What is the probability of a good BJT player makes it to the final table in a mini tournament? I've been playing BJ Tournament for 5 months and within this time frame, I make it to the final numerous of times with 7 first places and not counting other places. Since I am a full time college student, it's hard for me to work part time and study at the same time. I figure If I can win at this rate, then I definitely don't need a part time job and have more time to focus on my study. But I would like to know whether the rate that I made it to the final in the past is the expected rate for a good tournament players or is it just luck? Here are some paramenters for the "calculation" (if there is one): I play about 4 times a week (25 buyin and 25 rebuy). With first place averages to about 1100.00, 2nd 500, 3th 300, 4th 200, 5th 150, 6th 100. The players in my area (in my opinion) are mostly average players and the number of players, on average, are around 25. There are three rounds and each round, typically 3 out of 6 players advances to the next round. Final table is usually consisted of 6 players.
Keep detailed records of your tournaments As a minimum, for each table, record the following information: Casino Name, Location Date Number of players at each table Number of LOSERS (as opposed to winners) at each table Whether you won or lost the table What round it was i.e. qualifier, semifinal, etc. Whether it was a final table with a paydown Last hand button position at beginning and end of round Prize structure written as 1st/rest Calculate a rating for yourself with this formula. Do not use final tables with paydowns as part of this rating unless it is a winner take all table. Do not use accumulation rounds, only elimination type tables: Rating = (My # Losses/My # Tables)/(Total # Losers/Total # Players) Use your rating to calculate your probability of winning your next table as follows: Prob. of Winning = 1 - [Rating * (Total # Losers/Total # Players)] In a tournament with multiple rounds you just multiply the individual probabilities of winning together for all preliminary rounds you have to play to get to the final. That's your estimate of your probability of getting to the finals.
nice formula! Thanks. Using the formula you provided, my probability comes out to be around .3, which is 30%. So If I play 16 times a month, I should make it to the final table about 5 times. Not bad at all... But I think that 30% is kind of high, as a result, I guess I need to input a bigger data sample to the formulas to yield a more accurate percentage. If one can make it to the final table 30% of the time, then he/she does not need a job that pays under $15/hour. Perhaps I should quit my part time job With all the discussions revolving around strategies to advance to the final table, there are not much discussions regarding the strategy at the final table where the top two places pays out the most money. So my question is: for the final table, is it better to be one of the top two chip leaders going into the final hands or bust out trying OR try to stay alive until the last hand (alive with some reasonable chips to play with after catch up bets have failed). Of course, the right answer to this question would depends on many factors. But for the sake of brevity, let's assume it's a typical local mini tournament with most average players on the tables.
Which casino? darklord: I've been following your posts for the last couple of months and it seems like the casino you play at may be a decent place to play. Would you mind telling us where you play? I'm sure others on this site would also be interested. Thanks and good luck in your future play.
A less complicated approach Assuming two rounds with six players and three advancing, the average player will make the final table 1 in 4 times (.5x.5). Since there appears to be a nice overlay, even the average player should show a profit in this tournament.
Of course an average player can profit Walt, it's three rounds with 3 advancing. Sometimes there are 7 people, but 70% of the time, there are six. This is the usual format at Great American Casino in the NorthWest. The other two casinos that I play are way more crowded compared to Great American, they average to about 40 people each time, thus they usually pick 2 out of 7. But yes, even an average player, in a long run, can make profit, because after all the casinos put in the pot at least $1000.00 for each mini tournament. But If you are a skilled BJ tournament player, then your odd definitely increase at least 2 to 3 times folds compared to an average player, besides the chance of a skilled player getting first place is higher. But the casinos don't worry about it, because players lose more on a live table in a long run. I venture to say that even a skilled BJ tournament player can lose in the long run because he/she can't resist the temptation to gamble on a live table while waiting for the tournament. Anyone here who wins a lot at tournament but only to lose back more on live table games? Well, it happens to me. I think in the future, I will bring a book or an ipod to help me resist the urge to gamble. Any advices from anybody to resist the urge to play on live table game because I need it.
Live table action Dark Lord: A Half A****esed solution is to get into a small buy in holden tournament. You can play for hours, satisfy your "action" need and rat hole your BJ tourney winnings. And still feel like you acomplished something
