SnG/MTT comparisson: is this typical?

I'd like to begin by saying that the advice I've gotten here has been a huge help. I really appreciate it. But, of course, I have another question.

I've now played enough sit'n'go tournaments to have an idea of my expected earnings. Obviously, I haven't hit the "long run" yet, but the pattern my earnings show is interesting and I thought I'd ask a question about it. Here's how I fare (I include entry fees in the calculations):

SnG (all $1+.1)
entries: 80 ... 1sts: 10 ... 2nds: 13 ... losses: $11.70, average of .15 per entry

MTT (all $1+.1, some $100 guarantee, some not)
entries: 8 ... 1sts: 1 ... 2nds: 1 ... 5ths: 1 ... winnings: $13.25, average of 1.66 per entry

Note that the first 20 or so of those SnG games were a major learning curve phase. Get rid of those and my net losses on SnG are about cut in half.

My immediate observation is that I should quit playing SnG games! However, I don't have anything close to statistical signifigance from my MTT games, so I'm not so sure. My question, therefore, is: is this typical? Should I assume that I will get a better return from MTT in general? Or just from the $100 guarantee games?

Also, in a related note... I am running this whole operation on an $88 bankroll. That seems to be just dandy for the swings I'm taking in $1 games. I'm considering allowing myself to enter the 5+.5 guarantee 250 MTTs as well, seeing as they should offer a good payout. However, I don't want to ruin my bankroll on it. Do you guys think it advisable to allow myself to enter those? I'm not in any hurry to move up if I shouldn't, but if it's profitable I don't see any reason to hold myself back.


Finally, I'd celebrate the total $1.55 winnings I've acrued, except that I went and blew $5.35 on stupid poker SnGs (I'm terrible at that game). So I'm actually out $3.80 on the whole. However, since that includes me entire learning curve since day 1, I'm still pretty chuffed ^_^ You guys really deserve the credit on this though, so my point is, thanks a bunch for the help.

 

Upwards & Onwards!

WhumpieJr,
There is one thing that seems apparent to me: You are enjoying playing blackjack tournaments. I do too. And so do many other people. And that’s great, important, and could be a mean in itself.

Ninety (yours) games could be indicative but not really conclusive. Your results suggest that your skill level is about average at this time, it doesn’t prove it, though. You may be excelling in some aspect of the game but there may be weaker points of your play. If anything, it just shows that there is room for growth and deeper understanding if you chose to invest time and effort to do so.

If you take top ten players from that site and let them play one thousand games (the way they do), divide their results into ten stretches of consecutive plays - you would find out that at least half of them (if not all) would have one hundred consecutive games with a negative outcome.

As to the skills, many people like to have them but treat it somewhat lighthearted – which is okay, as it is just a hobby for the overwhelming majority of bj tournaments participants.

The field is not difficult to beat if you desire to do so, just put in some real groundwork and combine it with practice and the effect will come very fast.
Good luck and see you at the tables,

S. Yama

 

Top ten..question.

What would be the SnG's percentages (won and in the money) of the top ten players playing all the time against each other?

 

Good Reply

Thanks S Yama For The Post You Have A Way Of Shedding Some Light On This Subject:d :d
MAYBE YOU SHOULD BE A TEACHER OR WRITE A BOOK

 

Wumpie,

Thanks for sharing with us. Many people, including myself, wonder about out level of playing – are we better or worse than average. To date I don’t believe that anyone has posted what a good/average/best/worst average would be for ONLINE playing – since it is relatively a new arena.

Many thanks to Archie for being so transparent with his results in the past as he inspired me to take a good hard look at my playing results/habits, etc.

As a newcomer to the field of TBJ I started online playing at Global and I was what they call dead money. I started with Bet21.com since the beginning in August 2006. My records are pretty good, and I am constantly trying to improve my record keeping.

Once again many thanks to Monkeysystem and others who have so unselfishly put out “systems” to keep track of results. They have been invaluable to me in my quest for self accountability and to see what my progress is with regards to online TBJ.

I do not have the experience like S. Yama or many of the other “pros” and long time players on this site – so I will refrain from making comments about your numbers. However, since I feel that this is an area that needs to be addressed but has not, I am going to show you my numbers for a comparison.

