Week Thirteen (Finals!): Ken Einiger, Rick Jensen, Stanford Wong and Kami Lis Friday Apr 22, 10 PM premiere, 1 AM encore Sun Apr 24, 7 PM Mon Apr 25, 11 PM Tue Apr 26, 10 PM Thu Apr 28, 1 AM Late in posting, late in watching, and late in recapping. Congrats Kenny E though! I hope to have the recap up in a day or two.
Anthony Curtis' analysis is posted It's at http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/referenceguide-tournaments-wsob2.cfm#episode13
Show Recap part 1 Final Table Four players have survived the elimination rounds, and tonight's round will decide which of these four takes home a quarter million dollars. Texan Rick Jensen is in seat one, Polish Kami Lis is the only female at the table in seat two. Stanford Wong is third and Kenny Einiger rounds out the finalists. With a 28 hand round, Kenny Einiger will be on the final button if all players remain. The prizes for tonight's players are $250,000 for first, $50,000 for second and $10,000 for third. The fourth place finisher gets nothing tonight. Hand 1: *Rick:.....$100,000.....$4500....55 Dbl 6 Kami:......$100,000.....$1000....6T Surr Stanford:..$100,000.....$1000....4Q24 Ken:.......$100,000.....$1000....T428 Dealer A9 Rick starts off with the biggest bet at the table, and then plays the hand pretty aggressively as well. It's a move that ends up costing him $9000. Hand 2: Rick:......$ 91,000.....$4500....9Q *Kami:.....$ 99,500.....$1000....3K Stanford:..$100,000.....$2000....T4 Ken:.......$ 99,000.....$1000....TT Dealer 2J37 Rick recovers half of his $9000 on this hand, which holds no surprises. Hand 3: Rick:......$ 95,500.....$4500....86 Surr Kami:......$100,500.....$1000....A8 *Stanford:.$102,000.....$1000....578 Ken:.......$100,000.....$1000....494 Dealer T6A While we're away after this hand, Stanford extends his lead a little more. Skip to Hand 6: Rick:......$ 98,500.....$8500....JQ *Kami:.....$100,500.....$1000....TK Stanford:..$106,000.....$2000....K6 Ken:.......$100,000.....$1000....98 Dealer 6KK Hand 7: Rick:......$107,000.....$1500....936 Kami:......$101,500.....$1000....66J *Stanford:.$108,000.....$1000....AQ Ken:.......$101,000.....$1000....82 Dbl T Dealer 854 Stanford seems to be in the hot seat so far. Hand 8: Rick:......$108,500.....$2500....T45 Kami:......$100,500.....$1000....3K3A Stanford:..$109,500.....$5000....5285 *Ken:......$103,000.....$1000....Q49 Dealer 9336 Stanford risks a few chips of his lead over third and fourth place, and would stay ahead of a Rick double. He looks good with a four-card 20 until Deanna does him one better with a four-card 21. Rick takes the lead. Hand 9: *Rick:.....$106,000.....$1500....5T Surr Kami:......$ 99,500.....$1000....KQ Stanford:..$104,500.....$5000....88 Split -> 86T / 845 Ken:.......$102,000.....$1000....J33A Dealer KK Stanford immediately comes back with another $5000 bet and ends up losing $10K on the hand after splitting eights. Hand 13: *Rick:.....$111,750.....$1500....95 Surr Kami:......$100,500.....$1000....779 Stanford:..$ 94,500.....$20000...Q7 Ken:.......$103,000.....$8000....585 Dealer TK Nearly half-way into the round, Stanford fires up the first really big bet of the round in a bid to move from last to first place. Meanwhile, Ken's bet of $8000 fits a profile we've seen him use before, betting to get back in the mix but not going for the outright lead. He preserves a few extra chips if it doesn't work out, and he can still swing Rick to take the lead here if Stanford doesn't get paid. Whatever the thinking, it is a strategy that has been very successful for him. Hand 14: Rick:......$111,000.....$3500....T9 *Kami:.....$ 99,500.....$1000....64 Dbl T Stanford:..$ 74,500.....$24500...T9 Ken:.......$ 95,000.....$1000....29 Dbl A Dealer 836 Stanford bets a third of his bank, quite possibly the first hand of a two-hand progression that could see him exiting the table. But it pays off, and he's right back in the hunt. Hand 15: Rick:......$114,500.....$6500....AA Split -> A4 / A7 Kami:......$101,500.....$1000....7J *Stanford:.$ 99,000.....$10000...7J Ken:.......$ 93,000.....$1000....T25 Dealer 8A Now that the button has passed Kami, she pauses a while before pushing this 15th straight minimum bet in the circle. I expect that if Stanford hadn't fired up another substantial bet that we would have seen Kami come out of her shell. I'm a fan of her approach here. So far, she's taken absolutely no risk, and she's in second place going into this hand. With some help from Deanna on this hand, she improves her position some more and trails Rick by only $1000. Hand 16: Rick:......