There is always a better bet....Your analysis Mr. Smith and/or others

Final hand of a semi final round. Two advance. Minimum bet is 100, maximum is 2500. Must bet in increments of 100. No surrender allowed.

BR 1 has 10,750 and has to act first. he makes a secret bet.
BR 2 (a man who has played no more than 5 tournaments in his life) has to act second and has 8,900. He also make a secret bet.
BR 4 has 4,900 and acts next. he bets 2,400
BR 3 (me) acts last, has 8,250, and bet 1,600

I thought that I made a good bet. I did so for the following 3 reasons.
1) Covers an All in by BR 4 by 50.
2) Covers a max bet win over BR 2 via my double down or a split by 50.
3) Covers a max bet loss by BR 2 by 250

Any suggestions as to a better bet here?

As it turned out. BR1 received a pat 20. BR 2 (hwo made a secret bet of 500, hit his 15 versus the dealer 8 up and busted. BR 4 doubled down on a hard 14 and got a 7 (the double down cards are dealt up in this tournament) and I hit ny 2 card 12 and, of course, drew a 10 and busted. The dealer had a 10 under the 8 up card for a pat 18.

 

Butting in here because I'm reading Ken Smith's tournament strategies and I'm interested...

You didn't say what the secret bets turned out to be. Who won this round? Inquiring mind(s) want to know!

 

Results

BR 1 bet 1700 BR 2 bet 500. The two hands that did not bust advanced. That would be, before the hand, BR 1 and BR 4

 

Good bet, just unlucky cards

I think you made a good bet, I am not sure there is room for improvement unless I am overlooking something. Your logic for sizing the bet seems sound, I am not sure there is any benefit to a higher or lower bet, but if there is I am sure someone will point it out.

Once the cards fall, I also think you played it exactly right. Once BR2 busted you have to figure you have him beat, it just requires you to win too since BR4 got really lucky with his hit. Unfortuanately your hit took you out of the game.

The only thing I am having a hard time figuring out is BR2's bet. I know you point out his lack of experience, but I find it hard to figure out why the bet of $500 makes any sense at all. Obviously everyone should know BR4 is dd on anything with an all in bet, so BR2 should have at least put enough in to cover that win, which $500 doesn't do.

But I know I have made my own share of stupid bets, so I am not one to talk.

 

I like your bet very much, Bradley. Anything between 1600 and 1800 would be my choice, although the 1800 adds the microscopic chance of your DD beating BR1's push. Sure is hard to consider all of those options when sitting at the table with the clock ticking.

And, yes, Ptaylor - I have more than my share of Bonehead Bets, too!!!!!

 

In search of a better bet

Great bet Bradley.

My first instinct was to bet 1700, seconds later I liked bet of 1,800 even more – benefits of that bet are that your blackjack beats BR1 winning a plausible minimum bet.
Then I took a minute and in my book Bradley’s bet of 1,600 is better than 1,700 or 1,800.

Let’s compare 1,600 and 1,700.

1,700 gets high over BR2’s (one exactly bet) 1,000, which our bet of 1,600 wouldn’t.
But this is about canceled out by losing a chance of low when BR2 bets (one exactly bet) 2,300, where our bet of 1,600 does the trick but 1,700 doesn’t.

The chance of receiving bj when BR1 pushes, and BR2 wins is less than one tenth of one percent. And BR2 bet has to be >= 1,900. Additionally, we can reduce this by doubling on bj when BR1 has 17, 18, 19, or 20, and BR2 has even better hand, and dealer shows respectively 7, 8, 9, or Ten.

The chance of us splitting (or fast double for full amount) with bet of 1,600 and losing it when BR2 loses double (bet size as in the previous case) and BR4 pushes may be close to benefits of the previous scenario. (BR2 losing 8% times, us losing ~ 7%, times BR4 pushing [he can now play to have at least 17 and one point better than both BR2 and us)
If we lose doubled 1,600 we stilll have 5,050, which is more than BR4's bankroll of 4,900. Losing doubled 1,700brings us down to 4,850.
I would guess it would be one hundred of one percent better play – lol.

S. Yama

PS
But I would not bet any money on it, lol.

 

How does Homer Simpson say it? DOH!!!!!!! I always give myself a tight time limit when figuring these things out here and somehow I "lost" $1K when adding the DD to the current chip stack.

Agreed, that $1,600 was a simply outstanding conclusion when under the gun like Bradley was at the time.
Kudos to you, sir!

P.S. Yet again, SYama provides us with an excellent mathematical analysis of a situation which, as usual, leaves me sitting here scratching my head and thinking "WTF???" :laugh:

 

Firstly all, thanks for all of the input, work, analysis and also the kind words.

My fault for not being through in detailing all of the rules. At this particular event, a player is not allowed to double down on a blackjack.