This is so though

Meant so tough (sic)

Just eliminated from the Palms Event in the fifth round (25th hand) after 3 1/2 hours of grueling play (strange everybody was playing tight, starting on the first round).

Question : Two hands from the 25th hand, 4 players remaining , 3 advancing to the final table, I'm low BR (32500), but I will be last to bet at the coming elimination hand and the only one with a secret bet. Numbers are approximate, but here is the situation on the 23rd hand :

BR1 : 54000 (betting first, bets 500)

BR2 : 42000 (betting second, bets 3000)

BRL : 32500 (me, betting third, bets 8500)

BR 3 : 39000 (bets 3000)

Lost the bet, dropped to 24000, went all in on the 24th hand (hard 14 against dealer 4) was eliminated when dealer made 19.

Would it have been better to sit at the 23rd hand and take my shot with the secret bet, betting last, on the 25th hand?:rolleyes:

Coming so close is so frustrating. I had just qualified for this event last Monday (816 players, 2 1/2 hours) after numerous failures in the preceding month and a half.

Well, let's not get down an let's instead dream about Paris!

 

Archie

How many players adanced from this table - if single advance - I would have gone for it - if multiple advance - would have waited for the elimination hand and tried to get position -

 

3 were advancing to the final table. I remember founding myself in a similar situations in money games and moving instead of waiting at the end to take advantage of my position and secret bet. Actually, I don't think I ever did wait in this situation? Why, do you think, it would be a superior play?

 

Don't feel bad...

I was eliminated in round 1!!! Yea I waited all month for that. Started betting low and getting blackjacks and such. When I had to push the bets to keep up with everyone else I got nothin but garbage. As far as your delima, I'm just a newbie so don't take what I'm saying as advice. but I would have been betting even higher when you know the leaders are betting low even if its early. Youre going to have to take your risk sooner or later and you may as well do it when you know theyre betting low, that way You get the most return since results are similar.

Dont kick yourself.
My 2 cents,
Rounder21

 

Just a point of clarification. If you are betting 3rd on hand 23, wouldn't you be betting 1st on hand 25? If so, that changes your strategy.

Also, you did not mention how BR2 or BR3 did on the 23rd hand. That could have an effect on how to play the 24th hand.

Then since BR2 bets 1st on the 24th hand, what did he bet?

 

prog

You were using a 2 step progression in effect and as such you had a 68.6% chance of success. If you waited till hand 25 and assuming you were still BRL your chances of success would probably have been somewhere between 44-50%. Just some thoughts...

Cheers

Reachy

 

Clarification

When I lost hand 23 (8500), BR2 and BR3 pushed. The all-in, I think, was mandatory on hand 24 (almost a max bet back of BR2 and BR3). I might have inverted the betting order, but the main facts remain these: BRL, in possession of the only secret bet left and last position on hand 25.

The point of my question, actually, is broader. With last position and secret bet advantage on everybody else, but BR low, would it have been better (considering nobody else was moving) to wait hand 25 to make my one and only move after seeing everybody else bet.

Actually, my quandary with this goes further back to the 16th hand. Four players came out of it, 3 advancing to the finals, but I was BR low (around 39000) and the others (numbers approximate) were : BR1 (51000), BR2 (46000) and BR3 (45000). I made small moves to catch up until the 23rd hand, but saw my stack drop to 32500, the others maintaining their position while increasing the spread over me. Naturally, they were all basing their betting on mine.

How much of an advantage would have been that secret bet and last position considering the other player's behavior and the spread to cover after hand 16. Would intentionnally sitting on my 39000 (after hand 16) and patiently wait for hand 25, the best strategy? Were the small moves before hand 23 called for considering that I had the only secret bet and last position on hand 25th?

 

What about this then?

Firstly, as toolman said, are you sure you'd be last to act on hand 25? If you are 3rd on 23, then you'll be 2nd on 24 and 1st on 25 and as you know it would be very bad to be BRL and 1st to act.

Regardless of that imagine the same scenario that you first posted but instead you are last to act and it's EH 25. I've made up bets that your opponents may make and I'm not saying that they are ideal but this is after all a hypothetical situation

BR1 : 54000 (betting 2nd, bets 16500)

BR2 : 42000 (betting 3rd, bets 18000)

BRL : 32500 (me, betting last, bet ?)

