Week Three, World Series of Blackjack 2

Here's tonight's lineup:
Nicki Vermuelen, Regina Guzior, Robert Blechman, Stanford Wong, Dr Richard Taraska

This show airs tonight, Friday Feb 4th at 10 PM Eastern and Pacific, with repeats at 1 AM, Saturday @ 8 PM, Sunday @ 7 PM, and Tuesday @ 10 PM.

I'm home this weekend, so the recap should be posted in a timely fashion.

Regina is a member here (BJ SWEETHEART), and I'll invite Blechman and Wong to participate as well. If anyone has contact info for Nicki and Richard, feel free to pass along my invitation.

 

Show Recap part 1

Let's meet the players:

Nicki Vermeulen, a blackjack player who's also a cocktail waitress at the Imperial Palace, she sounds ready to go: "Nothing is gonna intimidate me at all."

Regina Guzior, last year's fourth place finisher in this event, talks about her ability to keep track of the cards: "You can train your brain to do just about anything. I really believe that." Regina is blind, and is assisted by her husband John who tells her about the cards and bets at the table. His assistance is limited strictly to conveying the information that Regina can't see. All the decisions must be hers.

Robert Blechman is a veteran on the tournament circuit, having played hundreds of events over the last five years. Speaking about players with less tournament experience: "I think I'm going to have a significant advantage over them."

Stanford Wong is a prolific author about all things blackjack. His book 'Casino Tournament Strategy' is required reading for tournament players. His comments about the pressure of being considered an expert: "The pressure on me is that I don't want to make a mistake that's such an obvious bonehead mistake that other people recognize it and say 'Hey, look who made that mistake.'"

Richard Taraska is an ER trauma doctor from Los Angeles who's played numerous tournaments. On tournament play: "Sometimes you have to do crazy things to get an advantage."


The players are seated as follows, from first base: Nicki, Regina, Robert, Stanford and Richard. The button starts in front of Nicki, meaning that Richard will be on the button for the last hand, if everyone stays in for all 25 hands.

Hand 1: Everyone starts with a minimum $1000 bet except Regina, who bets $3000. Robert takes the lead with a blackjack while everyone else at the table is beaten by the dealer Deanna when she hits a 16 with a 4.

Hand 2: Regina backs off to $2000 which is what Stanford bets as well, trying to make up for a double-down loss on the initial hand. The rest of the table sticks with minimum bets. Deanna looks under her upcard Jack and announces "It's not an Ace", which prompts Regina to ask "What is it?". The sympathy angle pays no dividends, although Regina does hit 12 to make 19. During Robert's play, Max observes that he's not too thrilled to be on Stanford Wong's right. Robert's pre-game interview and commentary from Max explain the importance of position, and how a player to your left gets to react to your bet and cards. Richard and Regina push while Deanna collects all the rest.

Hand 3: Robert leads off $1000, and Wong tries 'switching colors' to change his luck, betting $1500. Dr Richard bets $1000, while Nicki and Regina wager $2000. Against another dealer face card, Robert raises the first white flag of the night, surrendering a 15. Deanna has a pat 20, which pushes Stanford's 4-card effort and Regina's pat hand. Dr Richard and Nicki lose their bets. Robert's back to his starting stake of $100,000, which is good enough for first place at the moment.

Hand 4: Stanford bets $3000 of his $96,000, and Richard follows up with $5000 from his bankroll of $98,000. Nicki is at $96,000 and bets $3000. $97K Regina bets $3000, and Robert bets the minimum. The cards come out and Stanford has the best hand at the table, a meager 18 (A,2,5). As Deanna draws to her upcard 3, we hear Robert's insincere plea "Don't make a hand." Insincere or not, Deanna answers it by busting, and Dr Richard is the new chip-leader.

Skip to Hand 7:
Nicki: $103,000
Regina: $111,000
Robert: $105,000
Stanford: $110,000
Richard: $114,000

Regina is on the button, leading off with a $5000 bet aimed at the lead. Robert and Stanford follow with $1000 preferring to let her take the risk alone. Even Dr Richard doesn't protect his lead, betting $1000 and giving Regina the shot. Nicki is not as timid, risking $6000 and drawing criticism from Max, who advocates either a minimum bet or enough to take the lead. At least it's still early. Regina gets applause from a supportive audience when she draws a blackjack, but Deanna stops the celebration short when she flips up an Ace. Regina insures her blackjack, and we get a classic Regina smile when Deanna does indeed have a blackjack.

When Regina apologizes to the other players for celebrating their misfortune, Stanford says "We're all rooting for you", a comment which draws nervous laughter from the table, a sly smile from Regina and a curious look from Nicki.

