One player advances. Button moves after each hand. 1D, H17, DOA, DAS. Player 1 has about $100 Player 2 has about $100 Player 3 has about $210 (button) Player 4 (me) has about $475 Players 1, 2 and 3 bet all. What is my best bet? I have always bet something like $5-$50 at this point. But, I am thinking that there might be a better bet.
$45 or $50 $45 or $50 covers his win even if you lose. You'll have to win your bet to cover his natural. I'd like to be in your seat!
I would bet Hello Prospect, Your sitting pretty with only one player to worry about and the only way they can beat you is by hitting a BJ and you losing your final hand. Assuming that a BJ pays 3-2 the most player 3 could win from their remaining $210 is $315 giving them $525. So your bet should be $55 giving you $530 with a win giving you a $5 win even if they hit a BJ and you win as well. If you both lose you still win.
TXtourplayer, it sounded like you thought that this was the last hand. Well, if it was the last hand, it would have been a no-brainer. Why would a small bet be better? Assume that only player 3 and I win, it is now... Player 3 - $420 Player 4 (me) - $480 (button) I would now bet $50. Player 3 would be able to take the high with a big bet. Now, if I matched Player 3's bet and assumed that only player 3 and I win, it would now be... Player 3 - $420 Player 4 (me) - $685 (button) Now, I would now bet $160 - $260 to have high and low.
I understand your thinking Prospect, but I still like a bet of less than $55 here. (Why not $55 to cover a natural? It opens you up to being in a tie if he wins all-in while you lose $55. I'll take my chances on his blackjack instead of opening that door. Better yet, bet $52.50 or $51 if the rules allow it.) As others have noted, you're in a great spot. You'll get last bet on the final hand, and it is quite likely that the game may not last that long. When in this position, I think it's pointless to risk a swing on this hand trying to create an even stronger situation. Wait until the players prove they are a threat by winning this hand. It's worth noting that players 1 and 2 still have less than half your bank even if they win this hand. The decision would be slightly more difficult if there were only two hands left. Then the ability of player 3 to take the high on the final hand is more dangerous. But here, with an extra hand to go, you'll be able to bet behind player 3 on the last hand, and even if he has the lead you're not in bad shape, because you're guaranteed either high or low behind him. Ideally, you'll get low and double-down high with Curt's revenge. I'd like to compare the numbers here on a large vs small bet on H-3, but I'm out of time today. Basically, you're weighing the risk of a swing against the reward of having more than a half-bet lead if you both win the hand. Intuitively, I favor the small bet. I hope my intuition is backed up by the numbers. I'll try to revisit this over the next day or two, and post some numbers. However, I'm departing for a vacation in the morning.
I'm awake now Sorry prospect, I was thinking it was the last hand and that those were the bets for BR3 at a tie with $100 bet each, BR2 at $210, and your play. With three hands to go I would have just bet the minimum and made BR2 and the others chase me for the last three hands. My thought is why risk more then minimum and take the chance of giving the others a chance to win while I am losing and coming back to them. The dealers always have the advantage so why not play it as your advantage as well. Bet small and make the others have to beat the dealer to beat you.