BR 3 : 39000 (betting 1st, 19500)

So what would you bet?

Cheers

Reachy

 

Great effort anyway, Archie

Good job even though you didn't get to the finish line, Archie. Like Rounder, I got popped in the first round - again! - won exactly 2 out of the first 15 hands. I've played against the guy who won in qualifiers before, he's pretty good, not just some chump who got lucky.

Reachy, as to your hypothetical situation, all 3 players have bet enough to take the high away from your 25K max bet, barring you successfully doubling the 7500 you would have remaining. So I'd probably get a bit more creative, and push 5K out because:

If you BJ and BR3 pushes or loses, you pass him.

You can DD and pass BR2's push/loss.

If BR3 surrenders, you can as well and squeak it out with the trap.

And, obviously, if the dealer pounds everybody, both BR2 and BR3 are going to pass you on the way down.

 

I too was gone in Round 1 - bizarre play in which two players did something STUPID on hand 15 to go to zero BR. Then hand 16 became a final elimination hand and I was NOT prepared for it :flame:

What I find interesting is the statment: "everybody was playing tight, starting on the first round"

I notice this also - the "ploppy" play - so common on the playubt.com SNG and freeroll qualifiers was not as prevelant. Are these people reading our posts

 

The wildcatter play virtually vanishes in the online Main Events. People know that they only get one shot at it, where the SNG's and qualifiers are easily re-entered. The fun part for us BJT-ers is that many of them have no clue how to play the game right, all they've ever previously done is pound the Max Bet button relentlessly. :laugh:

 

Rephrasing the question

Let's forget the numbers for a moment to reflect about a strategic long term decision you have to take : Here are the facts you have to deal with.
17th hand : 4 players left, 3 advance to final table

One negative : You are BR low (39000) agains BR1 (51000), BR2 (46000) and BR3 (45000)

Two positives : you have the only secret bet left and you will be betting last on the 25th hand.

Tight game, good players

Are you ready to sit, leave them the lead and face them on the 25th hand with presumably a similar spread (you know they are all playing conservative and that they'll match your bets), or do you risk to increase the spread trying to catch up with small moves (like I did) or by making your big move close to the elimination hand like I usually do in this situation (I'm starting to think it's a panic move), completely disregarding your two big positives

I did everything right to keep my secret bet and I threw this big edge away + last position because I wanted desperately to catch up?

In that situation, is regaining the lead that important?

 

Getting out of last place is not only important but is almost critical. With 3 advancing, the 25th hand is the end of the game (unless someone busts out earlier). Given the "new" scenario you have detailed, you say the players are all betting tight or matching bets. Then you bet tight also until you have the last opportunity to bet last before the 25th hand (I believe that would be hand 22 in your example). Then either bet the max or 1/2 your bankroll. You have now caught them by surprise and they can't come back and match your bet so this gives you the best chance to get back in the game.

Also, you seem to be too eager to use your secret bet. Save it until it can make a difference. Sometime this means not using it at all.

You keep insisting that you bet last on the 25th hand but the data you supplied shows otherwise. You will actually be betting first on the last hand. All the more reason to get back in the game before the last hand. Also, betting first on the 25th hand is the ideal time to use your secret bet to create some confusion.

 

goalposts

Archie

I'm getting more confused about what your actual situation was. In your first post you said it was hand 23 and your were acting 3rd so would be acting 1st on EH 25 now you are saying it's hand 17, which puts a whole new perspective on the situation.

Here are some of my thoughts:

If it was hand 17 I would not make a move. I would wait and see what happens. If the others start slugging it out who knows what may happen.

If it were hand 23 I would probably make a move. Don't overvalue the secret bet. I would much rather not be BRL than BRL with the "power" of the secret bet! You're probably not going to improve you odds much beyond a coin toss as BRL with a SB whereas as BRN you should be able to get 80% or thereabouts.

