These are the 16 players who were awarded the last 16 seats for next month's Million Dollar Tournament. Congrats Albert Vodvarka David Morganstein Carl Gigli David Wilkie C.Margaritis Ernest Ewald Claude Genier Thomas Phillips Joseph David John Chasel Henry Everett Marilynn Bianch-Rossi Robert Hough Donald Nelson William Fisher The 16th player ask that their name not be revealed There will be more than 8 wild cards drawn next month as at least 3 players have qualified more than once and one of our members has passed away.As of now it looks like at least 12 wild cards to be drawn.Good luck to all that will need one.It's tough enough to qualify one time, and we have some who have done it more than once, you have to love it.
Not player 16... but I had my shot for the brass ring. I was fortunate to make it to the table in round 3 shooting for the sweet 16. My wife was there recording all my bets, cards, dealer cards and outcome of each hand thus documenting what turned out to be not the best run of cards (13 losses in 17 hands). During the shuffle, I did a chip count and found I was 1000 behind BR2. I would be betting last on the first hand after the shuffle (hand 18) and made the decision to make a catch-up bet here for 1000 putting at risk about ¼ my bankroll (which was 4200). I was dealt 2, 9 vs dealer Q and went for the lead with a DD. I caught a 4 and the dealer made a hand. I now knew a max bet of 2500 was in order, but my dilemma was when? I had never played a tournament with more than 25 hands before—my usual style is to play conservative until 5-6 hands from the end before betting to correlate, take the lead, etc. I opted to bet minimum waiting for the button to pass again. The end result was a BR of 2550 on hand 24 where I went all-in and busted out. So, my question is... Given the circumstances (a significant part of which is that I would bet last on the final hand) what do you think of the timing, bet amount, and play of the hand for the catch-up bet at hand 18? I would appreciate the opinion of more seasoned players than I, particularly veterans of the Hilton Million. --jr
Sweet 192 Joep, Can You List All That Qualified For The Past 12 Months For The LV Hilton Million Next Month?
No double You bet should have been big enough to get the lead with a straight win.The 11 double is a basic double but when it makes up half your bankroll you cant afford to lose that bet.I would have bet a little more than 1,000 to take the lead.I try never to bet that much of my bankroll unless it enough to take the lead.Basic Strategy doubles are not always the right choice in tournaments.As far as the rest of the qualifiers I have submitted all that I have .You can look them up under Sweet 16
Some Thoughts It sounds like you made the proper bet here -- waiting until you were last to act & then betting to take the lead. But making this kind of catch-up bet is also dependent on other factors -- like, just because you wait until last to act, your bet must still be a Contrarian one (chip leaders must make smaller bets vs. your Big bet), AND your 1000 bet must cover not only what you are behind the chip leaders, but must encompass their current bets as well (you must assume they will win if you win). That way you are getting maximum benefit (taking the lead) for maximum risk (putting a large bet on the table). As far as the double down goes, your only concern when making this large catch-up bet was to take the high and become chip leader. So you should only double (for much less) if your original bet wasn't high enough to accomplish this primary goal (which it should've been, considering you bet last). You're already in a risky enough situation (being behind other players with a big bet out). Hitting the hand (rather than doubling) makes more sense here, because you are not in 'chip accumulation mode' or 'lock the low' mode, but rather 'catch-up' mode. One of the things i always try to do when selecting a bet or action is to ask myself, "what will i do if i LOSE these chips?" Obviously, we all know what will happen if we WIN -- but more often than not, this is not the case (as evidenced by your 13 losses in 17 hands). So by doubling, you put this thought process in jeopardy -- with 3200, you still have a shot at some small correlations, but with 2200 (after doubling and losing), you're pretty much in an all-in scenario. And you have to ask yourself, "the next time i am last to act, what if everyone is betting BIGGER and my contrarian bet will not be as effective?" Then you've wasted another 5 hands, and to no avail. like a chess game, tourney play involves thinking several 'moves' or hands into the future, and analyzing not only the best % of success in the present moment, but starting to compare the % of success of SEQUENCES of events -- in this case, the % success of winning your double down vs. a dealer 10 is intimately linked to the % success of winning TWO big bets in a row (an all-in on your $2200, and then another catch-up bet to make up your original $1000 difference) due to the corrolary of "what will i do if i lose these chips?" -holly d.
