Sorry for the rather poor Shakespearian rip-off in the title but I couldn't think of anything else. Also I hope Joep doesn't mind me posting this teaser as it's a result of a discussion with him on Global last night and I was just curious what others thought. I did think about figuring probabilities out for the various outcomes but it would be a very long and involved process and even I don't have the time to do that yet. The numbers are approximations as I can't remember them exactly but I don't think it affects the result. Final hand, usual Global rules ($500 max bet, surrender available, etc), 2 advance. BR3; 1300, bets 500, Hard 14 BR2; 1400, Bets 500, Soft 15 BR1; 1500, bets 500, BJ Dealer upcard; 9 What does BR3 do? Cheers Reachy
My memory Hi Joep I couldn't exactly remember the cards but I thought they were BR3 with a lowish stiff, BR2 with a soft hand, and BR1 with a natural (I'm sure about that one!), acting in that order, with the dealer with a high card but not a 10. What were the cards? The reason I posted this thread was because I didn't feel we could discuss it enough in the chat a Global and I wanted to expand it out and have a more in-depth discussion. No criticism is implied. Cheers Reachy
Reachy here were the hands Br3 had hard 14 Br2 had A-5 Br1 had 6-5 If you remember in the Global chat I mentioned that both players had DD hands behind him which is dangerous if you DD and remain stiff they both can lock you out by DD behind you. Joep
I was sure you had a BJ! I was convinced you had a BJ because I was sure that you would have lost to a winning DD from BR3 even with your BJ if you didn't also win a DD. What did the dealer have? Here are my thoughts on the matter and I welcome any critique of them. With BR3 having neither the high or the low he can only win if he takes either the high or the low and/or swings at least one of the other players. He's acting first so at a massive dissadvantage as well as being BR3! Whatever he does the others can cover. He's not going to stand so whether he hits or doubles he's got about the same chance of busting - about 46% (probably slightly more for the "hit a hand or bust" strategy). If he busts he's gone regardless! If he doubles and gets a stiff (15%) he's lost as well. So just over 60% of the time he's guaranteed locked out when he DD. The other 40ish% of the time he has a chance. If he hits to a hand or busts trying, using an infinte deck I think the chances of hitting to a hand are about 45%, more than DD of course, but DD limits the options of BR2 and BR1; they have to DD as well (don't they?) therefore they only have one bite of the cherry which will shift the chances back in BR3s direction. If BR3 hits and makes a hand BR2 and BR1 also have more of a chance of getting a better hand by hitting. The way I see it doubling puts more pressure on BR2 and BR1 (if you're successful of course). You can win by swinging them, they have to double so they can't improve their hand if it's not as good as yours, and they can make a betting/play mistake. Also with 2 of them to play there is a better chance that at least one will not beat you. Let's not forget BR3 is odds on favourite to get beaten whatever he does. I don't know though, I'm probably talking out of my rear so please pick apart my rationale! Cheers reachy
Now if this is the scenario, assuming all bet 500 and the bankrolls are: BR3 1300 BR2 1400 BR1 1500 and the dealer has a 9 showing - just so we're all on the same page here. What is BR3's "best" play? My 0.02 on this is that BR3 can't surrender - well he shouldn't because that really wouldn't do much good. BR3 - hitting to 19 or better. What good does that do against BR1 who is likely to DD with the 11? Since BR3 is 200 behind all BR1 has to do is hit without DD and BR3 is in a bad place. BR3 - Doubling. This would be my choice. If BR3 breaks - most likely scenario he loses game over and go home. Suppose BR3's DD results in an 18-21? Now BOTH BR2 & BR1 HAVE to dd just to stay ahead. Of course BR2 & BR1 WANT BR3 to dd and bust! Lucky for them BR3 goes 1st! Now lets assume the DD card is dealt down so no one can see. Changes the psychology doesn't it? That's my thoughts - tell me where I went wrong.
fgk, little OT Think back to our semi final last night, last hand Perg br1 slew br2 you br3 me br4 slightly behind Perg bet first went near 500 a good bet with his lead. You and I went 1000 and slew 500 I think. All correct bets. Perg pulled junk 14 I think and stood, everyone would have to win to drop him. I pulled a 13 and doubled to 17. You had 7 and slew 17. Dealer up 8. Sure I was happy to not bust my hand but I ended up with 17. This gave you and slew an open door, post betting off my play, to surrender. Right away I knew, before the dealer turned her A up for 19, I should have hit my 13 and hit my 17. The next card dealt was a 3. If I had pulled a 20 you and slew would have acted. Sure its arm chair QBing and I did set myself up for an advance with the double, but it goes to show hitting a high hard hand can change the dynamics of the table. It takes guts and lots of experience for sure. B
Apples & Oranges buddy Lets take another look at that last hand. You remember it all correctly but in hindsight I didn't play it the way the "book" said to play it. Pergo is BR1 with 500 bet. hard 14 vs. dealer 8 you have 2000 bet with 17 I have 1000 up with a 7 - If I don't surrender and hit I have 10. At this point due to your DD I can't win with a draw to a hand unless the dealer beats you. I wasn't going to DD on a 7 with the dealer showing an 8. By all rights I should have hit. For me it was a "gut check". In this case the difference between BR1 and BR3 is only 200. Plus in this case BR2 & BR1 have soft hands. So Barney, what would you have done in this case?
Fgk Using your scenario. If I were br3 I would double for less, under 300. That would take my potential to 2099 and leave me with money on the table to take advantage of any mismanagement of doubles by other two players. still in bad shape but a DD would scare br1 and br2 at make them work. Even more so if card were face down.
Dang Barney good idea - I didn't think about that one! The double for less scenario is one that not many people use often enough and here would be a great use for it. As far as cards down vs. up. My preference is DOWN as it takes away a lot of the advantage of betting last and even's the playing field a lot more at least in my opinion. Lets face it who bets last is determined by the roll of a dice (or high card) how "fair" is that? Eliminate the advantage and level the playing field
Hindsight is a wonderful thing! Barney I don't know how many times I've done one thing which seemed "right" or was even "by the book" but turned out to be "wrong" and if I'd have done it the "wrong" way I would have won. You can review the hands played as much as you like, replay them until you get the outcome you need, but it doesn't alter whether the action that you took, whether it won or lost for you, was the "right" thing to do at the time. I'm not saying what you did was right or wrong (I'll look into it ) but I don't think it is the best way of analysing whether a play was correct or not. Question: If your double had taken you to 20 would you feel the same way? I'm going to do some maths later to figure the odds on my original example. My gut feeling is that it very close, a matter of a %age or two. Cheers Reachy
Reach The interesting thing about all these scenarios is there is a negligible difference between the choices. Even more so if you consider the chain of events is dependent upon each players choice. For example, FGK probably should have hit his 7 but didnt. Pergo should have hit his 14 but didnt. This is why it is so important to be in the game with chips to risk at the end, you never know what is going to happen during the chain of events! B
Should Pergo have hit? Are you saying Pergo should have hit because he would have got the 4 that you got for an 18? Or are you saying that he should always hit 14 in that situation? Just curious? Cheers Reachy
Im saying the chain of events is dependent on each players decision. In this case Perg stood on a 14 vs dealer up 8 against basic start. He had the luxury because he had a good enough lead to advance. If perg had took my 4 he would have had 18 and I would have had 16 on my double. Matters?!? Anyway on to the next game, Ill see you in the Finals at Global tomorrow Sir Reach! And I expect you to set your alarm and play at blackjack21.com VP game as well! If need be contact the boys in Costa Rica and tell them to loan you some of my VPs. Tell them Barney sent you, they will get a hell of a laugh! B