From August to January I played a total of 554 SNG. I won 97 and placed second in 77. My 1st place = 17.5% while 2nd place = 13.9% for a total of in the money (ITM) of 31.4% (174/554).

In the months of August and September these numbers were much lower than the overall average. For January alone:

Total SNG played 90
Wins 20/90 = 22.2%
Second 11/90 = 12.22%
ITM finishes 31/90 = 34.4%

So hopefully this gives you “something” to care it to. I can say this: there is a learning curve for each level of SNG – from the 1.00 to the 5.00 your percentages will drop at first because the differences in the way people play changes. The same will be true when you eventually go from the 5.00 to the 10 and 20 tables.

Is it possible to “make money” playing SNG’s? In the long run - probably not. I’ve been very lucky and I was in early. I’ve notice a much difference in the level of play from December to now, the end of February.

As far as quitting the SNG and only playing the MTT – tough call. I definitely believe that my MTT play is enhanced by all the SNG’s that I have played. I’ve seen many different styles and come up with over a half-dozen different schemes that I use, (similar to openings one with use when playing a chess match).

My PERSONAL advice is to enter the 5.00 MTT and to stick with the 1.00 SNG to protect your BR. The 1.00 SNG are good practice and shouldn’t drain your BR too much. The 5.00 MTT would be good exposure to higher tables. Try to stick to the 100 and 250 guarantee MTT because of the positive overlay.

It is my personal feeling that there will be more and more of the lower limit MTT’s in the future.

The most important thing that I can say is this: enjoy yourself. Have fun and learn. Also download Ultimate buddy so that you can “rail” some of the more successful players and see how to play. My recommendation would be some pros: K Smith, Joe Pane, Blair Rodman as well as board members who have done very well such as Archie and toonces among many others.

In the meanwhile see ya at the tables.

 

Learning

I think playing SnGs can be a bad thing not only for reasons such as the vig and how many hours they can consume but because of the brains ability to learn things that are detrimental to our game. Its hard to fight a trend of a raw probability of 2/7 or about .28. Our brains are wired to learn off repetition and hands on. So, it is hard to play game after game and make progress because for the most part it is failure following failure even at the rates in the 30% area you are failing at a 70% rate. I actually, imo now, believe SnGs are detrimental if played too often. I suggest a solid plan to limit the SnGs because if you play game after game your brain could be soaking up the bad habits. A plan to play a ratio of SnGs to MTTs is a good idea. Of course trends should be realized, if you are clicking and playing well play and extra SnG or so. But if you find yourself taking beatings walk away. This is petty much how to be a good player at a regular BJ table also, IMO.

There is lots of research on our brains ability to learn positive aspects of any game or anything for that matter. I did google and found one but there is so many more out there.
http://www.happychild.org.uk/acc/tpr/amz/1198rept.htm

 

Dear S. Yama,

A quick question for you - what is the real groundwork that you speak of? Is it reading/studying, etc.. and if so what do you recommend?

With regard to the practice - how is this best accomplished? Via SNG, MTT, or just observation of a table, using pen and paper to make bets, etc....

Finally do you find a difference between online versus live events - if so what?

 

Speaking of that, I've actually been using a spreadsheet to help me calculate. It makes things a lot faster. It takes fast fingers, but if you already have an idea of how you want to bet it cuts down on the grunt work. Here's how it works:

I have a column for each player's total and an empty column for their bets. As the round ends, I quickly update each player's total. As they bet, I toss in the bets.

Then, given the bets, I have columns that tells me what I must bet to take the high, keep the low, play for the split, play for a DD high, etc. I arrange the columns in order of those I will need the most often (low, high) to least often (split, DD high).

Thus, if I know I want to keep the high over the player to my right, I can quickly decide whether I want to all a little to the bet to also get the split on another player, for instance. I realize this about ruins me for live play, but I don't actually plan to do that much playing live, if any.

I don't know if anyone else has tried this, but I find it to be immensely helpful.

 

WhumpieJr,
Actually I think you doing yourself a disservice if you are using a program helping you making tournament decisions.

I don’t mind that it may be considered unfair to other players. But I do mind, if I were to care for you as a player, that you shutting down the best training tool you have for becoming a good player -which is your brain. Ever heard of this aphrodisiac called brain-on-blackjack?

