The Last Hand Nickler

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by Monkeysystem, Mar 15, 2006.

  1. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Here's the situation: Last hand, two advance, no surrender, BJ's pay 3:2, betting range 5-200.

    ==> 342.50 bet 200
    370 bet 170
    45 bet 45
    352.50 bet 5
    You 390 bet ?

    A bet of 185 gives you first high and second low while covering the DD's with your own DD. It satifies the two-advance strategy in Wong's book for both three and four players in contention. However, there are lots of ways to lose.

    A bet of 5 gives you first low and a lock over BR3. The only way you can lose is for both BR2 and BR4 to get paid.

    One would think the bet of 185 is far superior to the bet of 5, as it's the textbook bet. Running this through 65,000 iterations in a simulation in Wong's software yielded an interesting result.

    Comments?
     
    Monkeysystem, Mar 15, 2006
    #1
  2. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    More options the better

    I believe 2nd low and first high is so much stronger than first low and no high.You always want to give yourself as many options as possible to win .Betting 5 in this situation limits your options. Holding back 205 and betting 185 is the superior play .Dealer flips a blackjack you win dealer bust you win your opponents DD you can DD behind them just to many ways to win The other bet of 5 and your hand means nothing I like to have my hand have some sort of value to it.Otherwise I make it to easy for my opponents
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2006
    Joep, Mar 15, 2006
    #2
  3. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    Unless Wong got rid of bugs and rewrote the program his tournament software was not worth the postage you had to pay to have it shipped to you. Try some situations and use CA to see how much off this software is, not to mention wrong tournament strategy. I threw out mine ten years ago.
    Back to your question.
    If you deal with the reality you would assume that the particular opponents are not skillful and that will influence your decision.
    E.g. why BR2 bet only 170 and not 175? Why BR3 didn’t bet 150? Obvious big mistakes, so they will not modify their plays. BR3 needs to play “push as bad as lose” if BR2 has a good hand, BR2 needs to play “push as good as win” if BR3 is weak, and so on. Cards dealt face-up help you against inexperienced players.
    This means that they would not play optimally if you bet big and your chances get even greater for betting 185 – which is a better play even against good opponents.

    S. Yama
     
    S. Yama, Mar 15, 2006
    #3

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