$101,500.....$1000....24T4 Kami:......$100,500.....$1000....56 Dbl 8 Stanford:..$ 89,000.....$15000...Q9 *Ken:......$ 92,000.....$1000....QK Dealer 7J Stanford takes advantage of the all-min-bet opponents, and bets just enough to take the lead even if Rick were to double. Finally his last-to-first move is a success. Hand 17: *Rick:.....$102,500.....$8500....K3 Kami:......$102,500.....$7500....45 Stanford:..$104,000.....$8000....72 Ken:.......$ 93,000.....$1000....K5 Dealer JA Now Kami takes an opportune time to deviate from her min-bet strategy by instead matching Rick's bet less a chip. She passes him when Deanna turns over a blackjack, but both still trail Stanford who makes an ideal bet in between them. Hand 18: Rick:......$ 94,000.....$2500....575 *Kami:.....$ 95,000.....$3000....427A7 Stanford:..$ 96,000.....$1000....JT Ken:.......$ 92,000.....$1000....QK Dealer T8 I'm surprised that Rick didn't choose a side on this hand. Instead, he's 3rd high and 3rd low. With small bets and a very tight field it's not a big deal, but it does waste an opportunity. However, when he ends up the only loser, he's actually fortunate that he didn't make a play for the high. Stanford also made a decision here to let Kami have the high, and she now leads as a result. Hand 19: Rick:......$ 91,500.....$14500...69 Surr Kami:......$ 98,000.....$1000....T26 *Stanford:.$ 97,000.....$1000....Q9 Ken:.......$ 93,000.....$1000....K5 Surr Dealer Q9 Rick gets some grief from Max over surrendering this 15 (a six was the next card), but I think it's a prudent move at this stage of the game, even though a win would have given him the lead. Hand 20: Rick:......$ 84,250.....$17500...5T Kami:......$ 97,000.....$1000....87 Stanford:..$ 97,000.....$1000....8T *Ken:......$ 92,500.....$1000....25J Dealer 4382 Rick bets for the lead again, but yet another fifteen delivers a significant blow. -- continued in next post --
Show Recap part 2 Hand 21: *Rick:.....$ 66,750.....$22000...39Q Kami:......$ 96,000.....$2000....QK Stanford:..$ 98,000.....$1000....3J7 Ken:.......$ 92,500.....$15000...473T Dealer A7 Rick bets a third of his stack, while Ken bets to take the lead. But the small bets win while the big bets lose, and the chip stacks on the ends dwindle further. Stanford maintains his lead by $1000. Hand 22: Rick:......$ 44,750.....$22000...85 *Kami:.....$ 98,000.....$7000....274 Stanford:..$ 99,000.....$1000....44J Ken:.......$ 77,500.....$1000....AT Dealer 3J9 I think Stanford would be better served defending his lead with a matching bet here. Rick bets half his remaining stack where I think all-in makes more sense. Ken takes the hand off, and as Murphy's Law would predict gets a blackjack. Hand 23: Rick:......$ 66,750.....$22000...7J Kami:......$105,000.....$1000....5328 *Stanford:.$100,000.....$1000....37 Dbl 7 Ken:.......$ 79,000.....$1000....5A Dbl T Dealer 4KQ Even from the button, Stanford should probably make a play of some sort here. A bet of $5500 would open the door for a win/push against Kami with minimal risk of dropping a spot on the leaderboard. Hand 24: Rick:......$ 88,750.....$15500...65 Dbl 6 Kami:......$106,000.....$22000...8T Stanford:..$102,000.....$1000....T6 *Ken:......$ 81,000.....$30000...T4 Dealer 2TT Last-place Ken bets to take the lead from the button, which should allow Rick to defend. He doesn't. Kami bets enough to cover a blackjack by Ken. Stanford takes the low, but by doing so with a minimum bet he ends up fourth-high. If he made a larger bet yet kept the low, he would be able to maneuver via doubling or surrender after seeing everyone else play out the hand. It's a costly mistake as a Deanna dealer bust moves him to last place. Rick makes amends for a too-small initial bet when he gets a good double and moves into second place. Hand 25: *Rick:.....$119,750.....$8500....49 Surr Kami:......$128,000.....$16000...3AK7 Stanford:..$103,000.....$1000....Q236 Ken:.......$111,000.....$40000...J9 Dealer K25 Rick's bet is a little short to go for the lead here. Kami makes a to-the-chip bet keeping first low. Stanford's minimum wager is out of place here because it guarantees he can't move up. Even though he has the position advantage on the last hand, the fact remains that he's in last place. Kenny does what needs doing plus a few chips to spare. Rick's surrender here doesn't accomplish anything. It can't change the ranking after the hands no matter what happens with the other players. He already covers a push by Ken. The surrender just guarantees a $4250 loss with no possible benefit. As a general rule, surrender late in the game only when the chips you are preserving make a tangible difference. Hand 26: Rick:......