Min bet 5, Max bet 500, BJ pays 2-1, No surrender The situation is as shown below. Player.........BkRll..........Bet BR1.............500..........500 You.............380..........??? Some of the possible questions. 1) What is your best bet or range of bets and why? 2) If BR1 stands with a stiff what do you do? 3) If BR1 ends up with 19 what do you do? ..............................BlueLight
The situation seems straightforward, but given another recent thread on brain cramps, perhaps that's what's happening to me here Without any math at all, one could play it this way: He has the high, you can have the low and, if you bet enough, your win can take his push and your blackjack can take his win, so you keep one chip and bet the rest. The lower limit which leaves the above possible is 311. In this case, he either wins and you're toast (unless you have blackjack), or he loses and you're golden. Your hand is irrelevant. Once again, if he wins you're toast, if he loses you're golden, regardless of your hand. What you're interested in here is his push. If he pushes, you have to win, so you must hit to at least 20. Since he can only push if the dealer gets 19, and he wins (you're toast) or loses (you're golden) otherwise, you would stand on 20 or better.
Besides betting 315-375 for the BJ possibility about 5%, I can see a couple of other options. You can bet 125 which would allow you to get 3 bets on the table if you get a splitable hand. You might gain one bet and beat a push by BR1. If you bet 130-185 you can also split and perhaps end up winning one bet (with a push and a win). I don't know which of the 3 options above are the best long run play. Gronbog has already answered the other 2 questions. Larry
(Using my best Forrest Gump accent) "I may be a simple man....." but that snip from Gronbog's post sums up what I would do. Keep it simple. Bet it all except one chip. Unless I get a natural, the opponent must push or lose for me to have a chance no matter what I do. Whatever he ends up with for a total, I'm hitting until I have a strong hand or bust because the only way my total matters is in the case of his push. If surrender was available, this teaser gets a bit more complicated!
Yes, if surrender is available, you now have the option of betting 250, giving you the ability to surrender back for the win should your opponent surrender. The price you pay is that your BJ no longer beats your opponent's win, however your win does still beat your opponent's push. Just as a guess, I think I would make that trade and bet 250. The answers for questions 2 and 3 still hold and you would only surrender if your opponent did so first.
Hint There is one and only one bet that keeps all the chances of the range of bets suggested in the posts AND this bet also gives an extra chance (or two) to win that all the other bets don't have. ....................................BlueLight
I admit that I am stuck. I don't see how you can cover opponents win without getting a BJ with at least 315 out there and that would not allow any splits. Larry
I'm stumped too. The only other bet that I see that covers all of the situations we discussed in the original scenario but changes anything is to bet all in. That gives up the low in exchange for a possible playoff. But I don't see that as an improvement. I knew, since this was BlueLight's scenario, that it wasn't really going to be a simple as it seemed. Now I can't wait find out what we're all missing!
I think I may have it (version 2) Suppose both players are dealt a BJ and the dealer shows an ace. In that situation, as BR2 you would like to have enough chips held back to win by taking insurance. (Assuming even money is not taken by the all-in BR1.) If you bet exactly 315, holding back 65, then you can achieve this - Insure for 65 and you will win if the dealer has a BJ (510 to 500), but lose if the dealer does not have a BJ (945 to 1500). Without insurance you would lose whether or not the dealer has a BJ (either 380 to 500, or 1010 to 1500). [Apologies to those who saw my first attempt at this, which contained a glaring error! ]
Colin got it! Yes a bet of 315 is the only bet that keeps all the chances of the range of bets givin in the above posts AND has a winning insurance bet chance. Come to think he was the one who solved my teaser on "The "Peek Effect". The 2nd possibility was if BR1 takes even money (if allowed) then you do not take insurance. If a bet of 320 is initially made, then a 60 insurance bet will only get YOU to 500 and tie with BR1. If a bet of 310 is initially made and if BR1 wins his hand then a BJ by YOU will get you to 1000 and tie with BR1. Only a bet of 315 will win and not tie. If you are in a tournament and a player with one 500 chip left bets it and you have less but 380 or more then don't just automatically bet all but one chip, give yourself the tiny extra chance at no cost. .............................BlueLight
now you have 15 seconds to act With 15 seconds to act...Who got 315 now??? Gonna have to commit 315 to memory for a 500.00 all in bet by br1...or have a qicker mental caculator...
There are two good points here. There is no way that we can all remember every specific move for every specific situation we run across. Like a golfer who has a set of "swing thoughts" for difficult situations, I take the approach of having a set of "computation thoughts" (?) that I go through. In the future, I will now add the possibility of insurance to my computation thoughts. What those thoughts will be is still TBD. One way to deal with limited time is to start thinking about what you will do in various situations before you have to bet and even before your key opponent(s) bet. This can buy you some valuable seconds. Another way is to determine a "good" bet and then use the remaining time to try and refine it. In this case, I would not have come up with 315 in 15 seconds, but the more common bet of holding back one chip is also a good bet.
Great teaser! I'll applaud BlueLight's 315 bet, BUT the point of coming up with that in the limited time is very valid. I have watched excellent national-level players make huge blunders in an attempt to be brilliant. All too easy to miss something rather obvious while trying to cover one more micro-percentage possibility. If you're under the gun with the clock ticking and can still manage all the possibilities, I'd tip my cap to you. :cheers:
Calculating the Bet For this type of situation you should bet just enough so that a 2-1 BJ by you will cover a win by BR1. That bet should very likely be able to cover a push by BR1. Don't worry about the very rare triple BJ situation. If it occurs just take the insurance and hope you have enough insurance money. Concentrate on taking care of the first 2 situations. This was a teaser where people get to use pencil and paper and as much time as needed. I'm a big believer in keeping it simple and try to keep it simple at the table. So I miss out on a 2% by playing it simple; big deal. It's a lot better than being "brilliant" and screwing up and miss out by 40%. What were some of the huge blunders that you saw made by players trying to be brilliant. Leave the names involved unmentioned. ................................BlueLight
These comments remind me of a dilemma which I have never really come up with an answer for :- Generally speaking is it better to go for the top or the bottom of a range of bets which you have identified as being equivalent? In either case you may benefit from ways to win which you had not had time to consider when you initally made the bet. By going for the bottom of the range, you potentially gain from being able to get more of your unbet chips into play, such as was the case with the insurance bet in this teaser, or in other cases it might be by multiple resplits. You may also benefit from unexpected errors from your opponent(s), giving you the low which you would not have had had you bet at the top of your range. On the other hand, by going for the top of the range you may also cover scenarios which you had not considered (particularly if there are multiple opponents and some of the lower BRs might be able to pass you with a double.) E.g., a 3:2 BJ payoff for you might lock out some of those possibilities.