Tuff Nice post Hollywood. Tough luck Jackaroo, to get that close and hit that run of hands. That double (11 vs 10) will win 6 times in 11 trys (on average) so it is the right play, but here I don't think it was. Risk vs reward. It may have been hard "not" to double. After that many losing hands you can almost start to think you are "due" (you are not) and get $$ in your eyes, looking at what a winning double would do for you. And Jackaroo you know that if you didn't double, that card would have changed spots in mid-air and would have been the King of Clubs, don't you. Sometimes you have to guard against making the "right" plays. This is where a new tournament player has trouble. (not that you are) I once almost hit 10-2 vs dealers 7, on the last hand. That was the only was I could have lost, by taking a hit. I had the high & the low on the only other player close to me and he stayed on his 10-6. I had a lock, if I didn't hit. Conditioned reflex I guess ? You see a 10-2 vs 7 and think "hit". With hands like that, I don't think there was much you could have done. Better luck next time.
Money Management The situation Jackaroo describes is a common one. Here's some additional thoughts (senior members etc., feel free to comment/correct me). Generally it is better to catch up with one big bet rather than several medium bets, partially because we lose a hand more often than we win (in the long run). Of course there are exceptions to the above: 1) In this case we have the option betting just more than 1/2 the deficit; then we can DD if the situation warrants it, or surrender if we get lousy cards (thereby preserving chips). This flexibility comes in handy when it's not too late in the round, but it's important to note that we can easily surrender ourselves into a deficit that can't be overcome (i.e., you've got to take a shot at some point). In Jackarool's case I'd take the "slightly more than 1/2" approach since we have 12 hands to go, 2) Positionally, there's at least one more opportunity to see the other player's bets before making yours (how many players remain at the table?). You may be able to wait that long if the chip leaders don't get too far ahead of you. 3) You might bet of "slightly more than 2/3" of your deficit to enhance a DD possibility or take advantage of a blackjack. Some of the players on GSN's WSOBJ 2 used this technique; of course one must predetermine when this is appropriate before even sitting down at the table. 4) Range betting is yet another consideration. Betting enough (or contrarily) to remain within a reasonable range of the leaders (especially in mid game) is often all you need to bet to avoid undue risk. 5) As TX points out, luck is a huge factor. Nothing works all the time, of course, and we've seen many less experienced tournament players do quite well. The most disciplined masters can be defeated. 6) Practically all of these ideas come from my education here at BJT University (hope I got it right). Thanks to professors Yama, Smith, Pane, et. al.
Comments and advice from Joep, Hollywood, Midnite and Snapper concerning risk vs reward of the DD at that point in the round are cogent and Hollywood’s additional point about considering the consequences of losing the bet before making it is equally compelling. I think my emotions may have gotten the better of me in making the hand 18 decision after that demoralizing first shoe. Snapper’s item 6) about the BJT University is right on. Thanks again to everyone for sharing your experience on this site. --jr
Thanks for the insightful replies to this thread. It has given me several more things to consider when looking for the proper bet. This is such a humbling game. The more experience I get, the more I find that I have to learn! Jackaroo, please don't sell your performance short. Of the group of us that ate together at the Henderson Thursday night, he was the ONLY one to advance out of the first round! (and the only one trying the Hilton for the first time I might add). I am always looking for things I could (or should) have done differently ...that's the way we improve our game. It was great seeing so many board friends this weekend and meeting several new friends as well. Congrats to all the qualifiers and I look forward to seeing you all next month. Unfortunately this year, I'm in the wild card line
I've been feeling a lot of that lately myself. The process of writing up all those WSOB shows has been a humbling one for me. It seems as though each decision gets tougher the more you look at it. I've learned a lot by forcing myself to think through every single person's decision at the table. But, more often than not, I know I'm still overlooking ideas. This game is a lot more complicated than any of us know. Of course, that's what makes it fun. Frustrating at times, but still fun.
Wild card chances Does anyone know what the odds are of getting drawn for a wildcard next month? It sounds like several people here plan on going, but like me, would need a wildcard to play. I think I heard there will be 12 names selected, but how many people actually show up? Also if you played multiple times, does that mean you get multiple names put in the barrel, so if only two people show up, but one person came 10 times trying to qualify, and the other only once, instead of being 1 of 2 odds, it would be 1 in 11 for one person and 10 in 11 for the other? I also heard that last year a couple of wildcards only played one qualifier, not sure if that is true or not. Pat PS: Good luck to all of you that don't need to wildcard to play next month!
