I was wondering how tournament stragedy changes when their are a couple of rule changes first blackjack pay 2 to 1 instead of 3 to 2, second their is a 2 to 1 pay off for a 5 card charlie!
Some thoughts I've never played with those rules so I have no direct experience. However I would think that it would affect your betting strategy especially in the endgame. If a BJ pays 2:1 then you will have to bet bigger than you would with the usual rules to maintain/cover the high. For example, last hand, you are BR1 with 10K and BR2 has 5K. BR2 goes all-in so what do you do? If BJ plays 2:1 BR2 can get to 15K which you will have to cover either with a single bet (5.5K) or a doubled bet (3K). If BJ pays 3:2 then BR2 can only get to 12.5K which would be covered by a single bet of 3K or a doubled bet of 1500. With the 2:1 rule BR1 is more vulnerable since a BR2 push would beat a BR1 loss if they bet 5.5K. This is an oversimplified illustration and there are several other bets that BR1 may want to make but for the purposes of this question it'll do. You'd also have to figure the 5 card charlie into your betting strategy for the same reasons. It will also affect your playing strategy, more so with the 5CC rule than the BJ rule I'd guess. There will be situations where playing for the 5CC would be statistically the best thing to do (better than BS) and also in the endgame if you aren't in the money or facing elimination it maybe the only play to make, even hitting hard 20 when you have 4 cards already. In summary I'd say when betting one will have to take into account the greater possibility of a player catching up and overtaking you which in turn means it is much more important to build a healthy lead over an opponent (greater than a max bet). When playing it would be useful to know when going for the 5CC is the correct play and deviate from BS at that time. Like I said, I've no direct experience so I'm just speculating. Incidentally what are the odds of a 5 CC? Anybody know? Cheers Reachy
Actually when playing in a tournament where blackjack pays 2 to 1 you are playing with close to a 2% edge right off the top of the deck,so minimum bets lose their value in this format.Another adjustment that is needed is that your insurance bets in a particular situation take on a whole new avenue of optimum play. Joep
house edge Can you elucidate this point a little more for me? I can understand why a player would have the edge over the house in regular BJ with 2:1, but they don't actually win more hands vs the dealer. It may be argued that a minimum betting strategy is no longer an approach favoured by the "sophisticated" TBJ player but it is probably still good advice to a newbie, at least initially. What approach would you suggest when BJ pays out more than 3:2? I'm also interested in the probability of getting a 5 card charlie. Anybody know? What about BS/TSS when this rule is in place? Cheers Reachy
Probability Of Five Card Charlie Your basic strategy changes for a 5CC paying 2:1 wouldn't change until you've drawn out to four cards. On a four card hand you'd hit all soft totals including 21. You'd hit all hard 16 and below. Hit hard 17 except against dealer 5 and 6.
Reachy there is at least one advantage player that I know that will bet anyone that you will win more hands in a negative count than a positive count.I personally don't know if his theory is correct,but he does admit that you will win more money in a positive count,that I agree with as you are playing said hands in a positive count with at least a 1-5% advantage.So when you are winning your big bets in a positive count your win rate is ramped up like your bets. Now in a controlled situation like a tournament where you only are playing a set amount of hands the 2% is not as large of an EV play but it still something that should be used to your advantage.In a tournament with 30 hands you should receive at least 1.5 blackjacks during the round so thats why I said a minimum bet loses its value in a tournament.When you are in a tournament that pays 3 to 2 you are playing a game with a player disadvantage off the top of the deck.This makes a minimum bet a stronger play,once that is changed it loses it value. Joep
Betting Strategy In Positive EV Games Joep what kind of betting strategy would you recommend? It seems like in a game with 20 hands like at Hinckley, MN betting higher than minimum isn't as valuable as in a game with 42 hands like at St. Ignace. That's because you're not as likely to get a BJ before you get into the late phase of the game with only 20 hands compared to 42. In tournaments lost bets hurt your chances more than won bets help them. But this factor is offset by the higher paying BJ's in 2:1 games. I wonder if betting about 5-10% of your starting bankroll is about right in such games? That's just a guess. 5-10% is overbetting your advantage but Kelly betting doesn't really apply to tournaments anyway. One thing I know for sure is I haven't done well in 2:1 BJ tournaments using the minimum bet strategy.
Ev Still not convinced that 2:1 BJs are reason enough to bet more than minimum. What betting pattern would you recommend? 2X min, 4X, 5X? What size bet is big enough to extract maximum benefit out of the 2:1 rule without seriously risking your BR? Cheers Reachy
2:1 BJ Simulation Lost bets hurt your chances more than won bets help. I don't know by how much. I suspect the size of your bet as a fraction of your BR has a lot to do with it, along with how many bets you will make. A simulation would provide interesting results. The simulation would have to play out the last five or ten hands of the tournament game using tournament strategies to get meaningful results. By the way, I changed post number 5. I made an error of treating EV the same as expected outcome in my previous calculations to arrive at the strategy. I've corrected that error and the strategy.
