Tinker's unsolved teaser

From 1995-2002 Blackjack Forum included "Tinker's Tournament Teaser", which challenged readers to answer stimulating questions on betting, insurance and the play of certain hands.

A solution to the last teaser was never printed, so let's give the BJT readership a crack at solving the mystery (perhaps the real Tinker will post the solution after some answers). Here it is:

The last hand of the New Frontier tournament gave several players
difficult choices in betting and playing. Rules: 6dk shoe, just shuffled;
Min bet = $5; Max bet = $100; Bets in increments of $1; DOA, DAS,
and Surrender. Prize structure: 1st = $27,000; 2nd = $14,000; 3rd =
$8,000; 4th = $4,000; 5th = $2,000; 6th = $1500.

At the start of the last hand, the standings are:

Seat 1: $488; must bet first on this last hand
Seat 2: $275
Seat 3: $275
Seat 4: $5
Seat 5: $319
Seat 6: $165

Query: What are the four (4) possible best bets for Seat 1 and the
rationale for each bet? And rank Seat 1"s four best bets from in order
from best to worse.

Posted with the permission of Blackjack Forum.

 

Tinker

There is no way to assure yourself of being BR1 under those circumstances after the final hand with any bet, I would bet $1 to cover a BJ by seat 5 and would also win if seat 2 or 3 doubled and won their hands. i would save the rest of my money to call the escourt service and say send her over. If seat 5 doubled and won I'd still have a great evening with the $487 remaining.

 

$5 minimum bet

Rookie remember they have a $5 minimum net so $1 wouldn't work.

 

Tinker

TX thanks for ruining my evening I now have only $483 for the blond escourt after making the $5 bet, but my minimum bet in the final hand remains the same

 

Isn't there only one mathematical solution?

An interesting problem, especially considering one should just pick the single BEST bet -- rather than trying to guess exactly which FOUR the original poster is looking for. So we're supposed to pick the best bet & 3 other inferior ones? Strange...

-holly d.

 

process

Quite likely you can find a better play but here I will try to recreate train of thought I could build within two minutes allowed in NF.

1. Notice most dangerous opponents and differences in the bankrolls: P2 and P3 by +$213 and P5 by +$129

2. Along the lines that P2 and P3 may cater their bets based on their opposition, I go down to P5.
She could bet 85 to have most of the benefits but it is equally likely she (as well as P2 and P3) bets max $100.

3 Build the ranges of possible end bankrolls. They may be achieved by doubling, winning single bet, surrendering, losing single bet, pushing and getting bj – in that order of importance. Ranges are: 519, 475, 469, 425, 419, 375, 319. But after seeing the ranges I noticed that because of my big lead options for other players are limited, so I need to check just this:

4. To cover doubled win by the most money (P5) that would get her to $519 I need to win at least $32. Losing it makes my brl $456 (my surrender is worth considering only if P5 gets a blackjack and my chances of winning are worse than about 40%). I make a notice that this bet carries the danger of me losing and P1 or P2 winning a doubled bet. Small chance, I can live with it. My opponents winning tripled bet is so small that I am okay with it, too. If the time is up I bet $32. If I have more time to think abut it then:

5. I still retain all the benefits of surrendering (when my hand has bad prognosis for winning) when P5 gets bj if I bet a cent more than $488 minus $469 (P5 bj) = $19 I know that I can bet $37 instead of $32 and surrender if needed - but maybe there will be an extra benefit by splitting/doubling if I need to -- I will check this after seeing cards.

6. I refine my bet by checking my ranges to see if I can “afford” to cover other rare(er) situations. The only thing I am concerned is my opponent winning a tripled bet. Trying to cover bankrolls of $619 or $550 if they win three-bet my bets must be of at least $63 (half of it if I double) or $66 and double it -these bets may bring less benefits and cause more harm. I stick with the range of $32 to $37.

7. My final bet is either max of my range $37 or most rounded number from the range – to conceal mechanics behind it- $35.

This is a method of narrowing down choices, which works well in complicated situations and with limited time to make a decision. With unlimited time or in simpler/familiar cases the approach is different. You try to map all possibilities and pick the best.

P.S.
When bankrolls are bigger than twice the maximum bet I usually use differences between the bankrolls and not the banrolls. But I thought that it would be clearar for most readers if in this example I used bankrolls numbers.


S. Yama.

 

also consider...

24 dollars. 32 is my first choice as well, but 24 gives you the option of surrendering and still staying ahead of a double by seat 2 or 3, once you know they can't win 3 max bets(if they don't have a possible split). 24 also gives you the option of doubling for less, maybe for 12 dollars more and still beating a max bet double by seat 5. I like 32 best and the question was the 4 best bets, so this is my order:
1-32
2-24
3-12
4-88(covers a 3 max bet by seats 2 or 3, as long as you win a single bet.

 

Tinkering with your mind!

I would bet $5 to cover every players possile DD except player 5's.

The $32 bet will cover player 5's DD. By betting $32 and winning you cover him by $1 ($520 to $519). But you open yourself up to other players hitting DD's and passing you then.