Some answers I don't want to venture an ill-informed guess about how many tickets were in last year's drawing, but I can answer a few of your questions... Yes, you get an entry for each time you entered. If you played 10 times, you'll have 10 entries in the drawing. If you entered only once, you'll get just one ticket in the drum. I believe you are correct, and some of last year's drawing winners had only one ticket in. Note that if you are not present, your tickets aren't even in the drum. You must register on the Thursday to pick up your drawing tickets. In addition to the 12 drawings we already know about, any qualified seat where the player does not register on Thursday will also have his or her seat given away via drawing. Last year, there were some people who had qualified but had flight delays and missed the registration time. They lost their seats. Last of all, to show you how lucky a person can be in the drawing, Faye Sontag was drawn TWICE last year (or was that year one?). Only one counted, but hey, that's pretty lucky.
Luck with wildcards That is something to get drawn twice. I haven't even gotten drawn once...but who knows, maybe I should give this a shot.. I think someone said there were only 64 people who showed up for the drawing last year. That seems low, but maybe it was right. That probably means a couple of hundred names in the drum since I am sure a lot would be multiple attempts at qualifying, but that might be better than some other wildcard drawings. Maybe someone else has better information. Also, can someone tell me what time you have to show up to register by? I think I threw away my letter already. Like Ken said, if I decide to come, I sure better plan to be there early. The air fares are not to bad, I could just buy a ticket to get to the drawing and plan on returning on the red eye if I don't get drawn. If I got lucky, at least I might be able to afford to buy a ticket back for a few days later...
about 2 1/2% chance If 500 people show up which I believe is a conserative number and the players have an average of 3 wild card tickets in the drum that should make you a 2 1/2 % chance of getting drawn.With 2 tickets you should be about 1.7% and with 1 ticket only .08%.Where is Yama when you need him...
Mr. Lucky 6 tickets? If your name is Kenny E. you only need one anyway...LOL. JoeP what are the odds on Kenny getting drawn? I may want to bet on that. Talking to Les (Tacker) this weekend, I was told that something like 4 players have qualified more then once (add 4 wild cards) and one passed away (not sure who, add 1 more). I know a couple of players this passed week had already qualified (not sure how them did), but it is looking like 12 - 13 wild cards for next month. If your already in, PLEASE NOTE: you have to be registered at the LV Hilton by 7:00 P.M. or forfit your spot. This happened last year, be sure you give yourself plenty of time to get there and register. Good luck to everyone that's in and all those coming out for the wild cards. Don't forget the Stardust is hosting a tournament after the LV Hilton on 15-17. If you have any problems getting in just contact me and I will try to help get you in.
Not as bad as Joe says How many tickets are potentially available? If we assume an average of 130 players per month over the 12 months, that's 130x12 = 1560 tickets in the drum. 16x12=192 people advanced. If we assume they each tried twice on average before making the sweet 16, that takes 384 more tickets out of the barrel. So, we're down to 1176 tickets if all non-qualifiers show up. Since people with more tickets are more likely to show up, we'll say that three-fourths of the remaining tickets will be there. (That sounds high to me.) With 882 tickets in the barrel and 12 drawn out, here are the chances: 1 ticket: 1.4% 2 tickets: 2.7% 3 tickets: 4.0% 4 tickets: 5.3% 5 tickets: 6.6% 6 tickets: 7.9% 7 tickets: 9.2% 8 tickets: 10.4% 9 tickets: 11.6% 10 tickets: 12.9% 11 tickets: 14.1% 12 tickets: 15.2% Now, since Kenny E has 6 tickets in, I estimate his chances at around 7.9%. A fair bet if that is accurate would be laying (1/.079)-1 to 1, or 11.6 to 1. I'll take the worst of it on this bet, and take Kenny at 10:1 odds to be drawn in. I'll put up $25, you put up $250. The first person to reply on this thread that wants my action gets it. If Kenny's drawn in, I win $250. We'll also need confirmation that Kenny really has exactly 6 tickets in the drawing.
This might be a good way to get back 25.00 for all my entry fee's. I will let you know soon. Kenny E.
Stealing my bet Damm Ken, you trying to steal my bet...LOL. I was hoping Joep would put a line out on Kenny getting drawn so I could get a bet down. Damm Kenny you gotta feel good about your chances, both Ken and I are wanting to bet on you getting drawn as a wild card. Get that Kenny E. luck in gear for next month.
