UB futility

just played four tables on UB - consecutive - last one the first round of the $5K - in 41 hands...I won...5

that's a 0.000012734945 probability.

given how much I play, though - say you've played 20000 hands - 2000 tables at 10 hands each?

that's a 22% probability you'll hit a streak like that at least once - probably much higher for me -as I know I have played well over 20,000 hands -

but still frustrating - actually made it to hand 13 without winning a hand at one table - had two tables where I did not win a hand, one where I won one hand - and an amazingly great table where I won...4 hands - that table I actually advanced -

 

No surprise

This was UB and not UBT? No matter, same software with different dressing.

I had a stretch at Bet21 where I won exactly two hands out some somewhere in the mid-50's (have lost the notes now). One of our resident numbers guys figured out that winning only two of 50 was a 1-in-1.5 trillion possibility.
That's trillion with a T - 1,500,000,000,000. Small wonder why I quit, eh?

 

2 of 50

I get 0.00000000020445558 probability for 2 of 50

kind of a long shot

never the less - I have won quite a bit of money on UltimateBet playing EBJ - and as I pointed out - the odds of such a sequence happening as I am seeing tonight - was at least 22% over all the tables I have played - at least once - last table played improved a little - won 6 of 16 -

also pretty sure that UB and UBT are using different software - at least on different servers and different operators

 

final tally

ater a couple of more tables - I ended up winning 18 of 76 hands played - that I had tracked the tables on - that's only a 0.0001895 probability - not such a long shot - given the number of UB tourneys I have played - does make for a frustrating day though

 

more futility

Well - another evening on UltimateBet without a final table - hands not quite as bad this time - played six tables - they ran

won 5 of 20 hands
won 7 of 15
won 7 of 16
won 12 of 30
won 7 of 16
won 0 of 6

Total 38 of 103 or a 36.9% win rate - better than last nights 23.68% - but still considerably under expectation -

so last two nights, over 12 tables - have won 56 of 179 hands - for a 31.3% win rate - which is a 0.00033573888 probability.

guess that qualifies as a 'run of bad luck' - interesting that my three best tables merely hit expectation - nothing significantly above expectation, but 9 tables well below

I keep getting this feeling that the comuter is out to get me

 

Thanks for the heads up on the elimination BJ tournaments on UB, I am only playing the freebies right now, but they are fun! Sure love that I have the flexibility of installing a Windows partition on the new macs so I can finally access these sites...

 

Futility

wasn't really warning players away from UB - just expressing frustration - when you play a lot - which I do on UB (REK1744) - the horrible losing streaks will happen - that was one of the worst I have experienced - and am now in a really bad streak - something like 17 tourneys in a row without a final table - not a matter of losing hands - but - losing the critical hands - such as the one's just before an elimination hand - when I have to bet large - or getting swung at just the wrong time - yuk -

bottom line though - is I have not had a losing month in well over a year - some kind of profit every month - and the profits do accumulate - haven't gotten wealthy - but have made money playing on UB

I do think it is a less skillful game than regular tbj - luck simply plays more of a roll in ebj - so you just have to play a lot and grind out the profits - and deal with the frustrations

 

For the money games, what are the buy-ins?

 

UB Buy-Ins

tournaments have buy-ins from $5 to $100 - plus a 10% entry fee (percentage drops a little on the $100 tourneys, only $8 fee) - also SNGs from $1 to $200 (also 10% entry fee) - $5 tourneys are the most common - only two a week at $100 - one a $2K guaranteed, the other a $5K - all the rest are $5 to $40 buy-ins -

the tournaments can attract anywhere from 20 to 60 players - more or less - with more players in the smaller tournaments - SNGs can be hard to find at even a $10 level sometimes - anything over that - you can wait a long time - or never - get a game - early evening seems to be the best time for SNG play - almost always $1 SNG going - and usually $5 -

I experience a lot of volatility on UB - can run up good profits - then don't get anything for a few days - then run up profits again - can run in place a lot - but if you play enough - the streaks will even out and you can make money - I suggest using good money management - I won't play at a buy-in level that I don't have at least 25 times the buy-in in my account - and for the higher buy-ins I want an even larger multiplier -