Your question is really a fundamental one about strategy and as such there will be a variety of views. Sometimes the 2 step approach works, sometimes it doesn't. What is a truism though is that your chances of winning any 1 out of 2 bets is 50% greater than winning just 1 out of 1 (44% vs 69%).

I personally would not rely on a small overbet incremental approach to get in touch with the leaders but someone like Hollywood may use a series of small progressions to decrease the gap.

I'm not sure I've answered your question.

Cheers

Reachy

 

Sorry for the confusion

Thank your for answering Toolman and Reachy. Post #12 presents the basic situation that I was faced with between hand 17 and the next elimination hand (hand 25). What you suggest, Reachy, is what I did and, as I did not get the cards, it failed.

But immaterial of the cards, the question remains. Is the double value of last position and secret bet was worth waiting hand 25 to make my main move. You both answered in the negative, confirming that my play was probably right even if the results were not.

Toolman, I presented the betting order erroneously in Post #1, The data in Post #1 should have shown that I had last position and the secret bet at hand 25th (which was the reality of my situation). Sorry for the confusion.

Thank you guys.

 

Archie,

The vast majority of plays in a BJ tournament are simply based on probabilities. Same as when you play live BJ. Sometimes the short end of a probability rears it's ugly head. This is the norm. So we take our best shot and keep our fingers crossed. That's how the game is played.

 

I'm clear now

Your fundamental question:

Is being BRL + betting last + secret bet > being BRN + betting last + secret bet - risk of busting attempting to be BRN? ​

If we estimate that the 1st side of the "equation" is about 50% and "being BRN + betting last + secret bet" from the 2nd side of the equation is worth 80% then only if the "risk of busting out attempting to BRN" is greater than 30% should we not attempt to go for BRN. If you adopt a 2 step all-in progression then the chances of success are about 69%. More importantly the chances of failure are about 31%!!!! It's closer than I thought....

Any comments?

Cheers

Reachy

 

That's about it!

Maths are not my forte, but I have to admit this equation clearly illustrate my quandary. You amaze me sometimes Reach!!!

Now, as I always act like I did yesterday and you suggest in the situation described in the equation , the only question remaining is this : Would the option of going all the way be more successful? For that I would have to put it to the test (it's a perfect situation to use Curt's revenge, isn't it?).

 

quandry

I think there are other factors to consider not least what your current BR is and what the gap is between you and the leaders. Sometimes, to make the gap you have to commit a considerable amount of your chips. As soon as you are in a postion where the difference is about 1/3 of your stack you have a decision to make, "if I lose do I go all-in next time?"

Of course a 3 step progression may be a better way to get to the top since the chance of success is about 82% (therefore 18% chance of losing). In that case, according to my "equation" it's 50% vs 63% (=81%-18%) and a no-brainer surely. Or is it? If your BR is less then 44.5K then you limit the max size of the progression. With 45K+ you can bet 7K - 12.5K - 25K so you are looking at a 81% chance of getting your BR to 50-52K or 5K-7K greater than your current position. But of course by the time you get to the 3rd step the goal posts may have moved. If we take the scenario as you originally laid it out the maximum you can hope to gain by a 3 step is about 3.5-5K (5+9.5+18=32.5) which doesn't seem like a lot does it? When you enter into this progression you are essentially saying "I am willing to commit my whole stack to make 4K!" Scary.

What about a series of 3 step progressions? What's the chance of success then? Your chance of success is obviously less then 81%, in fact it is 68% for 2 lots of 3 step progressions and 56% for 3. So 2 x 3 step progs is slightly less likely to be successful than a single 2 step progression. In your situation, depending on which way you go you could have a 69% chance of adding 10-11K or a 68% chance of adding 7.5-11K. Interesting.

Well this post has turned into a sort of steam of consciousness (as they often do for me) so it's not terribly well thought out, but it has given me food for thought, and maybe you to.

Cheers

Reachy

 

Just wondering ....

Question. I understand this statement. I believe it is taken from Wong's tournament book and assumes dealing from a shoe.

However, if there is a "shuffle" after every hand, like the online sites do, is this still a valid assumption?

I mean the adage about winning 44% is a long-term view based on infinite decks. What happens when a RNG is used? Or am I just eating too many funny mushrooms again?