Hand 8: All the guys make minimum bets. Nicki bets $2000 and the new leader Regina bets $4000, an odd choice since she and Richard now both have $112,000 in unbet chips. Max overlooks that, instead stating that she bet "part of her lead". Deanna turns up another Ace, allowing Max and Matt to provide a misleading stat. Matt: "What are the odds of back-to-back dealer blackjacks?" Max: "About 440 to 1." I'm guessing that most of the viewers won't realize that those were the odds before hand 7, not after.

When Robert tries to double on his three-card 11, we get the second unexplained comic-book reference of the night from Matt. Robert draws a face card for 21, Stanford busts, and the Dr makes 19. Nicki stands with 20 and Regina busts her 12. Deanna pays the survivors and Dr Richard retains the lead, at $114,000.

Hand 9: Stanford and Richard bet $1000, Nicki $5000, Regina $2000. Robert pulls out his good luck porcelain cat for extra help on a $10,000 bet. Blechman's superstition doesn't seem to have much depth though as his pop-in advises that if the cat doesn't work tonight, it's going in the garbage! Deanna turns up an 8. Wong busts, the Dr stands with 18. Nicki busts her 15, Regina hits 14 to 18, and Robert consults the cat for advice on his hard 14. After listening closely to the cat's advice, Robert reveals that the cat says "Ask for a ten." Deanna delivers just that, busting Robert, so the cat's fate is sealed. Richard and Regina collect on the hand when Deanna busts.

Skip to Hand 12:
Nicki: $88,000
Regina: $113,000
Robert: $97,000
Stanford: $108,500
Richard: $95,000

Matt and Max tell us that Richard suffered a $20K loss during the break, dropping from first to third place. Actually, he's in fourth place. He plans to make up some of that ground on this hand. After Regina leads off with $2000, Robert and Stanford both bet $1000. Richard antes up $10,000 and Nicki sticks with her middle-ground bets, wagering $7000. Dr Richard's pop-in talks about the split-second decisions it takes to work as an ER physician, a characteristic that also applies well to tournament blackjack.

Deanna has a two up. Stanford doubles his own 11, and then looks over at Richard's 12. He tells Richard "You're allowed to double on 12 here", advice which the good doctor actually takes and manages to keep a straight face. He doubles for the least amount possible, $500. All the other players stand stiff, and Deanna draws out to 19. When Richard's double-down card is revealed, it's an 8 making a winning total of 20. Then we get a little smile out of Richard as he looks over for Wong's reaction. Wong's correct basic strategy double on his own hand is of course a loser.

Hand 13: Richard keeps up the shtick this hand. After Robert and Stanford bet $1000, Richard asks Wong what he recommends as a bet for this hand. Wong advises $10,000, so $10,000 it is. Matt points out that if you wanted to ask a guy for advice, Wong would be the guy. Max: "Well yeah, but he's leading him down what path?" Nicki bets $6000 and Regina $2000, despite Robert's advice to her to bet $25,000. Deanna busts and pays the table, including doubles by Nicki and Regina. Wong's zany advice has put Richard right back in the lead.

Hand 14:
Nicki: $93,000
Regina: $115,000
Robert: $96,000
Stanford: $108,500
Richard: $115,500

Stanford leads off with $5000. Richard looks over to the tournament guru and asks "What do you recommend this time, Stanford?" Stanford, chuckling: "$30,000". Robert bursts out laughing while Richard pauses. Robert: "You had him at $10,000, but lost him at $30,000." Not so fast Robert. Richard shrugs and pushes out, yes, $30,000. Both ladies bet $3000 and Robert stakes the minimum.

Deanna turns up a 9, and then busts Stanford's 14. Richard bails on the $30K, surrendering 16v9. Nicki hit to 18, Regina surrendered a 15, and Robert turns 13 into 21. A dealer 19 makes Robert the only winner, and that after Max has just chastised him for not shooting for the lead on this hand where the button just passed him. What goes without note is that it would have taken a max $50,000 bet to take the lead if Richard had collected on his $30K.

Skip to Hand 16: Stanford's pop-in discusses how he studies his own book to prepare for events, because it's tough to remember all the things he writes. Nicki sticks with her $7000 betting pattern, Regina with her $2000, Robert and Stanford $1000 with Dr Richard risking $10K. Deanna pays them all.

