What Bet Would You Make Here ?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by Joep, Mar 5, 2007.

  1. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    In one of my early rounds at the Golden Nugget this hand came up and I figured I would throw it out there for you guys to sink your teeth into.

    Min bet 100 Max bet 2,000
    20 hands

    On hand 19 there are only 3 players who are in contention and 2 advance to the next round

    Br 3 has 3000

    I'm tied for the lead with the player to my left we each have 5,700

    Br 3 splits his bank and bets 1500

    I make a decision to let him go because even with his straight win I will still have more than 1/2 of a max bet lead on him going into the last hand and I don't want to go under the player to my left so I just bet 100.He follows with a 100 bet also.

    Now my question is would you have made the same bet as I did on hand 29?

    Please don't let the out come of the hand influence your choice of bets so I will leave a little room between here and what happened,so don't look down any further until you decide on your bet










    OK here is what happened

    Br 3 got a DD and won his hand when the dealer broke to go to 6,000

    we both won our hands to go to 5,800.


    Now the second part of the question is you are now betting first with 5,800 tied with Br 2 and 200 behind the leader who now bets last

    What would you bet if you were in my spot ?

    I hope you enjoy this Golden Nugget Teaser


    Joep
     
  2. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    max

    Nice teaser (as usual) Joep :D !

    I would bet $900 since if you win you'll have a greater than max bet lead over BR3. If you lose you're still ahead. Also BR1b may take the low on you so a win will probably give you solo BR1, and BR1b and BR3 may be more concerned with beating each other than beating you on the final hand.

    As for my final hand bet, how about $200? It ties with BR1 push but will beat a BR1loss. If BR2b then bets $100 for the low you could surrender to tie for the loss if need be and take the win (or force them to double). If BR2b bets more than you BR1 may cover them hig and low opening up a loss push to both BR2s. Since 2 advance the only problem would be a 3 way tie or a tie for 2nd place. (As a matter of interest how would the 3 way tie that be dealt with?)

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  3. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    There is no surrender in this tournament.Its funny because of the UBT Tour and Bet21.com all the new players just assume that all tournaments have the surrender option.The surrender option was offered in only 2 tournaments in Las Vegas prior to the new ones offering it. The Las Vegas Hilton Million dollar Tournament had it and the Frontier Tournament offered it.So No Surrender, so do you want to change your answer now?


    Joep
     
  4. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    White flag

    OK, I'll bet $100. I don't want to give up the low on BR2b and BR1 can match me high and low whatever I do. If BR2b goes high BR1 may match them to get high and low over both of us but make them slightly more vulnerable at the low end if I win.

    What about my suggestion of $900 for part 1?

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  5. Angel

    Angel New Member

    305
     
  6. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    pourquoi

    I'm interested to know why you chose this figure. Care to elucidate?

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  7. DanMayo

    DanMayo New Member

    Cover's DD of BR3

    Reachy,

    This covers the DD of BR3 without costing you too much if you lost.

    Dan
     
  8. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Opening up

    Dan

    I was just hoping Angel would elaborate a bit more. From what I remember of his previous posts they tend to be very short (occasionally just pictures of people laughing:D ) .

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  9. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    Here is what happened

    You can not bet 305 as all bets must be in 100 units anywhere between 100-2000.

    As I tried to explain earlier with me being tied for the lead with 5700 and Br 3 having 3,000 .My thinking here was to bet 100 and not give the low up to the other BR 1 with 5,700 and let Br 3 go on the high side with a DD.If he only wins 1500 and I were to lose my 100 bet I will still have more than a 1/2 of a max bet lead on him going into the last hand.My 5,600 to his 4,500.If he happens to win a DD which before the cards are dealt he is a big underdog to do I still felt safe to make the bet I did. If I bet 400 to get to 6,100 to cover his all in DD and lose I give up the 1/2 max bet lead which is real important betting first on the next hand which is the last hand. I believe that this made my 100 bet the right bet for this hand. Especially since there were only 3 players left and 2 move on.

    Now onto hand 20

    With the bankrolls looking like this now

    Br 3 is now Br 1 with 6,000
    and Br 1Tied are now Br 2 Tied with 5,800

    I never ever like to give anyone a free pass on the last hand and I see this happen a lot.If you make a small bet here you just limit the amount of players you can beat when you bet small from behind.In this situation betting 100 give you maybe a tie for Br2 and a looming playoff for the last spot with no chance of the high.Put Br 1 to the test here, they might just make a mistake with their bet.

    Now if I were to bet 100 yes I could swing Br 1 for a tie for the lead or DD swing him for the lead but these are not good choices.

    Never having played either of these 2 players except for this round and the only "Book " I had on them was that their bets were pretty much all over the place with sometimes no meaning to them what so ever.

    With that mind set I chose to bet 400 hoping to find a middle between both players.

    The player to my immediate left that I was tied with bet 100 and Br 1 bet 500 .So with these bets I had no low and only 2nd high So now no low and 2nd high.So much for finding a middle.Yes I could DD to regain the first high but the low was gone and I was not feeling good

    I was dealt a 20 Br 2 tied was dealt a 17 and Br 1 was dealt a 18 Dealer made an 18 and I advanced to the next round.


    Joep
     
  10. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Interesting...

    I understand your reasoning for only betting $100 on hand #19 to keep over the 1/2 max. bet lead for a possible high/low situation on the last hand, but that is doesn't cover BR3's possible DD.

    With only one player advancing I like your bet here, but with two players advancing I think I prefer a $400 bet here to cover BR3's possible DD and still retain the lead over them with either a my win/ BR3 win, my win/BR3 DD win, my loss/ BR3 loss.

    With only a $100 bet you leave yourself open to fall to BR3 on the last hand and have the button as well.

    Should I get swung I still have a $800 lead over BR3 unless they swing me with a my loss and their DD win, in which case I fall behind by $600 to BR3.

    I would be more concern with having the lead going into the last hand, rather than trying to keep a 1/2 max lead and possibly falling behind to BR3.

    As I said I understand your though process for your $100 bet and it worked out okay, but personally I would have bet $400 on hand #19.

    Now was $400 a better bet? Who's to say, as it ended up both bets would have won, but I would have prefered holding on to BR1 having to bet first on the last hand.

    Again, congratulations on making the finals.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2007
  11. Joep

    Joep Active Member

     
  12. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    I understand the high and low

    I understand what you were shooting for by keeping over a half a max back. I still think I like the $400 bet on #19, because BR3 can DD for the lead on you and should the other BR1 bet $200 or more and they both win, you're now BR3 on the last hand and on the button.

    I am not saying my way is the highest percentage bet, only that is how I would have bet it.

    As it worked out either way would have gotten you into the finals and that is all that matter's.

    Ken, says it best "There is always a better bet"...LOL
     

Share This Page