Week Seven, World Series of Blackjack 2005

This week's lineup for WSOB 2005 on GSN:
Angie Moneytaker, Jimmy Pine, Ken Einiger, Rick Jensen, Jean Scott
Friday Mar 11, 10 PM premiere, 1 AM encore
Sat Mar 12, 8 PM
Sun Mar 13, 7 PM
Tue Mar 15, 10 PM

Post your thoughts here. Look for my recap of this show to be posted here, hopefully this weekend.

 

Show Recap part 1

Tonight's lineup:

In seat one is Angie Moneytaker, aka cmonseven here at BJT. She describes herself as a domestic goddess who hails from Colorado Springs. She's been under the spotlights before, making it to the final table in the Las Vegas Hilton's Million Dollar Blackjack II in 2004. In tonight's pre-game, she says "I'm going to do my darndest to distract these guys, to the best of my ability."

Next up is Jimmy Pine, the self-proclaimed 'Little Man' of Blackjack. Referring to his third place finish in WSOB 2004, Jimmy says: "The little people want to be number one, not number three."

Ken Einiger (kennye here at BJT) is in seat three. He's a seasoned tournament pro with tons of success in big money events. On the finals: "I'm going to be there. It's for me. It's happening."

In seat four is Rick Jensen, aka TxTourPlayer. Rick's been on the circuit for several years, and he's been involved in running some tournaments as well as competing in them. Tonight he says "I'm going to play every possible percentage in my favor."

Last up is a face that is likely familiar if you watch much gambling-oriented programming on the Travel Channel. Jean Scott is the author of 'Frugal Gambling', and she's known as the 'Queen of Comps'. She's an expert at extracting maximum value from the comp system, particularly for low-rollers. Her forte is video poker, but she also recently took first place in a blackjack tournament at the Rio. True to form, she tells us "A day without casino mail is like a day without sunshine."

If all the players hang around for the duration, it's Jean Scott who will have the dreaded button on the last hand.

Hand 1:
*Angie: $100,000 $1000 J2
Jimmy: $100,000 $1000 5Q
Ken: $100,000 $5000 J8
Rick: $100,000 $3000 58
Jean: $100,000 $20000 57

Dealer 67J

Jean Scott came to play tonight, and I think against this field this is a good gutsy start, and a $20K win.

Hand 2:
Angie: $101,000 $1000 J4T
*Jimmy: $101,000 $1000 8T
Ken: $105,000 $5000 9K
Rick: $103,000 $3000 84 Surr
Jean: $120,000 $10000 A6Q

Dealer 946

An unorthodox surrender by Rick here, but an effective one since Jean's Queen would have busted him. Kenny
s push is the sole survivor this hand.

Hand 3:
Angie: $100,000 $1000 A72
Jimmy: $100,000 $5000 325K
*Ken: $105,000 $1000 A243
Rick: $101,500 $3000 93 Surr
Jean: $110,000 $1000 63T

Dealer 9T

I guess TxTour figures that it worked on hand 2, so he again surrenders 12v9. And, again he saves $1500. With nice hits around the table, no one else lost this hand, but Jean still leads.

Hand 4:
Angie: $101,000 $1000 5J
Jimmy: $105,000 $1000 6T
Ken: $106,000 $1000 85
*Rick: $100,000 $8000 8T
Jean: $110,000 $10000 9A

Dealer AK

Given his propensity to surrender, Angie tries to goad Rick into a big bet this hand. It sort of works. Rick never gets a chance to surrender though, when Deanna turns over a blackjack.

Skip to Hand 7:
Angie: $ 99,000 $1000 67
*Jimmy: $100,500 $3000 52
Ken: $104,500 $8000 7Q (Ins $4000)
Rick: $ 78,500 $10500 Q3
Jean: $ 91,000 $10000 87 (Ins $5000)

Dealer AK

Hand 4 saw a chunk of chips disappear from Rick and Jean, and the commercial break was even tougher on them. Since hand 3, more than $40K has disappeared into the rack from their stacks. When Deanna shows an Ace, Kenny protects his lead with full insurance though a smaller amount would have sufficed. Jean also insures, though it's of dubious value here. But both insurance bets sure look good when Deanna has a King in the hole.

Skip to Hand 9:
Angie: $ 99,000 $1000 A3T4
Jimmy: $ 92,500 $5000 65 Dbl 3
Ken: $112,500 $1000 K4Q
*Rick: $ 68,000 $4500 K3A7
Jean: $ 86,000 $1000 AA Split -> A2 / AA / AT / A2

Dealer 764

It's raining Aces on the table, and Jean ends up with four hands, but only one good one. At least she only had a minimum bet working.