$115,500.....$50000...2273 *Kami:.....$144,000.....$26000...QA Stanford:..$104,000.....$50000...8K Ken:.......$151,000.....$20000...KQ Dealer 7J Pretty good bet by Kami from the button here, neither giving up the low to third or fourth, nor yielding a max-bet high to either of them. Stanford's only real choice is a max bet, and fortunately it still represents more than his current deficit. Ken bets as little as he can and still correlate with Kami. Although Max describes it as a perfect bet, I think a bet of $23K is better in case Kami and he both get double hands. FYI, that's an easy calculation at the table. You simply need to match your trailing opponent's bet within half the lead, not within the whole lead. (Ken leads by $7000, so he needs to match up with a difference of less than $3500.) Tough decision for Rick on this split. Splitting 2s vs a 7 is a basic strategy play, but it's not exactly a strong offensive play. While he could sure use a $100K win, I don't know whether I would split these if the other players held weak hands. But, with a twenty in front of Ken and a blackjack in front of Kami, splitting has a lot of appeal. However, there's no question about the appropriate play once he chooses to hit and makes a 14. Standing here is not a reasonable plan, but he does it anyway. The lead flip-flops again, with Kami's blackjack giving her the chip advantage with two hands to go. Hand 27: Rick:......$ 65,500.....$50000...485 Kami:......$183,000.....$22000...6Q Surr *Stanford:.$154,000.....$25000...57K Ken:.......$171,000.....$40000...522324 Dealer 777 Betting from the button and third place is a tough spot, and I think Stanford just wanted to stay in the mix with this half-max bet. However, I agree with Max on this situation... Either bet a little or bet a lot. Kami's bet is a strong double-purpose play. She can surrender to beat a push by Ken, but a straight win covers a Stanford double by $1000. However, she's playing a dangerous game by giving Ken the outright high here. Another strong choice for her bet would be $28,500. Hand 28: Rick:......$ 15,500.....$15500...58 Kami:......$172,000.....$50000...95 Stanford:..$129,000.....$1000....97 *Ken:......$131,000.....$50000...A8 Dbl 3 Dealer 59Q Kami takes a $41,000 lead into the last hand, insuring that there are many ways for her to win. Ken leads off with the expected $50K, and Rick is all-in. Kami shouldn't be overbetting her lead here, but she matches Ken's bet completely leaving the low available to Stanford. Stanford takes it with a minimum bet, which is itself a poor play. (Anything between $2500 and $6500 can beat a push by Ken.) Just remember, there's no value in a lower low. When you want to take the low, bet all you can and still keep the low. There's a bigger problem with taking the low in this spot. If Ken busts his hand, Kami will surrender and Stanford will be locked into second place. Instead of taking this risky low, Stanford should make a big bet. He could then win with any kind of a swing: W/P, W/L, Dbl/W, etc. Kami has played a very good round until now, but this hand presents her with a confusing decision and she makes a critical error. After Ken doubles, she should surrender here, but doubling would also be a better choice than her standing stiff. Once she stands stiff, she can't win. If the dealer busts, Ken wins. If the dealer makes a hand, Stanford beats her and Ken's double card determines whether she finishes second or third. Rick also has a lapse in attention, which is understandable under the circumstances. He can try to swing Ken and possibly tie him for third place, but he also stands stiff thinking his hand is immaterial. Enough of all that stuff, the real news here is a well-deserved victory by one of tournament blackjack's brightest stars. The card gods have smiled on Kenny E a lot lately, and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Well done! You'll make a great spokesman for competitive blackjack. Kenny Einiger, World Champion of Blackjack 2005
