Next to last hand. Min/Max bet 100/1000 surrender allowed. I am BR1 3001 chips first to act and BR2 (good player) 3000 chips. Now, I know the following things: If I bet 100, BR2 will bet 702. My question is if I am not better to bet 102 luring him take the low and bet 100 knowing that I can take the high on the last hand ? Second question, is BR2 really better on overall if he bets 100 now instead of a 706 bet ? Last question, does Surrender rule have any relevance in this scenario ? PS: - Would be a 802, respectively 806 bet better than 702/706 BR2 bet response ? A BJ by BR2 would guarantee him a max bet lead on the last hand (unless BR1 win a 3 way bet) but at the same time if BR1 win double and BR2 loses, will leave BR2 behind a max bet gap on the last hand, and being first to act would be ugly.
Based on how I replied in http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/bb/showpost.php?p=47382&postcount=4, you now know that I am not personally inclined to make a bet which increases the chances of giving up my lead on the second last hand. As such, I have never considered such a move. As far a surrender is concerned, with a your bet of 102 he can bet 100 and can surrender for a tie if you surrender first. Perhaps not relevant in itself, but it does reveal a tipping point. If you bet more than 102, he can then bet to take the low outright by surrendering.
Yes, it seems that presence of the surrender option helps me even a bit more. But I think a 102 bet will be better instead of 100, in this case, knowing that my opponent will bet that big. And the more I think, I think BR2 should still make that big bet in the amount of 806 (and not 706). - Can you run a sim for these kind of bets and responses or would be too complex since we have no given cards ?
Yes, it may be a little complex to do them all. If I've read your post correctly, you have enumerated 5 2nd last hand possibilities: 3001x100 vs 3000x702 3001x100 vs 3000x802 3001x102 vs 3000x100 3001x102 vs 3000x706 3001x102 vs 3000x806 and each of these lead to 7x7 possible outcomes (-2, -1, -0.5, 0, 1, 1.5, 2), even if we restrict things to one double/split per player. Plus we would have to agree on the likely bets by each player on the final hand for each situation.
We can reduce it a tiny bit by removing the surrender option. And if the result is close then we can assume that with the presence of surrender 102 is better. But yes, I see how complex it is unfortunately .. I still think it is a very interesting situation, too bad we can`t know for sure the answer to it.