2-1 bjs don't alter the odds of you winning/losing/pushing hands - they are like a sure to win double down, basically - I play some tourneys with this rule - mainly you have to keep in mind when calculating what you need to cover an opponent - especially on the last hand - it's like they can double down with no chips - but I think altering your strategy bvecause the 'ev' shifts slightly is silly - shouldn't affect your play that much - monkey has it right
2:1 BJ Strategy Thanks for the tip Joep. I'll try your strategy. When I posted lost bets hurt more than won bets help I meant in the early hands. A lost bet brings you that much closer to zero. A won bet brings you that much closer to whatever unknown amount it will take to win the game. I've often thought it would be wise to bet approximately what your opponents are betting in the early hands as long as they're not bombing. A little less than average could be beneficial in a negative EV game. A little more than average is beneficial in a positive EV game. It also depends on the skill level of the opponents.
Monkey your points are strong, as I also follow that mind set also.When its a negative EV bet small when its a positive Ev bet a little more than they are betting.Once you are past the early stages you then readjust your betting according to the bankrolls. Even in the IP Tournament where they deal all the cards out the case is rare where I will bet more than my lead no matter how good the count is.The count will affect how much of my lead I'm willing to risk.If I'm behind the count will be my crutch as to when I'm going to make my move. Good Luck to you with this plan Joep
Taking insurance, never even money, on a 2-1 bj will net you 3/2. No dealer bj.....win 2 lose 1/2...net 3/2 Dealer bj.. win 1....push bj...net 1 bet No insurance.....win 2/1~ 70% push ~30% Let's say $500 bj. Insure for $250....win $750~70%, $500~30%...EV~$675 No insurance.......win $1,000~70%, $0~30%....EV~$700 Do you take the guaranteed win or not?
Insurance? I've only seen very few major tournaments offer 2 to 1 for Blackjack and normally those casinos don't allow insurance bets. If insurance is offered I would take it, as Swog pointed out, it is like getting blackjack in a normal game (if the dealer doesn't have BJ and you would still get your orignal $100 if they do have it). Example: A $100 bet would pay $200, if you take insurance for $50 you make $150, so by all means I would suggest you take insurance. I can't see gambling by not taking it and possibly getting nothing. What you wouldn't do by any means is take even money, you would give away $50 if the dealer doesn't have BJ.
I was also wondering about tournament betting with 2:1 BJ I have been playing in Caesars Indiana Millionaire Maker qualifying tournaments which pays 2:1 BJ. I'm new to tournament BJ, but their rules seem somewhat unusual. Besides 2:1 BJ, they also have no maximum bet limit, and only play 15 hands. (These rules make it harder to build and protect a lead based on skill.) Anyway, I qualified for the Casers Indiana final by playing the standard conservative minimum bet early hand strategy (without realizing they were paying 2:1 for BJ.) Even though I already qualified, I still played in some of the other qualifying tournaments but haven't won again. After thinking about it I've decided that initial minimum betting isn't optimal when the rules provide a positive player expectation. But, I'm not sure about the best strategy. I considered initially flat betting at a level greater than minimum, or perhaps even starting out with a progressive betting scheme. Unfortunately, with the tournament only being 15 hands the number of chances of getting a BJ (justifying larger bets) are limited. But, it's likely that at least several lucrative BJs will occur so it may be necesary to take your chances with larger than minimum bets to be competitive at the end. An aggressive strategy would be to try a betting progression of 1/15, 1/7, 1/3, and 1 - with less than 10% chance of being wiped out. My tentative plan is to flat bet approximately 1/15 of my bankroll (since their are 15 hands) and hope for a BJ and/or other winning hands. Of course it might be better to be even more aggressive with flat bets larger than 1/15 bankroll. I would appreciate any advice and opinions, to improve my chances in the Caesars Indiana final. Thanks. P.S. I also considered varying the bet size based on the running count, but reducing the count at which bet increases are made form the typical count - to compensate for the advantageous player expectation. But, since I'm new to tournaments I think it's better to concentrate on tournament strategy without also having to maintain a running count. But, perhaps someone might want to comment on a good way to adjust bets based on count with advantage from 2:1 BJs.
Count for BJs I forgot possibly my most important thought for taking advantage of 2:1 BJ rules. It would be advantageous to keep a card count optimized for detecting the likehood of getting BJ. Bets and Insurance decisions could then be made according to this card count. As a tournament beginner, I'd prefer not to count cards while playing tournaments. But, since 2:1 BJ is such a big factor it would justify the extra work. So what's the best way to count cards for detecting only the possibilities of BJ. I assume it would involve counting only aces and perhaps tens.