Hand 17:
Nicki: $92,000
Regina: $112,500
Robert: $88,750
Stanford: $99,500
Richard: $100,500

Regina bets $2000 from a $12K lead, followed by $1000 / $1000 / $15,000, and another $7000 from Nicki. Max yet again points out that Nicki's bet amount doesn't help her at all. It's late enough in the game that I agree. Bet a little, or bet a lot. After she busts, Regina coaches Deanna through a brutal draw to make 21, retaining her lead which was threatened by Richards big-bet total of 19.

--continued in next post--

 

Show Recap part 2

Hand 18: Regina still leads, and has last bet this hand. Robert and Stanford coast along with $1000 bets, waiting for the button to pass them. Richard tries to make up ground with a $25K bet, which Max notes is a little short. (He's exactly $25K behind Regina.) Nicki bets a typically useless $10K, and Regina can coast with a $1000 bet since no one threatened her lead.

Deanna reveals a four up, and Robert hits and busts his twelve. Matt questions the play, giving Max a chance to talk about how card counters sometimes make plays that aren't basic strategy because they have extra information about the remaining cards in the deck. (If you're curious, the Hi-Lo running count here is -3, on only the second hand after the shuffle.) Wong gets a minimum-wage blackjack, and the rest of the table stands on stiffs. Deanna takes a chunk out Dr Richard's bankroll, with a 4-2-2-T eighteen, getting another smile from Regina. BJ Sweetheart is looking good now.

Skip to Hand 20:
Nicki: $81,000
Regina: $108,500
Robert: $72,250
Stanford: $101,000
Richard: $60,500

Richard bets $30K, Nicki her usual $7000, Regina $1000. Robert makes what he describes as a colorful bet, $36,000. Both Richard and Robert have bet half their bank, but neither has bet enough to take the lead. Stanford bets $10,000, which Max identifies as an excellent bet for first high. Notice that he's covered a possible double-down by Regina as well.

Deanna turns up a face card. Richard's big bet is staked on a 13, but he improves it nicely by drawing a seven. Nicki waves off her 17, and Regina makes the same total in 4 cards, with A-5-A-T. Robert's timing for a big bet is good as he stands with a pat 20. Stanford makes 19. Robert remedies the complaint about his bet size by swinging most of the table to take a $750 lead over Regina. Max reports that he "got that swing he was looking for", but I think that was more a side-effect of his split-bank bet than an intentional part of his plan. Either way, Robert's the new king of the hill. The only other winner? The other split-bank bettor Richard.

Hand 21:
Nicki: $74,000
Regina: $107,500
Robert: $108,250
Stanford: $101,000
Richard: $90,500

Nicki has waited this long with her regimen of $7000 bets, so I can't make any sense of her inept $15,000 bet from the button here. Even a double-down won't put her in contention, yet losing $15,000 here would be a substantial blow. There's a pretty bad risk/reward profile on that bet, and Max comes to the same conclusion. Regina knows that she has a problem with Robert since he has position on her. She bets $3000, a good low-risk shot at passing him, and she doesn't open up a swing threat with a Nicki double. I like it. Robert follows with a textbook high and low, betting $3500 behind her, giving him a $250 low and a $1250 high advantage over Regina. Stanford makes a good $11,000 bet here for the lead, but of course Richard can outbet him and does, with a big $30K bet.

Deanna deals some ugly cards, 18/16/16/18/15, and then flips an Ace to make matters worse. Regina thinks about insurance briefly, but appears to realize that Robert would match her insurance bet behind her so it's a waste. Noone else insures either, and they're all losers when Deanna has it.

Hand 22:
Nicki: $59,000
Regina: $104,500
Robert: $104,750
Stanford: $90,000
Richard: $60,500

Regina on the button, trailing by only $250, bets $2000. Max and I both like a bigger bet here, to make Wong's shot more expensive. The expression on Robert's face tells me that he wishes she had bet more as well. However, he can't afford to pick sides here, and reluctantly matches her $2000. Wong bets $17,000, overlooking a cheap double-cover of $19,000 or even better $21,000 based on the next bet. Richard makes a max-bet, which is now guaranteed first-high. Not bad from a desperate fourth place! Nicki bets only $26,000.

With a Deanna 4 up, Regina stands with 19, the only decent starting hand on the table. The others stand on stiffs except Nicki, who doubles a soft 16 to get a total of $52,000 working. Deanna rakes all the chips in the tray, with a 4-T-7 steamroller. Richard and Nicki are on life support, and Stanford trails the two leaders by over half a max bet.

