Just wondered whether anybody had done any sort of statistical analysis of finishing position (i.e 1st , 2nd 3rd,...) versus final hand betting position? For example what %age of tournaments does the person betting last on final hand win, etc. We all know that you have the advantage betting last on the last hand but how much of an advantage is it? I know that it would vary depending on the specific circumstances of the game but with a big enough sample size should make for interesting reading. You could also look at final hand BR versus finishing position and cross reference them so you could see how important BR is relative to betting position in determining finishing position. Cheers Reachy
A quick overview I just quickly looked at the tournament results posted on this site. There are 31 in total and this is what I came up with. I acknowledge that it is a very simplistic overview that only looks at what the BR rank of the winner was going into the last hand (i.e. were they BR1, BR2 etc), what % of the max. bet the nearest BR was if they were BR1 or what the difference was between them and BR1 if they weren't BR1, and what their final betting position was. Some very preliminary figures!!! You will win 6.45% of the time if 5 people act after you You will win 19.35% of the time if 4 people act after you You will win 19.35% of the time if 3 people act after you You will win 22.58% of the time if 2 people act after you You will win 12.9% of the time if 1 people act after you You will win 19.35% of the time if you are last to act You will win 67.74% of the time if you are BR1 going into the last hand You will win 9.68% of the time if you are BR2 going into the last hand You will win 12.9% of the time if you are BR3 going into the last hand You will win 0.03% of the time if you are BR4 going into the last hand You will win 0.06% of the time if you are BR5 going into the last hand If you were BR1 the average % of max bet ahead was 58%. If you weren't BR1 you were on average 81% behind BR1 going into the final hand. So what, if anything does this tell us? It doesn't matter what your last hand betting position is so long as you are BR1 going into that last hand !! Well, maybe not! Cheers Reachy
both position and chip lead are advantages based on my limited experience - both betting position and the chip lead are big advantages - if you can put both together - that is a very big advantage - but you still can't control the other player's bets - so even both together aren't going to lock up a table for you - if I can get to the final hand with either a chip lead or betting position on those players with chip leads over me - then I can find an option that gives me a chance to win - and the better the betting posuition and the bigger the chiplead - the more options you have - would like to see the tournament results cited above broken down by both position and lead simultaneously - and a lot more of them, of course -
No meaning Reachy: As you already noted, your percentages are very preliminary. Not only that but you have some serious flaws in your findings which lead you to a very false conclusion. I'm not going to list everything, just the most important as I see it. 1) You show BR3 winning more often than BR2. Sorry but this makes no sense to me. 2) You show BR4 and BR5 as winning 0.03% and 0.06% respectively. Again, BR4 should be winning more than BR5. Not only that, but a win rate of 0.03% translates to a win rate of 1 out of 3333. I think it just might be a little more than that. 3) Your conclusion "It doesn't matter what your last hand betting position is so long as you are BR1 going into that last hand" is naturally false as I think you already know. Your betting position, irregardless of your bankroll (unless you're locked out), is always very important and will usually dictate the amount of your bet and how you play your cards. In order to have meaningful statistics, you would need to analyze thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of final table results. Even then, it is without meaning because so much depends on the quality of the players. Interesting thought Reachy, but your time time can be spent on more meaningful projects. Don't you agree?
I totally agree The "data" I have used is from this website - the "Play by Play" section. There isn't enough to do a meaningful analysis really, I was sort of hoping that the data was already available somewhere. Just trying to stimulate a discussion really and I thought the use of "dodgy" stats would get people going ! Of course knowing where you are going to bet on the last hand affects your strategy earlier on. If you know you are not going to be last to bet you know you have to shoot for the lead earlier on so you can have that advantage. Cheers Reachy
OK, OK, I was just trying to get a response Toolman - The sample was of 31 tourneys and as I said earlier they are all on this website. I know the sample is way to small to make any conclusions but I thought I would anyway!!! Just wondered whether anybody had looked at this sort of thing before and whether there were any interesting results thrown up. Cheers Reachy Ps. Typo for .03% and .06%. Should have read 3.2% and 6.2%. Oops! I would cut'n'paste my spreadsheet but it doesn't come out well.
Someone needs to talk Micha over at Global Player into giving us these stats for the entire history of Sit & Go tournaments. Now that would be interesting.
