Tournament Question for newbies - something to think about

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by TXtourplayer, Jul 21, 2005.

  1. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Ken, Yama, and Joep can give you correct percintages on all the questions below.

    1)
    General rule of thumb on the last hand is don't hit a bust hand when you have to win.

    The question is if you have a bust hand that is it low vs high card is it better to hit then stand on the final hand? Example: 12 vs 10, or 13 vs 10?

    I know based on the cards played will make a difference, but in general is it better to stand everytime?

    2)
    It is always better to take the low on the final hand.

    If two advance and I have 1st high and first low and betting first, what is my best bet? Minimum? Maximum? Note all five players can pass me on the final hand for high.

    A) What about when only 4 can pass you?

    B) only 3

    C) only 2

    D) only 1

    E) What if only 1 player advances?

    3)
    When behind on the final hand over a max. bet is it better to make a max. bet even if it is more then half of your bankroll or should you split your bankroll?

    4)
    I have seen players standing on cards that can't bust them and hitting bust hands when the dealer has 2-6 up. It there ever a poper time to do either of these?

    5)
    The betting limits are $10 to $500, your down by $300 with three hands to go two advance. You make a $500 bet the leader only $10. You get a DD hand, vs a 5. What is your best play if your first bet on the last hand, DD or just hit?

    A) What if you have last bet?

    B) What if only one advances?

    6)
    Same betting limits as #5, your $250 behind BR1 and $200 behind BR2 with three hands left (counting this one). You are BR3. and two players advance. You bet $200, BR1 $60, and BR2 $60. You get two pictures, BR1 catches a 19, BR2 gets a 18 vs dealers 5. Question should you split your 20 or not?

    A) What if only 1 players advances?

    Hopefully these questions may help you decide the correct play in a future tournament.
     
    TXtourplayer, Jul 21, 2005
    #1
  2. noman

    noman Top Member

    Tourney ?

    By the way where is Yama.

    go to another site.

    Always looked forward to Yama's insights.
     
    noman, Jul 22, 2005
    #2
  3. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Busy

    Yama is a busy man, hopefully we will hear from him soon. It is always a pleasure reading his posts.
     
    TXtourplayer, Jul 22, 2005
    #3
  4. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    I'll take a stab at these.

    You guys are welcome to make mincemeat of my logic. That way I'll learn to be a better player... :)

    1) With 12 or 13 against a 10 if you hit your chances of busting are 4/13 and 5/13 respectively. If you stand the dealer's chance of busting so you can win is only 23%. If you hit and don't bust you'll most likely push or lose anyway, but it looks like the better deal. I'd hit 12 or 13 against 10 in a must win situation.

    2) If two advance and I'm BR1 on the button, and two or more were in reach, I'd bet max to take first high. Either BR2 or BR3 is likely to bet max, giving me the high-low for second (the middle position with the bonus of being first high). Of course, it depends on my assessment of BR2's and BR3's playing styles too. If only one were in reach, bet high enough to cover a max bet dd by BR3.

    If one advances and I'm BR1 on the button, I'd bet a chip less than my lead over BR2, so the rest of my players can't take the low while retaining the ability to dd after me for high.

    3) If behind more than the max on the last hand, I'd split my chips even if a natural on my split bet isn't enough. In that case I'd dd the natural.

    Here's a question: Would your decision on this be different if the rules don't allow dd on a natural?

    4) If the betting situation has made your own hand irrelevant, your player has a stiff and needs to hit it, and the deck composition is rich in high cards, don't hit a basic strategy hit hand (unless you're worried about being profiled by the pit!) If your player needs a picture, and the deck composition is short of them, don't hit it. If your player has a stiff and needs to hit it, bust your hand if the deck compostion short of high cards. If your player needs a picture, bust your hand if the deck compostion is rich in high cards. Never do any of these things unless your own hand is irrelevant. Think twice about it if it could get you profiled by the casino employees.

    5) I'm assuming other players are also within range. With three hands to go, anything can still happen, but a loss of a max bet dd would put you out of business. I probably wouldn't do it in any of the conditions listed unless there were a lot of players still in contention. It would take less players still in contention if only once advances. I'd be much more likely to do it on the second last hand than on the third last, because of the likelihood of being BR1 on the last hand.

    6) I wouldn't split my 20 if two advance. I'll likely win, and either catch one or both players if the dealer draws out, or at least pull within half a max bet of both. I'd probably do it if one advances and I'll be on the button on the last hand, because I'm a dead monkey if I don't have the lead.

    Regarding questions 5 and 6, there are lots of variables that go into a decision of what to do, not the least of which is the type of players you're up against. Once you get to the second last and last hands the decision is more logical than in the several hands before that when the bigger money usually starts coming out.
     
    Monkeysystem, Jul 22, 2005
    #4
  5. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    Dog's days of bj

    It is summer okay. A hot summer. How many days over 100F in Vegas this July?

    Yep, I’ve been busy like a summer bee. Thanks for asking.

    I was fortunate to score some nice wins, just to give most of it back in some unlucky beats (a net loss of about $15K in WSOP was only a minor concern).

    In the original TXT’s post there are enough questions that answers could make a small book, but they all are good questions.

    Let me address just the first Q:
    1)General rule of thumb on the last hand is don't hit a bust hand when you have to win.
    The question is if you have a bust hand that is it low vs high card is it better to hit then stand on the final hand? Example: 12 vs 10, or 13 vs 10?

    The proper play is called “Must Win Strategy”. This’d been generated independently by a few tournament players.
    It is very similar to basic strategy and the differences are relatively small.
    The idea is that if push is no good for you, then you should stay on some stiff hands that are close decisions.
    You will win some hands that you otherwise lose by busting before dealer busts. Your total Expected Value can be better if you hit as you push some hands and also win some improved hands, but if you only care about maximizing number of hands won you are better off by standing.
    For example:
    If you hit sixteen vs. dealer’s ten you win in low twenties % (depending on particular cards) and push about 6% of the times. If you stand on sixteen vs. d’s ten you win 23% and never push.
    You may win couple percent more often but you give up about half percent (quarter to two-thirds depending on particular cards involved) in EV.

    If you must remember some deviations from basic strategy then stand on 12 vs. d’s 2 and 3, and stand on 16 vs. dealer’s 9, and 15 vs. dealer’s 10.

    Keep in mind that proper identification of situation is most important, and if there are other players who in addition to your winning can’t push or win, your strategy changes.

    I may repost some messages from recently defunct tournament page on Wong’s bj21. There was little traffic there and obviously tournaments are not Wong’s forte, or of much interest to him anymore.

    S. Yama
     
    S. Yama, Jul 25, 2005
    #5
  6. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Thanks as always Yama

    I know your a busy man, thanks for taking time out of your schedule. Hope to see you soon.
     
    TXtourplayer, Jul 25, 2005
    #6

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