Hand 23:
Nicki: $7000
Regina: $102,500
Robert: $102,750
Stanford: $73,000
Richard: $10,500

Robert is on the button with a meager $250 lead, and thus chooses to bet the minimum. Stanford pushes out a $12,000 bet, for absolutely no reason I can ascertain. He ignores a golden opportunity to bet for the lead here. With this bet, even if he wins a double while Robert loses a double, he's still behind. It's a pointless risk of chips with no upside. Richard goes all-in, as does Nicki. That's another bad choice, as Nicki should keep a low to perhaps move up a notch in prize money. The litany of awful bets continues as Regina inexplicably bets $1000, matching Robert who has a $250 lead over her! The reason for her error is revealed when she explains that she didn't realize that Robert had bet on the button, and she thought that she was betting ahead of him.

Deanna has yet another Ace up, Robert has hard 14, Stanford has 20, Richard 16, Nicki and Regina both have 11. Regina gets a chance to correct her error right here, but declines insurance after Robert had done the same. A $500 insurance bet would have given her another free shot at the lead, and she could still have doubled for the lead if that didn't work. Instead she's actually rooting for Deanna to have the blackjack, which would kill her last chance at taking the lead on this hand. Her husband John looks a little distraught. I think he realizes what's going on with each of these decisions. No dealer blackjack, so Regina got away with that one.

Robert hits his 14, rather than making a preemptive double ahead of Regina. He draws a 7 for 21. Stanford stands with 20, Richard hits once to 19, as does Nicki. Regina, now aware of the errors, takes a shot to make amends by doubling her eleven. Deanna's hand is A-3-4 for 18. If Regina wins her double-down, she'll take a $750 lead, but it wasn't to be. Her double card was a four. Meanwhile, Nicki and Richard have doubled up and stay alive for another hand at least.

Hand 24:
Nicki: $14,000
Regina: $100,500
Robert: $103,750
Stanford: $85,000
Richard: $21,000

Now Stanford is on the button, and he bets $10,000. He's pretty much guaranteed to be in third place going into the final hand, unless Regina or Robert open a door better left closed. Having last bet is powerful, but he's making it awfully tough on himself. Richard is all-in, and Nicki makes the same mistake for a second straight hand, and this time she's called on it by Max. Regina has her head back in the game now, and makes an excellent bet of $5000 here. That does three things: She passes a push by Robert, she doesn't risk a loss/win swing by Stanford, and she covers a double-win by Stanford with a single win by her. That's about all she can hope to accomplish on this hand. Robert matches her bet, and Max points out that he could have bet $7000 to cover a double by Regina. Still, that's a great bet by Regina, and a good bet by Robert. They've locked Wong into third place unless he doubles and swings them on this hand.

Regina is dealt a blackjack and Deanna turns up a face card. No ace underneath. Stanford stands with 18, Richards stands with 19. When Nicki sees a 13, the lightbulb over her head goes on. She surrenders and tries to move up a spot in the prizes. Better late than never. Regina stands with her blackjack, while Robert stands with his 19. (Regina's chances to take the lead are pretty close to the same whether she stands or doubles.) A dealer 17 keeps the status quo however.

Hand 25:
Nicki: $7000
Regina: $108,000
Robert: $108,750
Stanford: $95,000
Richard: $42,000

Richard is on the button, and for the third straight hand, he's all-in. Nicki holds back $1000 betting $6000. Regina makes a max-bet of $50,000. Robert says: "For the record, that's not what I wanted you to bet." Robert bets $25,000. If this scenario looks familiar, it's because this situation is pretty much identical to the Joe Pane/Hollywood Dave/Kevin Blackwood matchup in week one. Robert can double for the high, or surrender for first low. Wong takes the offered low to complete the setup verbatim. (Wong could have used the same strategy and yet bet up to $11K, which means a blackjack passes a push by either opponent.)

Deanna has a 4 up. Richard and Nicki both have 15. Regina has 18, Robert has 13, and Stanford has a soft 18. Richard plays first, and hits the 15 with a 2. Max explains that he needs to hit to a total better than Regina's for a shot at moving up to her spot in the prizes. Richard does hit again, but busts. Nicki stands. Regina stands. Robert is deciding between surrendering or doubling, and chooses to double for the high over Regina. His card is face down, and we move on to Stanford. Had he bet a little more, he could double his soft 18 for a shot at beating a possible push by either of the two leaders. However he doesn't have that option. He correctly identifies that his decision is irrelevant and stands. It's all up to Deanna and that face-down double card of Robert's.

Deanna's hand is 4-A-4 for 19, immediately killing Regina's chances. Robert's double-down card decides the winner between he and Stanford. It's a 3, and no help for Robert. Stanford takes first place, and Robert heads to the wild-card round for another chance.