Seriously, if you can write any good program – you can be a great player. It can be fun to build it and use it for a while, but somebody would have to pay me a lot of money for senseless inputting other players’ numbers and slavely/mindlessly follow the instructions.
And the real fun is not only in winning but to recognize as many important and significant details of the situation in the shortest possible time. That’s the real game to me.

S. Yama

 

head

I never use paper, excel, calculator or abacus to figure bets when playing online since you aren't allowed to do this in meatspace. I consider all my online games as training for "the big live game" and I don't want to get the same shock I did when I tried to count chips for the first time!!!

Cheers

Reachy

 

no golden/magic rules and shortcuts

Dear FGK,
You made me think how and what would be the best or fastest way to learn the arcane of blackjack and other casino games tournaments. It definitely would be a personal tutor (but be careful with the advertisers on the Internet ), and the second option would be a book that takes the mystery out of tournament strategies. Coincidently, many people in their posts and articles touched on the core of tournaments but I have not seen it spelled out or demystified yet.

It seems so simple to me now, but I also realize that it took me years of pondering many tournament ideas, often just wasting my and others time by trying to pry open doors that were either already open or never existed. There is basically no difference in general approach to the most of different casino games, though one needs to master different sets of statistical data and psychological specificity of each game. I actually planned my tournament book as one simple sentence that slowly and logically expands on every following page just by a few words introducing its entire complexity and then followed by tables, stats and examples. But I don’t see me being able to work on it until some time later next year.

My introduction to blackjack tournaments was many winters ago; I had been playing advantage blackjack already but in one casino I saw a man with great white mane and very characteristic laughter winning a cool hundred grand. I played in the next tourney myself and for sure I had to be dead money. Some time later after discussing some technical aspects of the game Richard R. from New Orleans handed me printout of computer simulations, at that time a staggering 150,000 rounds, dealer outcomes, chances of winning double down on busting hands and winnings if player stands on 12 and up. On the plane going back home I realized that this is also, in addition to fun, a very precise science.
I unnecessarily cluttered my understanding of tournament plays and was searching for shortcuts and golden rules that often times were rather a distraction than help. Then I had found Wong’s book, which was and still is a great tool for beginners and intermediate level players.
Personally, I have never embraced it because, though the material in it was put together nicely and individual pieces sounded competent, it contained too many contradictions and I had a feeling that the author never truly (organically) understood what was the main idea of tournament strategy.

Going back to your questions, fgk, I think everyone interested in bj tournaments will find and absorb information in different ways. Definitely it is easier now with new and more research done (if we could really use such important sounding word) and openness and convenience of the Internet.

Some general comments:
I think that one of the most important suggestions I can share would be that players trying to improve their game shouldn’t be asking what but should be asking why.
It is more beneficial to learn the reasons for effective solution to a problem than to memorize often working (but not always) “golden rules” and shortcuts.
During disputes they should try to see why one play is better than the other and not put all the creative and inventive efforts to find support for their personal choice.
They should simplify analyzed situation to discover and learn basic rules first.
The analyzed subject should contain all the necessary elements and they should not be changed until the whole process is completely understood.
And they should do as many analyses using real numbers and statistics as Reachy does.

Time for my next drink, bye
S. Yama

 

Let me clarify, the spreadsheet I wrote doesn't spit out an "answer" that I then bet. It just does calculation for me. I still have to decide whether I want to make a move, how big that move should be, etc. Also, I should say that I make a good 50% of the decisions without looking at the sheet. Generally I'll have an idea of what I want to bet on a given hand, and then use the sheet to see whether betting a little bit more will gain me the high or the split on someone.

I realize that I'm not honing my calculation skills as well as I could (though over time I find that I need to use the spreadsheet less). But, frankly, that's not a part of the game that interests me. I'd rather be thinking about strategy than crunching numbers.

I hadn't even considered the fairness issue until reading the response here. Again, in all frankness, it's a resource that's available to each and every person playing on that website. Not to use it is a choice, just like every other decision in the game. I would argue that a spreadsheet, as an essentially free resource (since everyone who plays online has a computer), is more fair even than reading books on the material, which cost extra money. Not that I expect people not to read the books. But it goes to show that a resource is a resource.

