What advice do people have for tournaments with very favorable rules such that the player has over a 1% edge off the top with basic strategy? If there are 30 rounds, how much should one bet in the early and middle rounds? The top two players from each table advance. Thanks in advance, David
I Don't Know About People, But Monkeys Have This To Say By early to middle hands of a 30 hand round let’s say we’re talking about the first 20 hands. In a game with 2:1 BJ’s you have a roughly 2.5% advantage on your action. So the mathematical expectation is to increase your bankroll by 2.5% * 20 hands * your bet, or ½ of your bet. If you’re betting, say, 10% of your bankroll each hand the first 20 hands you’ll increase your bankroll by an average of 5%. If you’re betting the minimum you’ll increase your bankroll by half a minimum bet on average. 5% of your starting bankroll is pretty inconsequential in a typical blackjack tournament. Whether you increased your bankroll by half a minimum bet or by 5% won’t make much of a difference when it’s time for you to make your move on the leader(s). Of course you won’t increase your bankroll by exactly half a bet every time you play 20 hands of 2:1 blackjack. Sometimes you’ll increase your bankroll by five bets or more. Sometimes you’ll decrease your bankroll by five bets or more. If you’ve increased your bankroll by 5 bets times 10% = 50% with ten hands to play you may very well be the chip leader. Your opponents will soon start taking shots at you, and one or more will likely catch you. The chance of any given player catching you by betting the max or half his bankroll is almost 60%. If you’ve increased your bankroll by five minimum bets you will probably need to make a catch up bet. If you have at least two maximum bets in your bankroll you have an almost 60% chance to increase by a maximum bet and catch up. Obviously you have a better chance of winning if your opponents are playing catch up than if you are. But it’s really not that much better if your opponents are within striking distance of you. If you’ve decreased your bankroll by five minimum bets you will need to make max bets to catch up and you will have a nearly 60% chance of success, the same as if you increased by five minimum bets. However, if you’ve decreased your bankroll by 50% your chance of catching up is very slim because you do not have enough chips left to work with. This illustrates one of the fundamental principles of tournament blackjack: In blackjack tournaments, lost bets hurt you more than equivalent won bets help you. This factor would seem to overcome the 2.5% positive EV you get in 2:1 blackjack. The reason lost bets hurt you more is that there’s a strict limit to how much you can lose, but practically no limit to how much you and your opponents can win. Let’s take the most extreme example of this concept – losing versus winning your starting bankroll. If you lose your entire starting bankroll, you’re done. If you double your starting bankroll, your opponents still have a chance to catch you. Losing a bankroll’s worth of chips hurt you more than winning a bankroll’s worth of chips helped you. Changing the amounts won and lost affects your outcome by degrees, but this basic fact remains the same.
Wow, MonkeySystem you've outdone yourself. This post should be required reading for everyone. It's the most clear and concise explanation of the cardinal principle of tournament strategy I've seen. Nice!
Thanks, Monkeysystem, for the outstanding answer. The advantage in this particular 2:1 blackjack game is quite a bit less than the 2.5% advantage you used, so your points are even more valid. Much appreciated. David
Monkeys make me nervous! Freakin' awesome post, Monkey. Ken's right, it should be required reading for anyone engaging in "TBJ 101" classes! Another way to put it - Let's say you're starting a round. If you begin by bombing away and things don't go your way, you're dead meat because you're out of, or too low on, bullets (chips). However, if you begin with little bitty bets and things don't go your way, you'll still have bullets left to fight your way back. As far as the player advantage over the house with 2:1 BJ's, one must remember a fact that has been pointed out by a few folks here. Since there isn't any strategic thing you can do in BJ to alter the quantity of naturals you receive, the increased payoff will do nothing to the number of hands that you win.
