The Best Bet #2

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by BlueLight, Aug 2, 2012.

  1. BlueLight

    BlueLight Active Member

    This teaser comes from a modified last hand at the Golden Nugget.

    Dealer Stands on H17 S18, BJ Pays 1.5-1
    Min Bet 10, Max Bet 500, Bet interval 10
    Insurance Bet interval 5

    Player.......BkRll........Bet

    ALLEN........715........500
    BAKER......1000..........?
    CHUCK.......845

    BAKER wants to win by taking the high. BAKER knows that CHUCK is a good player. What is BAKER's best bet or range of bets to accomplish this goal.


    .......................BlueLight
     
  2. PlayHunter

    PlayHunter Active Member

    If Baker wants to take the high, then his best bet would be at least 480, I think. (-Other way he can not take the high without giving the low to Chuck-)

    --But if surrender would be allowed (and no double for less) then, if I were in Bakers`s shoes I would choose to bet 300.

    IF surrender after split allowed, I think Chuck should bet 380, in response to Baker`s 480 bet. If surrender after split not allowed, Chuck should split bank.
     
  3. BlueLight

    BlueLight Active Member

    This is a one advance this round.
    No Surrender.
    Double for less allowed but not after splitting (as per Golden Nugget rules).

    BAKER wants too win by taking high.

    CHUCK will try to win the best way he can after BAKER's bet.

    What is BAKER's best bet to take high?


    ...........................BlueLight
     
  4. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    I've learned that it's best to think about BlueLight's teasers before answering, because there is usually some subtlety involved which goes beyond the conventional. Once again, I am hesitant to answer, because I don't see what that subtlety is, yet. However perhaps my (probably incorrect) answer will get others thinking and we can figure it out together.

    The first thing I see is that BAKER can not take any form of the high without giving up the low to CHUCK. In fact, BAKER can not outright cover CHUCK's possible double down.

    A bet by BAKER of 470 will cover ALLEN's best possible result (blackjack - not double down). With this bet, BAKER can cover CHUCK's max bet blackjack or double down with a double of 220 without sacrificing the low to ALLEN. However, I don't think that he will have to. Because CHUCK is a known to be a good player, he will likely take the first low and bet 310 or less and BAKER will have his possible double covered. If BAKER bets 480 or more, then CHUCK can take the first low but also beat BAKER with a double.

    So, I think that 470 is the correct bet.
     
  5. BlueLight

    BlueLight Active Member

    Yes 470 is the correct bet!

    If BAKER takes the High with a max bet of 500; CHUCK can keep the Low with a bet of 340 and still be able to Double to take the High if BAKER gets a good hand.
    By BAKER betting 490 or 480 CHUCK can still take the Low and Double for the high. However with BAKER betting 470 and if CHUCK takes the Low with a bet of 310, CHUCK can no longer take the high with a Double.

    Some lower bets by BAKER would also work for BAKER vs CHUCK but would not cover a BlackJack by Allen.


    The actual situation was:

    Player.........BkRll....Hold..........Bet......Cards.......Action

    ALLEN..........600.....100..........500.......8+9
    BAKER........1000.....500..........500.......5+2
    BlueL...........845.....505..........340.......A+J

    Dealer................................................8


    There was a chip count before going into this last hand. I knew that I could trail by 160 and take the Low (If CHUCK bets max) and Double for a Tie for the High. Trailing by 155 I could take the LOW and Double for the High.

    I did NOT figure this out at the table when the situation came up. I've noticed that many players bet the max or half max (if a single chip) on the last hand and wondered how far I could trail and take the low. For a 500 max bet with a 10 betting interval I could trail by 160 take the low and tie for the high with a double (or tie for the low and take the high with a double). I worked this out before the tournament began.
    For example with a max bet of 1000 and a 25 betting interval I could trail by 300.
    I would never have been able able to confidently work this out at the table in close situations. When the situation came up I could see that could not get sloppy and hold back say 15 more than BAKER.

    If BAKER hits to 16, 17, 18 I would have stayed with BJ. If BAKER hits to 20 or 21 (a very likely winning hand) I would have doubled on my BJ (that only pays 1.5-1). If BAKER hits to 19 I'm not sure what I would have done, probably stayed which is very wrong; I need to double.

    What actually happened was:

    ALLEN stood. (He should not give up and try to hit to 20 or 21 in case BAKER hits to 19 and I double to a low total and the Dealer hits to a 19 or 20)

    BAKER seeing my BJ panics and doubles on his total of 7 gets a 10 for a total of 17.

    BlueL now sees that he cannot now take the high, stands with the BJ which pays 510 will take care of a push by BAKER.

    The Dealer turns over a 10 for 18 and I advance.


    .........................BlueLight
     
    PlayHunter likes this.

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