Skip to Hand 13:
Angie: $ 98,000 $1000 65 Dbl 3
Jimmy: $ 83,500 $1000 68
*Ken: $109,000 $1000 44K
Rick: $ 80,250 $12000 8J
Jean: $ 78,000 $1000 QQ Split -> Q7 / Q3

Dealer 479

Deanna cleans up the table here, dropping Rick back into last place. It's starting to look like the Kenny E show.

-- continued in next post --

 

Show Recap part 2

Hand 14:

Angie: $ 96,000 $1000 29 Dbl 2
Jimmy: $ 82,500 $14000 T4
Ken: $108,000 $1000 69
*Rick: $ 68,250 $14000 J3
Jean: $ 76,000 $5000 Q5

Dealer 6Q9

Matt and Max point out that these mid-range bets haven't been working for Rick, but he's sticking with them. I tend to agree here, and think either big or small is better. Jimmy makes the same bet here, but in his case a double would give him the lead assuming Kenny bets the minimum, which he does.

Hand 15:
Angie: $ 98,000 $1000 K9
Jimmy: $ 96,500 $1000 A7
Ken: $109,000 $1000 KT
Rick: $ 82,250 $13000 A7
*Jean: $ 81,000 $1000 38

Dealer AQ

Rick is obviously feeling beaten up so far, as he says he'd like to follow the table with a minimum bet but he knows he can't afford to. Despite winning the previous hand, he's had some pretty bad cards tonight. He lets that affect his play here, and he passes up a maximum-swing opportunity when every single bet ahead of him is $1000. He risks only $13,000 rather than going for the lead. It turns out to save him money as Deanna has yet another dealer blackjack.

Skip to Hand 18:
Angie: $ 95,500 $1000 25529
Jimmy: $ 96,500 $1000 K4T
*Ken: $106,500 $1000 JQ
Rick: $ 76,250 $18500 97Q
Jean: $ 73,500 $10000 9T

Dealer KT

Just more of the same this hand, as Rick and Jean continue spiraling downward.

Hand 19:
Angie: $ 94,500 $1000 64 Dbl 7
Jimmy: $ 95,500 $1000 92 Dbl Q
Ken: $106,500 $1000 63A
*Rick: $ 57,750 $20500 KJ
Jean: $ 63,500 $30000 56 Dbl J

Dealer 7J

The two table laggards fire up some big bets, but I still think they should bet even more here. This time they both get good cards to go with the big bets, and Jean gets almost all her money working on this double. It's a dramatic big win, and she vaults from a dismal fourth to take over the lead.

Hand 20:
Angie: $ 94,500 $1000 A36
Jimmy: $ 97,500 $15000 69 Surr
Ken: $107,500 $10000 39 Surr
Rick: $ 82,250 $27000 3K7
*Jean: $123,500 $2000 99 Split -> 9A / 92 Dbl 8

Dealer Q8

There's a glitch in the screen graphics this hand, as Rick's bankroll inexplicably changes from $78,250 to $82,250. Since Matt clearly tells us his bankroll is $82,250, I'm assuming there was an issue somewhere along the way, and we'll go with that total here.

Jean starts off the play with this wacky 9-split, but it works out for her. Jimmy makes an appropriate basic strategy surrender here. Ken, holding 12vT, follows up with a surprising defensive surrender of his own! I don't see the point, and it costs him $15,000 because he would have won the hand with the 7 that Rick drew.

Hand 21:
*Angie: $ 95,500 $7000 KA
Jimmy: $ 90,000 $25000 4AA8J
Ken: $102,500 $20000 QQ (Insure $10,000)
Rick: $109,250 $25500 7AJ
Jean: $129,500 $1000 8K

Dealer A6

My how things have changed, as Rick and Jean have gone from laggard to leaders. Angie makes her first non-minimum bet of the round, and draws her first blackjack to go with it. Jimmy bets enough to shoot for second, or better if he can double. Ken's bet is an odd choice, as it's not enough to go for Jean. Rick keeps a low over Ken and bets what he can. Jean's inexperience shows here, when a too-timid bet from last position opens the door for Rick. He walks through it and into the lead.

Hand 22:
Angie: $106,000 $20000 23J
*Jimmy: $ 65,000 $50000 8T
Ken: $112,500 $19000 65 Dbl Q
Rick: $134,750 $19500 J9
Jean: $130,500 $10000 QA

Dealer 67K

No little bet for the little man this round, as last-place Jimmy Pine gets a max bet working from the button. Ken's bet is a wee bit short to catch Rick, and Max describes it as a setup bet prior to the button passing him. Max identifies Rick's bet as matching up with Ken, but there's a more important angle to his bet. It holds back just more than the $115,000 that Jimmy will accrue with a win. Jean's $10K is not bad at all here. Angie has last position, but isn't willing to keep pace yet. Despite that, she's hoping for a 9 to go with her deuce as Deanna deals the round. Once Deanna shows a six, Angie appears to consider doubling her total of 5, but finally just hits it. Hint for next time, Angie: If you'd like to win $40K, bet $40K. Better yet, winning a max bet here could have given you the lead.