I would rather sit back in 1st with only one player having a realistic shot at catching me, instead of trying to cover that one and allowing several to catch or worst pass me.

The $32 bet could drop me to 4th place if players 2, 3, & 5 all hit DD's and swing player 1.

By only betting the $5 only player 5 can catch you with a DD. Players 2 & 3 have to catch a split hand and still DD to catch you.

It will take incredible bad luck for player 1 finish any worst then 2nd place by making a $5 bet and once again unless player 5 catches a DD player 1 will come in first.

As far as the other bet's "WHY"?

I'm not saying this is the highest percintage play, but it is the play I would make, "RIGHT or WRONG"!

 

Bottom Line!

I was called up a while ago and asked why I wouldn't make the $32 bet if I was player # 1.

Because of the bottom line! What would I walk away with from the table if this or if that happens and I felt like a $5 bet would give me the best chance to make 1st ($27,000) or 2nd ($14,000).

 

Attn: best bet

1st $488
2nd $275
3rd $275
4th $5
5th $319
6th $165

If we're 1st to protect ourselves from 5th double we need min $32.
Let's consider that eather 2rd or 3rd (or both) win $275 (split and double) - max possible outcome. We need to cover now $550 which is $62.50 (in Frontier it is acceptable $60 + $2.50 chip).
This bet is definetely the best because if 2nd or 3rd (or both of 'em) get BJ on $100 bet, they'll become $425, so with our $62.50 loss, we'll end up $425.50, what an art...

 

Bottom Line

TXTourPlayer,
I agree with you on the minimum $5.00 bet as I stated in my earlier post on this thread. The question was "what is the best bet" not what bet would you make if you wanted to risk finishing 1st or 5th vs. 1st or 2nd. With the $32 bet you expose yourself to the possibility of finishing 5th after the final hand and as I stated in an earlier post "2nd ain't bad less you're in a fist fight".
I haven't been on GSN but my philosophy on life not just BJ is if you're in 1st place by more than a max bet make them beat you, don't open the window of opportunity, before the cards are dealt it's 50/50. It seems like more football games have been lost than won when the team in the lead goes to a prevent defense on the final drive.

 

teaser

I like the bet of $32 best: $488+32=$520; $519 is the highest DD possible.
It beats all DD's with a single win. It also wins if all lose. "If you can only be beat by a BJ or a split DD combo consider that you have a lock"

Next I like a bet of $12: $488+12=$500 & $488-12=476; highest BJ = $469.
It beats all BJ's & 2 of 3 DD's. Creating a 2 player match where I like #5 having to win a dd to beat me. It also wins if all lose.

Next maybe a bet of $18: $488+18=$506 & $488-18=$470;
It beats all BJ's & beats 2 of 3 DD's. Can also beat #5 DD by also winning a DD.

Next a bet of $5 : This bet makes it a 2 player game and the 2 player exception says to take the low.

Ok, now what's the right answer? I'm just guessing!

 

6 one way, half a dozen then the other!

Why do we love blackjack tournaments so much? We second guess ourselves, relive bad beats over and over again, and believe it or not sometime players even bitch and whine to other players about how bad their table was...LOL.

Each person is different and you see several different styles of play the more tournaments you play in. Going back to the tinker question the best play would be the one that allows you to win the tournament, but since we don't know how it is going to to end up we just have to play it out the way we see best and hope for the best.

There are four players that all have a chance at winning the table, as player 1, I would rather only give one person a shot at over taken me on the last hand, but reguardless which way you play it unless you win you have to live if the, WOULDA, COULDA, SHOULDA's.

 

Win by .50 Cents

I believe that a $ 25 bet would be the best bet here.That bet would still allow you to DD to catch BR2 .Plus the 25 bet allows you to surrender your hand to lock out Br 3 & 4 from a DD max bet win .They would wind up with 475 and you as Br 1 would wind up with 475.50 beating them by a mere .50 cents .Locking up 2nd for sure and still forcing Br 2 to win a max bet DD

 

Sorry timed out...LOL

Joep, I know we want longer then 30 seconds and would like 60 seconds, but it's April now, almost 60 DAYS after the question was asked...LOL.

Good thing you're going to work at the Stardust...LOL!

 

New Rules at the Stardust

Hey what could I say this was the first time I had seen this post.Better late than never ,And a hell of a lot better than you 5 bet.Which you had before the clock started on you.

One of the new things that I will change as the new tournament director at the Stardust will be ample time for every player to make their bets and I will do away with string bets.If the player after you has not made their bet yet then there is no string bet .Case closed

 

Dusty-bust-busty rules from Norm:

Applause to the string bet.

But ample time is what? an hour?

 

Job Opening

Within reason is ample time.Players who push the envelope on this rule will be issued a warning .If no bet is placed in circle we may call on you Noman to be the offical bet maker for slow players.Are you up to the task ?

 

Don't worry about Joep's bet...

He was barred from this this tournament long ago...LOL.
I just found out his uncle Matt is the tournament director at this made up casino.

Damn Joep, you even get kicked out of the make believe casinos...LOL.