What is the best bet?

This is the last hand with two player remained, surr allowed. 1 advance. I am the last to bet.
min:10
max:500

Dealer's up card: 3 - turn up a 10 and hit a 4 to make 17
$1100 B2 500 A,3 Double 500 -->A,3,3 Push
$1450 Me 500 2,6 Double 500 -->2,6,5 Lose

As you see, even though I was chip leader and last to bet, I lost this hand.
Is there a better bet?

 

340

You could have bet 340 and held back 1110 and take away his push.With betting 340 you would have the push and you could double down to get the high back if he doubled down in front of you.

 

680

Without running any hard and fast numbers, i also like the bet 680. This covers the high even if BR2 doubles and wins his max bet, without forcing what could potentially be an awkward double of your own. It still correlates to give you a win regardless of whether you both win or both lose your bets. Plus, since you are second to act, he can't surrender to lock up a low without you surrendering right behind him to guarentee the win. And of course, your surrender still leaves you in a position to beat his push.

Lotta options here. Of course, none of them would have changed the outcome of the hand; despite all the flexibility you create for yourself, you still would lose the match given the order of cards... damn that old devil Luck. it defeats Skill every time...

-holly d.

 

First off Ken I thing you now have the job of proof reading Dave's book before it comes out .Dave is always breaking the rules trying to bet more than the max bet.But if allowed 660 would be the right bet to cover a DD by Br 2

Now to the facts

I suggested that Br 1 bet 340 and hold back 1110 thus taking away the push from Br 2 .By doing this he positions himself not having to surrender to cover a hand that looks like a push by Br 2 .The second point of the 340 bet is that he can stand on a hand that looks like a push by Br 2 and in doing so buys the dealer bust which will happen a little over 37 % of the time with a 3 up .The question is will you be right about his push more than 37 % of the time

Br 2 really can't get 3 full bets out as he started with 1100 and bet 500 so that cancels his chances of splitting to the 3rd hand. So 2100 is more likely to be his final total if he wins his DD.Which Br 1 can cover with his 340 bet and if Br 2 can get 3 bets out so could Br 1 .

I believe that the Surrender option which is a valuable tool on the last hand does not come into play here as Br 2 who is behind has bet the max.So now matter what you bet if he surrenders you surrender, and giving up the bust to cover the push is in my opinion is not something that I would do

With Br 2 having a 17 Br 1 is a big favorite to win as the dealer will make 18-19-20-21-or bust over 86% of the time which you give up if you surrender to guess on the push.

Im all ears if you have a different twist to this.

 

Very interesting advices! I think that 340 is a slightly better bet since it maximizes my win potential. But in a live game, one doesn't have the luxury of time to do the exact calculation, so as the book advices: "When in doubt, bet the max"; thus I followed this advice. Because there were times when I tried to maximize my win potential by leaving 5 to 10 more than my opponent, but only to find out later that I had miscounted my opponent's chips by $20 to $50.

I have another question, which relates to the scenario I encountered today in a blackjack tournament. I made to the semi final and I was the chip leader to the last hand and I am the second to last to bet.
Rules are: 6 decks game, no surrender allowed, no blackjack insure allowed. 5 min and 500 max. 3 advances.

Dealer's upcard: 10
Dealer's holecard: 3 hits 7 and makes 20

$475 B4 $400 A,9 Stand
$490 B3 $5 10,5 Stand
$600 B2 $125 10 2 hit 2 Stand on 14
$665 Me $250 3,6 hit 4 Stand on 13
$350 B5 $350 10,3 hits a 2, 9 and bust.

I didn't know what went through my mind that I betted 250. Having made such bet, I actually felt remorsed after I was eliminated. In fact, I am still blaming myself for making such a stupid bet. I think I should had betted between 65 and 125 to cover B2. Regardless of how I betted and played this hand, I still think that I am at least 50% favorite to win here, however I think I could have increased my percentage had I betted differently. What would you do in this scenario?

 

Hey, baby, i've always been a fan of making my own rules anyway...

-holly d.

 

Simply hold back the third most chips (in this case I'd hold back third most +1). Now you've got $175 bet and $490 in your stack. There is likely a "better bet", however this does everything you need it to do. And had you made this bet, you would have advanced.

 

Guess right for the win

For question #1.

I would have bet the $340 giving me a $10 cushion in case of a push by BR2,
(which did happen).

However you had a choice of two thing to do for the win after your bet and the cards were dealt.

1) follow BR2 and DD on you 2/6. (ended up losing).

or

2) surrender your 2/6 vs. dealers 3. (would have ended up winning).

If we only knew which was the correct move before hand. Remember the higher percintage play is not always the winning play. Don't keep beating yourself up, it happens to all of us.

DD on a 2/6 vs 3 is tough, I might have surrendered if BR2 had made any other hand higher then 17. 17 was a killer for you, their push was enough to beat you. Any other hand made by the dealer and you win the tournament.

Like I said earlier it is rough, but it happens to all of us sooner or later.
That dreaded last hand doesn't always know the precintages and sometimes the wrong play end's up being the right play (or I should say the winning play). All you can do is hope for better luck next time your in that situation.

