Teaser from St. Ignace

This is actually how it went down in my quarterfinal.

It's the last hand, and you have a mere $50 lead over your only opponent in a tiebreaker playoff. Minimum bets are $50, max is $500. No surrender unless dealer shows Ace. BJ pays 2 to 1. Bankrolls are unimportant, both you and your opponent have enough to do whatever you want. You have to act first, there are no secret bets and no "mulligan" Power Chips left. What do you bet?

I'll post this in two parts. The second part will come after some responses to part 1.

 

My bet would be

Anywhere from $480 to $500

Billy C

 

Not bad, Billy - not bad. But why?

Two quick additions to the teaser:

1. Your opponent has already shown to be a somewhat weak player with little experience in the nuances of TBJ, and
2. Tell us "why' in your response. Knowing the "why" will help everyone learn!

 

My reasoning is-----

Even if opponent is weak I'm guessing he/she will bet max (being a funny money tourney). With BJ paying 2 to 1 I'm betting at least $480 to cover the double possibilities. Being I'm up $50 I still win by $10 if we both have successful doubles.

Billy C

P.S. Now if this was a live money tourney (there were several not that long ago) I would probably do things differently.

 

Oops!!!

Should have left the P.S. off my last post. No reason to play differently even if it had been a live money event.

Billy C

 

Am I missing something?

I don't see how this scenario differs from the standard two-player, small-lead proposition. I don't think the 2:1 BJ makes any real difference, and the fact that the lead is exactly one min bet (making a tie possible if BR2 pushes) is unfortunate, but I would prefer to tie and then presumably have a further round, this time acting second, than to give up the low and become an underdog.

So I would think it comes down to the usual quandary - How sure are you that if you bet the max BR2 will match you? And how sure do you need to be to make it the right play? I refer you to Monkeysystem's excellent analysis -
https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/posts/31207

So I would bet $50 unless I was about 50% sure that BR2 would match a $500 bet.
(And, when possible, I would surrender the $50 bet to avoid a tie, if BR2 has made a big bet in response.)

 

2 to 1 BJ

The difference the 2 to 1 payoff on BJ's makes is that it allows players to double their bet on ANY first two cards dealt to them. Some tourney venues won't allow doubling down a BJ and the payoff is the typical 3:2.

Billy C

 

Really? I would always assume you can double on any two cards, regardless of the BJ payoff, unless that is explicitly disallowed.

But, in any case, my point is that I don't see that whether a BJ pays 2:1 or 3:2, and whether or not you can DD on any two cards changes the fundamental proposition -

Ordinarily, a $50 bet would make BR1 a 56% favourite, but with no surrender and a lead of only $50, a tie is a possibility. I make the chances -
Tie: 5%
BR2: 44%
BR1: 51%

A $500 bet opens up the possibilty of BR2 taking the low, and doubling down if necessary to beat a BR1 single-bet win, the 'strong variation' of Curt's Revenge, which I gather makes BR2 a 55% favourite.

One impact I can see of the 2:1 BJ is that if you happen to be dealt a BJ then Curt's Revenge is foiled; BR2 would need to be able to split a pair and get a third bet on the table in order to overtake you. But since the probability of a BJ is only 4.7%, that will only make a small dent in BR2's advantage.

 

Different Houses----Different Rules

You'll probably never see two tournament venues with the exact same format and/or rules. One casino in MN doesn't allow doubling for LESS (equal amount only). Some permit doubling down BJ's and others don't. Needless to say it's a moot point at the places with 2:1 payoff.
I'm sure your stats are correct and I can certainly see why you would choose the $50 bet. I'm sure LeftNut will correct me if I'm wrong but I think this was a pitch (2 deck) tourney and the "count" could dictate the bet, also!

Billy C

 

I think 2:1 payoff moves the edge into the players court. The game of BJ becomes a players advantage.

 

Oh, absolutely. I do actually play at one online tournament site where you cannot DD on a BJ. But all these teasers tend to start with a minimal description of the rules in force, and there's an implicit assumption that anything not mentioned is defaulting to the most typical value, or is simply not relevant to the teaser.

You'd think it would be needless to say, but I actually didn't quite get what you were saying prior to this point. I thought you were somehow infering that a 2:1 payoff also meant that you were allowed to double down, which would be a little pointless!

Only in terms of EV, which obviously isn't relevant to a single-hand shootout. I think there was some debate in a previous thread about how many rounds a tournament would have to last to warrant an increased bet size in order to benefit from the 2:1 BJ payout. I would think that most tournaments are too short for it to be a good idea.

In this scenario, if BR2 is normally a 55% favourite after taking the low against a BR1 $500 bet, then with a 2:1 BJ payout this presumably reduces to something like -
(0.953 * 55%) + (0.047 * 3%) = 52.42% + 0.14% = 52.56%

i.e. either no BR1 BJ and the normal 55% applies, or BR1 gets a BJ and then 3% (a guesstimate of the chances of winning three bets) applies.