 

I must confess i have thought about doing a program just like you talked about. Since i love the game so much i confess also that I had too take the side of not using the program.....for one too distracting too input the update each hand and would talk all the TRUE FUN out of the game....using the MIND.
I do understand the motive too use the program...have got the math wrong and lost a tournie or two by messing up the math by 250.
But hey thats what makes it so much fun...the risk of loss

 

I can see this is going to be an uphill battle...

I want to redefine this "thing" I'm using as a *spreadsheet,* not a program. It doesn't tell me what to bet. All it does is tell me how *much* I *would* need to bet to take the high/low/split/whatever on someone else. I am still entirely responsible for making the decisions. It only calculates for me. Rather than taking the fun out of the game, it gets rid of the unfun parts, all the calculating. I hope I'm managing to get that across.

 

Using the spread sheet is cheating! Not only is it cheating ...you are slowing the game down to a snail pace and I see your type every day....you are recognizable as someone who takes 30 seconds for every move....standing on hard 20 against dealer 7 takes you 30 seconds...every simple play takes you 30 seconds...

Yes ok...its a toy and a learning tool....but its also a crutch and it will inhibit your brain power...

Want to learn faster ? Play the free rolls... 2 or three at a time and make good decisions as possible each hand in every game.

Analyizing a spread sheet has limited value ..the thought process involved is good though.

Put away the spread sheet... its cheating... and more importantly it is holding you back from developing your brains ability to to make these calculations.

I wouldnt be worried about playing against you even using a cheaters program...you are distracted and slow and routine!

I see many just like you who I suspect are entering plays...they slow a game down to a snails pace and often are outed by slow simplistic play..

You contention that everyone has a computer and therefore all is fair is hollow...If thats what you are interested in then why even have players? Just write a couple of programs and then let the copmputers have at it.

Sound like fun?

You are lucky ...you have a good site to play and you can watch and even play against some world class players.... play using your brain...it will exercise it into a high level BJ machine...

You are headed down the wrong path...you have gotten some good advice...what you do now is up to you.

Good luck.


I just read your last post....A spread sheet that is doing these calculations is a PROGRAM. All you are doing is entering the the best bet the program calculated for you...What you are doing would have you arrested in every casino in the world....I hope you can understand that.

 

Rando makes great points here and I would like to take it one step further.Last week one of the members asked why as of now are the on-line tournaments that have entry fees of 100 or more not included in the All In Magazine player ranking system.This is one of many reasons, there might be and could be, players using electronic devices or mechanical devices to determine the play or bets,players using other players who are skilled to play for them,Until these and a few more issue are resolved I think that it will be a while before the on-line ranking system is put into place.

Now for the most important reason, you will be a fish out of water if you use these tools in your decision making because if you decide to play in tournaments at casinos where the prize money can be in the hundreds of thousands and up to a expected 2 million in the UBT Tournament of Champions that will be held at Barona Valley Ranch Hotel and Casino in late Nov 2007.These tools that you will have become comfortable with with not be allowed at the table.Most of us here that take this game serious have worked and studied to improve our game to a point where we feel that on every bet, we have a good solid choice of what we want to bet and then how we want to play the hand.The cards we are dealt or receive on our hits are totally out of our control and this is where what ever luck factor is present in a tournament appears.The skill that is applied by some are the sizing of the bets the playing of the hands and knowing the chip counts of our opponents. 3 important tools that are at your disposal if you work and study this game.

As a veteran of many tournaments in the past not such much anymore as my ability to play as been limited by casinos I will share this with you the same situation's occur over and over again in tournaments the bankrolls will be different but the differences will be the same and most situations call for a specific bet that you will have made in the past.The ability to recognize the situation for what it is and draw upon your tournament memory as to what is the best course of action is very rewarding when it works out to your benefit,and its just as rewarding when you lose if you know that you played it to the best of your ability and not what some device told you to do.

Skill plays a big part in tournaments in the long run,because anyone can win one tournament but the skilled player will win more than anyone else over the long run.

So your choices are don't try to improve and somewhere down the road you may stumble your way to a tournament win.

Or lose the tools and use the best tool you have and that is your brain,the more you use it the longer it stays alive and you might just find yourself in the winners circle a lot more than the lazy players who spend to much time writing post after post of rubbish, instead of reading all the fruitful information that is shared here,by some of the most seasoned pro tournament players in the world.