I have tracked prize pools, buy-ins, entry fees, and # of players for an extended period a couple of times - both times showed that the tournaments on UB are negative equity - over all - even though some have a guarantee and may run at a slight positive equity - for an individual tournament - but over the long run - fairly close to 10% negative equity - that can be a shock for players used to positive equity live tourneys

if you want big positive equity - some of their poker tourneys can run at close to 200% equity - of course for a really bad poker player like me - that doesn't help -

 

Gypsies, Tramps, and Thieves

I still cannot get my cash out of UB/Bet21. This time, I tried going through UB instead of Bet21 and was again refused. About 90% of it is my own starting bankroll. Nice, eh? :vomit:

 

They're telling me that I need to make a deposit. A load of horse apples. I funded the account by the transfer of a healthy amount from a generous and accommodating BJ friend who was paid back immediately (I refuse to engage in online banking or payments of any kind with the sole exception of airline tickets). Apparently that doesn't count as a deposit from their viewpoint. They won't even let me transfer the balance to anyone else's account, either, even though I'd done that previously to fund Deb's account.

In other words, they want access to some kind of financial account and that ain't happening.
I'm not exactly thrilled with the idea of giving them even more cash when they won't cough up what is already there.

 

Couldn't you send a cheque or a bank wire, then that wouldn't be giving them access to anything and wouldn't be engaging in online banking? (Assuming the UIGEA doesn't prevent you.)

Funnily enough, I recently won a small amount by coming second in a freeroll accumulation tournament at an online casino. Their email, congratulating me on my win, also mentioned that I had to convert my account to a real-money account before I could receive it. As far as I could see, the only way to do that was to make a deposit. Had I been dealing with a company with a poor reputation, I might well have thought twice about this. But this was one of the big names, so I just went ahead and did it.

I guess what I'm saying is that while there may not seem to be a lot of sense in what they are requiring of you, it doesn't necessarily imply anything underhand. But once you lose faith in an organisation, it's hard not view all these things with suspicion.

 

UB security

Probably as the result of their recent and well deserved bad publicity, it seems that UB have really tightened on their security. I have had lots of difficulty with my account for a period of one week due to my request for a partial cash-out. However after a delay of 4 days, (my account was frozen) a cheque was mailed out and it took about 12 days to reach me. It took about 20 e-mails to rectify the problem.Everything appears to be fine right now.
Player to player fund transfers, playing from a different IP address, verification of current address all seem to be under some sort of security check-list.

 

For what it is worth, I closed my UB account about 3 weeks ago, requesting a check. Despite the fact that there was no free way to withdraw the money (which just seems wrong), I got my money within a week without any issues.

 

UB withdrawals

I am surprized with the problems you all are having - I have never had an issue over many withdrawals - but - I have always asked for a 'check by mail' and have kept each withdrawal under the $3,000 limit where they ask for ID and such - so - maybe that is it -

also - has anyone answered the question as to if Bet21 accounts are they same as UB? - I know you can gamble on either site with either account - but do the BEt21 accounts have to be approved for withdrawals by Bet21? as opposed the whatever process UB uses?

 

Nope. Mine was under $3K and was for a Check by Mail. They're just being obstinate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHmmedV0XV4

 

Withdrawals

Leftnut,

Sorry to hear about your withdrawal problems. I know UB was having trouble with withdrawals over a year ago after the anti-gambling legislation passed. However, since that time, my withdrawals have always been timely and problem free.

I don't know what the issue is with requesting a deposit 1st but I just wanted to let you know that I have had no troubles withdrawing. In fact when I made a withdrawal a couple months ago, they even called a week later to check on how it went. This really surprised me, seeing I know that they have been hard to contact at times. They said that customer service does this periodically as a random check.

Anyway, it's your call how you handle this but withdrawals have been fine for me. However, I will you at the tables.

Jon

 

Not being able to transfer the funds doesn't make much sense, I guess they have their reason's, but I can't understand why you couldn't at least transfer the funds back to the player you got the funds from in the first place.

 

<< They won't even let me transfer the balance to anyone else's account, either,>>

Doesnt the cheating scandal at UBT involve money transfers between accounts? I would think UBT would put a stop to all player to player transfers.