finals had of wsobj finals On bj21.com Greend Chip forum Wong thought that bets of $3 to $6K were his best choice but later agreed that $12K was the best bet – that propelled me to write my own analysis. Since many users of this site couldn’t read it, I repost it here. It is strange how much easier it is to think things (what a trained brain can accomplish in a flash – well, give it a minute or two) and how long, tired and awkward it appears when it is broken into pieces and laid down for analysis. But here we go. There are always ranges of possible bets. They are determined by assuming likely final bankrolls of opponents. Let’s look at this table (I skipped Rick as he had only a very, very slim chance for the second place): Player................Ken..........Kami..........Stanford Bankroll (Push)....131..........172.............129 Bet...................50...........50................? Lose double.........31............72 Lose single..........81..........122 Surrender..........106..........147 Single win..........181..........222 Blackjack ..........206..........247 Double win.........231..........272 From Stanford point of view (look at the table above) he would like to: lose no more than $57K (to have more money left if both Ken and Kami lose their doubles), lose no more than $6K (to beat opponents losing single bets), win at least $3K (to overcome Ken’s push), win $19K, then $54K, $78K, $94K, and $128K (achievable by winning a split and double -to beat opponents even if Ken wins doubled bet and Kami takes a blackjack) – you got the picture. When deciding amounts of bets we need to realize existing tradeoffs and (often times quite different) appropriate playing strategy. $3K bet seems to be better than any bigger bet for “having low” to Kami and “win to Ken’s push”, as it also allows Stanford to split offensively to two hands (to net gain at least one bet and overcome Ken’s push) and still beat Kami if Stanford and Kami both happen to lose. The problem is that there is no situation where you would be better off by splitting. The closest would be both, Ken and Kami, doubling on soft seventeen and dealer showing seven, and Stanford having pair of eights – but even then hitting (to eighteen) is better play. So there is no difference between bets of $3K to $6K – never split and hit to at least 18 and one point more than Ken’s total. Second option would be bet that wins at least $19K. Bets from the range of $10K to $12K carry twofold benefits. Doubling can win desired $19K and surrender loses no more than $6K. The third option would be bets of over $43K (and exactly $43K). Any full value gain like win/push or push/win to both opponents gives Stanford first place. Now, we have to assume the likelihood of opponents making specific plays. With the bets being the way they were made Ken needs to (and knowing his style and experience he would) double most of his hands. Actually, almost 80 percent of all hands should be doubled in his situation. The other 20% are hands totaling eight or less and high pat hands with dealer showing seven and up and Kami’s total worse than Ken’s. Kami response to Ken’s double should be twofold. If chance for Ken’s win is bigger than 50% Kami should double if her chance of winning is close or better than Ken’s not winning. If chance for Ken’s win is lesser than 50% Kami should double if her chance of winning and pushing together is over 50% - otherwise surrender. If Stanford had made a big bet Kami would had to group Ken’s and Stanford’s chances together; it would be chances of winning by either one or both of them. I will cut to the chase and give my estimate numbers. Taking low with optimal play by opponents gives Stanford about 11%-12% chance to win the tournament. Taking high with optimal play by opponents gives Stanford about 16%-17% chance to win the tournament. The difference between $3K and $10K bets is rather insignificant as Ken has to push or lose, Kami has to surrender and Wong needs to win double bet. This come at the price of decreased number of hands won if they are played to “18 plus one”. Therefore, betting straight $19K or more is a better bet. Still the best bet is $43K -mostly for addotional value of chances to split to three hands, confusing the leader as to how to play her hand (double or surrender). Next best bet is $47K -most value comes from getting a twenty or a blackjack and opponents not winning their hands, and then followed by still a very good bet of $48 to $50K. Final note, in this complicated situation, there are about equal chances for opponents making mistakes regardless of Stanford bet. In this case mathematically best bet, without psychological amends, still remains the best bet. Regards, S. Yama