Most of the top players of today didn't have this forum to learn and share information from.We learned the "Old Fashioned Way" which was trail and error with our money.You have a great source here don't waste it.

Joep

 

tip of the glacier

Anybody who has played online poker will undoubtedly have played against someone using far more sophisticated tools than a home-made spreadsheet. Pokertracker and Gametime+ come to mind. Much of the available software bolts onto your poker hosts software and can tell you odds, actions to take, bets, etc, all in real time, as well as more general analysis of hand history to highlight weaknesses in your play. It's only a matter of time before something similar is available for TBJ.

To re-iterate, I don't use artificial aids (i.e. that which wouldn't be available in a live tourney) but I don't have a real problem with people doing so, in fact it could be argued that it improves my game further. And let's face it, there is absolutely nothing that can be done about it so we have to live with it.

Cheers

Reachy

 

get it straight

Okay, I'm starting to get angry. You aren't listening to me. Chill out your preconceptions about what I've said for a minute and LISTEN! I'll respond to each point I've quoted.

I have not read anywhere that using a spreadsheet is cheating. Granted, I haven't read the terms and conditions. If it's cited in there as cheating, I will stop. If it's not, it's not cheating by any consentual rule.

I DO NOT slow the game down. If you want proof feel free to watch me play (DavidKay is my login). I am actually typically much faster than others. The reason is that I spend all my time thinking strategy and NONE calculating. If I didn't use the sheet I'd be much SLOWER. This may seem counter-intuitive to you, but again I'll ask you to consider that you have ZERO information on my spreadsheet, how I use it, how I play, etc. The reason that I'm fast is that I *already* know what I want to do on a given play. The spreadsheet just calculates how much it takes to do that. It's a HUGE time saver. Don't be condescending and tell me I take forever to stand on 20 against a 7. I'm not an idiot, and it doesn't support your point. I do not consult the sheet at ALL to stand/hit/etc. Only to calculate bet size. Further, I have gotten very fast at entering other players' totals/bets as they appear. If I'm first to act, it generally delays me by about 3-4 seconds. Otherwise, there is never a delay apart from my newbie strategic ponderances.

In response to the "why have players" comment, what you do not understand is that the spreadsheet is WORTHLESS for strategy. There is no cell in which an "answer" is placed. The ONLY G-D THING IT TELLS ME is how much I have to bet if I want to 1. take the low against each player, 2. take the high, 3. take the split, 4. take the dd high, 5. take the high against opponent dd. It doesn't suggest which one I ought to do. I have to do that. In fact, I generally do that before even looking at the sheet, I only consult the sheet for the specific NUMBER that I'm looking for. Is it now perfectly clear that the strategy/tactics are my own (borrowed, of course, from the expertise I find here)? I can't make it any clearer. I thought I had in my previous posts, but apparently I have to spell it out continuously to avoid angry responses. MY SHEET DOES NOTHING IN TERMS OF STRATEGY.

I quite agree that I am lucky to have a site such as this to obseve expert play. I watched one member of the site win 25000 satellite last night and enjoyed that very much. I also watched a "celebrity" member play. I consider that a rare chance. I am attempting to learn as much as I can about strategy from this valuable resource as possible. That's why I have something to get rid of the monotonous calculations.

In response to the final quoted comment, a program involves some type of if/then/and/but/etc logical operation. All the sheet does is essentially subtract my total from the other totals and then divide by two, multiply by two, etc so that I don't have to. It is a very simple operation. No ifs, thens, or elses. I'm not really talented enough to get that going, and if I was I would use Java or something. In conclusion, I must insist that you are DEAD WRONG when you say that I just enter the bet calculated (which would in fact contradict your point about slowing things down in the first place). The sheet doesn't even have a place where it TELLS me what to bet. That line does not exist. It only tells me what I must bet in order to do all of those things I mention above. I must choose which I want to do, and then modify for any unconsidered factors. There is no "answer" that it spits out. I use my brain! I just don't waste it calculating! I realize I can't take this to a live tourney, but there are none where I live so it's really quite unimportant. I'm doing this for fun and mental excercise, not to be on TV.

Please, read the entire post, consider that you have misunderstood what I'm doing. I understand that you may still object, but please do so having fully informed yourself. If you'd like to see the spreadsheet, I'd be happy to attach it here. It's 28kb.