Hand 23:
Angie: $126,000 $28000 JT
Jimmy: $115,000 $50000 39 Dbl Q
*Ken: $150,500 $9000 63 Dbl 2
Rick: $154,250 $8500 4Q
Jean: $145,500 $20000 5A Dbl 3

Dealer 6T4

Ken bets double his deficit from the button. It's a nice low-risk shot, and he knows he'll have an excellent position next hand to compensate if it doesn't work out. Note that he can also surrender and beat a push by Jean. I like Rick's matchup bet here. Knowing he has last bet on the final hand, I think he can afford to let the others take a shot here. Jean of course can now shoot for the lead, and she does. Intentional or not, her bet looks great against a possible max-bet win by Jimmy. On the other hand, I would have guaranteed first high, betting at least $30,500 to cover Angie as well. But, Jean turns out to have a better read anyway, since Angie doesn't take the offered high on this hand either.

The fireworks are just starting though, as Ken and Jean take basic strategy doubles. When the action gets around to Jimmy, Max and Matt seem surprised by his double. I think this is one of the best plays of the night. If he cashes it, he's got a big lead. Contrary to Max's comment that he's playing 'for the same result', Jimmy's play is a bold shot at the lead, no matter what happens to the other hands at the table. But it wasn't to be.


-- continued in next post --

 

Show Recap part 3

Hand 24:
Angie: $126,000 $50000 K4 Surr
Jimmy: $ 15,000 $14000 TJ
Ken: $132,500 $50000 89 Surr
*Rick: $145,750 $13500 452A5
Jean: $105,500 $40000 4T

Dealer 276A9

Rick overbets his lead by $250. Jean struggles to decide, and finally settles on $40K. Max is right, $50K would be better. From the button on the final hand, she needs all the ammo she can get. Angie finally takes first high with a max bet, but now Kenny takes it right back since he's leading her and betting last this hand. Angie needs to make something happen this hand. Either hitting or standing are better choices than surrender, and I think I prefer hitting once here. Kenny's surrender is more interesting, but still not a good choice in my opinion. When Deanna busts, he's more than a max bet behind Rick, who also has the benefit of last bet.

Hand 25:
Angie: $101,000 $50000 7Q Dbl 9
Jimmy: $ 29,000 $20500 K3K
Ken: $107,500 $50000 TQ Split -> TQ / QQ
Rick: $159,250 $50000 63 Dbl 7
*Jean: $145,500 $30500 4T Dbl T

Dealer 94J

The interesting play on this hand was a mistake by Rick, who didn't need to double at the end. He explained how he came to make that error, and you may find it interesting.

Prior to the hand being dealt, Rick knows he has more than a max bet lead over everyone at the table, except Jean. When Jean doesn't bet enough, Rick also realizes that a max bet by him covers her if she doubles, but not by much. (It's just $2750.) She does double, but he knows he's OK. (Remember, Jean's double down card is face-down, so neither Ken or Rick know she has already busted.) Then, Kenny splits and makes two twenties. Thinking through the situation, Rick realizes that Kenny can now pass Jean, and since he knows that he only covered Jean by a small amount, he mistakenly assumes that Kenny can now pass him as well. So, he doubles, and gets away with a potentially disastrous error when Deanna busts.

Rick takes first place, Kenny second.

 

A tough decision you avoided

Rick, your hand 24 play wasn't as bad as you say. The $250 only matters if Kenny pushes while you lose.

Your double on the last hand allowed you to avoid a very difficult choice on the last hand....

If you didn't double, then you hit once and now you have 16. Kenny has two twenties, and the dealer has a nine up. Do you now hit or stand?

Wong's 'Win Both Ways' table says hit to 17, but it doesn't apply exactly here. It's OK for Kenny to push while you lose. I didn't know the answer to this, so I had to figure it.

For those who are interested in the method used, here it is. The dealer hand percentages come from www.blackjackinfo.com/bjtourn-dealercharts.php

If Rick stands with 16, he wins if the dealer busts, makes 20, or makes 21. That's 41%.

If Rick hits once, he busts 8/13 of the time, and makes 17/18/19/20/21 each 1/13 of the time.

If he busts, he still advances if the dealer makes 20 or 21. (8/13) * 18%.
With a 17, he advances with a dealer bust as well. (1/13) * 41%
With 18, he advances with a dealer 17 as well. (1/13) * 53%
With 19, he advances with a dealer 18 as well. (1/13) * 65%
With 20 or 21, he's a lock. (2/13) * 100%

Add all that up, and you get 38.7%

Standing is better, 41% to 38.7%.

 

Anthony Curtis' analysis is posted

Anthony's comments on episode 7 are now posted at the LVA site:
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/referenceguide-tournaments-wsob2.cfm#episode7