 

Yes!!!

If you can count and get 2:1 payoff BJ's, quit your day job now!

Billy C

 

Gentlemen. Gentlemen, Gentlemen:

Let me reproduce the original scenario:

Now this is classic "BLACKJACK TOURNAMENTS 101": Two players, BR1 bets first - BR1's bet is his lead minus a chip. But he cannot bet $45 so his bet becomes the minimum bet allowed which is $50. That's it, you apply the rule and hope for the best. London Colin laid out the odds and one cannot do better with fancy play.

Here is what is irrelevant under this scenario:

BJ pays 2:1 - It could pay 50:1 and BR1's best bet is still $50.
Count is high. This was not in the scenario.
Number of decks don't matter since the count is not in the scenario.
Doubling rules don't matter.
Live money or funny money.
Knowledge possessed by BR2.
Everything else.​

I have found that at times, BJTers make things more complicated than they really are. Given the time restraints in most tournaments, one must have a set of basic rules firmly implanted in one's mind (his toolbox) before play begins. Then when circumstances are right, pull that rule from your toolbox. It becomes a no brainer.

 

Gentlemen - Without revealing (yet) what I did and what happened, let me remind you that there is no surrender here unless the dealer shows an ace. Billy was right, this was a 2-deck pitch tournament but the count was immaterial to me in this case because I haven't a clue about counting (altho this does not impact the teaser as stated).

Barney is right - 2:1 BJ's moves the basic game's advantage to the player vs. the house.

As an aside, I can't see any advantage at all to doubling a BJ when BJ pays 2:1. If you bet $100 and get BJ, you win $300 and profit by $200. If you double that BJ, you get $200 on the table and win $400 - for a profit of the same $200. Am I missing something here?

 

That can't have any bearing on how BR1 should bet -

• If you don't know what BR2 is going to do, then bet $50.
• If you are sufficiently confident that you can predict their bet (e.g. $500, regardless of what you do), then correlate with it.
• If you have bet $50 and the dealer shows an ace, then take the opportunity to surrender (assuming BR2 has responded with a big bet).

What Billy meant was that a 2:1 BJ payoff helps if the rules forbid you from doubling down on a BJ (since you never then would wish to double down on a BJ ). But I assume that was not the case here. It wouldn't change how you should bet, in any case.

 

I don't see why the size of BR2's bet makes any difference - surrendering would stop BR2 from a possible draw with BR1 (and therefore give BR1 the victory) if BR2 pushes the dealer. BR2's bet in this case is immaterial.

As a side note not really related to a "teaser". I love tournaments where you a BJ pays 2:1 and you can double a BJ for 2 reasons :
1) It gives the ploppy a chance to take "even money" when he should take insurance. This provides the possibility of an opponent having a lower bankroll.
2) One time I beat an opponent who doubled on a BJ on the recommendation of the tournament director. As a result, that opponent lost the DD and I won the table. The opponent would have won the table if he didn't DD.

 

Knowing this is a weak or player a 480 bet should open the door wide
for this person to make a max bet. I think thats a key. Your 480 leaves you lows and his to grab. Of course the 2 to 1 BJ doesnt increase your chance of winning, but it does have an impact on the payouts. The 480 gives you potential to cover anything but a low bet by the "weak" player. I think they are both good bets,
but the player experience is a key for this situation.

 

The question was-----

What do you bet???
I've been told that some people count cards. If I had that ability and was looking at a +12 "true count" I have to go max bet (remembering that LeftNut said the opponent is a weaker player). My assumption is that he/she has no idea what the count is and doesn't consider it a factor.

Billy C

 

If BR2 bets < 100 then BR1 has the high and the low.
If BR2 bets < 150 then BR1 has possibility of doubling down to regain the high, while keeping the low.

There might also be the possibility of splitting a pair and doubling or resplitting, to get even more $50 bets out, and correlate with bigger BR2 bets. But a really big bet from BR2 will be out of sight and offer no such opportunities.

A few times, I've had people bet just enough to win by a single chip in these situations, and been in a position to correlate with them by doubling down.

 

Your points are well taken.



Now the question of what to do if faced against a perceived weak player. Trying to guess an opponents bet (or play) is always difficult. So do you:
A) want to have the odds in your favor irregardless of what your opponent does?
OR
B) Do you want the odds in your favor if, and only if, your opponent makes a mistake?


I opt for number A, which results in my bet being $50. If I start with the odds in my favor and the opponent makes a mistake then my odds just went up. Trying to second guess another player can cost dearly. Just ask some of the seasoned players that just played at the Winstar.


So LeftNut, let's get on with the second part of your teaser. I think we've pretty much exhausted the bet question without a consensus.