We need S. Yama do work the math on that play. What was the percintage to win by DD and what was it if you surrendered vs. 3. I think you played it right, but I am interested in knowing the percintages for each play as well, DD vs. surrender.

Question #2.

I would have bet $150 leaving $515 closing out BR3 (unless they get 5 bets in play and swings you). Remember they are advancing 3 players to the finals. This bet locks out one of the two you have to beat to advance and you have to get sweep by the other three to lose.

I'm sorry but you can beat yourself up on this one, you gave it away, live and learn.

 

$340 vs $435

Question #1

Since I resently lost to a 3-bet. A split with a dd for less on the 2nd hand. I would want to bet at least $380 to cover $2200. Therefore, I like Ken's $435 bet.

tgun

 

Good thinking, but....

How often does three bets come up vs. a push?

In this case keeping the low turned out to be the winning move.

Was $340 the correct bet? Yes, but what if BR2 does gets a split and DD for less and the dealer bust, then your play is right.

That is the beauty of Blackjack tournaments, the right play doesn't always win and the wrong play sometimes does win.

It is a great equalizer, LUCK that is.

 

Can this be done

Kenny here is a thought is there anyway to run a sim. to figure how many times your opponet will push, as opposed to how many times they will have the chance to get 3 bets out ?.That might be one way to figure which is the correct bet.I believe that your bet and my bet are splitting hairs as far as which one is a better bet .But this is what this board is all about.If we are not testing eachother with tournament teasers what else is there to do.

Did I hear someone say bust Rick's chops :laugh:

plus this gives Rick a chance to post something in return how else would he have gotten over 1,261 post

 

Thanks joep

That is a great idea to run sim, if Ken has the time or S. Yama.

That goes along with what I was asking for on my first post for this thread. That is were the precentages for the DD and Surrender after the cards were dealt for question #1.

As far as busting my chops, no problem. I don't listen to you much anyway...LOL.

Except the radio show, were you really do a great job.

 

Number of posts

Now Joe, do you really want to give Tex the opportunity to have more posts than Ken Smith again??!! He is approaching fast!

Chips

 

Rick, thanks, there is someone believing in my skills (lol – inside joke).
The answer to your questions can be rather straightforward, I assumed 6d and s17, and I removed cards seen- which makes a miniscule difference.
If BR1 surrenders he would not advance only if the dealer breaks –17.7%
If BR1 doubles, and we know that BR2 has total of seventeen, then he would not advance only if the dealer ends up with seventeen and BR1 with less than seventeen – 7.1%

Other numbers:
In this case, doubling 6, 2 vs. dealer 3 wins or pushes exactly 50.0% of the time.
If BR2 doubles and gets a card down, and BR1 holding 6, 2 doubles, BR1 would not advance only 21.7% of the time.

People in this thread have put forward some interesting questions. Some of them are quite complicated and multifaceted; I will post more later tonight.

S. Yama

 

Yep, wrong key. It is 37.7% (more exactly 37.68) instead 17.7%

S. Yama

 

Now were getting there

This is what this site is for getting down with some percentages and showing players what is and isn't their best moves in certain situations.

Thanks Ken and Yama for your hard work.

I do like Ken's bet to cover more options, but most of us won't figure that out within 30 seconds. That is why I went with the basic play of taking low and case of BR2 pushing.

By the time I would have came up with $435 they would have had me place my $5 minimum bet in the circle...LOL.

PS.

Yama your an okay player...(wink...LOL)

 

mind gymnastics

Chances for winning “must win a double bet”? Off the top of my head it was just over 33.5% if dealer didn’t have blackjack and player used all modification, and almost 32% for cases including dealer’s bj. I will need some time to find it in my files.
A couple weeks ago when I bought a new computer a disaster has happened. I lost all my documents when tried to transfer them. Eventually I was able to recover most of my docs but now I have them out of folders with no dates, just a huge pile of more than 2,000 Excel and Word. It is going to take me a few months to check what I gathered there in the last ten years.

I was planing to write a post of a different nature, but “immediacy” of responding to the last post took over.
I too, simplified and left some arcane aspects and rare cases out. It is already complicated enough, so to just grasp the gist of what’s at play requires some nice mind gymnastics.

Ken, you overestimated values of the bets. I quote your comments in Italics.

Since we're comparing the value of $435 to $340, we want to only consider how often 435 will succeed where 340 would have failed.
The bet of $435 buys three things:

A) No need to double if BR2 has blackjack.
For effect 435A, that question is "How often will BR2 get blackjack, and BR1 fail to win two bets?"
Therefore, 435A is worth (4.75% X 70%) = 3.33%
You calculated how often BR2 overcomes BR1, not how much better $435 bet is over bet of $340.
You should rather compare chance of BR1 (not having a bj) winning single bet versus must win a double bet, assuming that BR2 takes his blackjack (and BR2’s optimal strategy would vary depending on BR1’s and dealer’s cards).
This approximately will be (41%-28%)*4.75%~=0.6%

B) A blackjack by BR1 advances for sure.
For effect 435B, that question is "How often will BR1 get blackjack, and BR2 succeed in winning two bets?"
With the same numbers, 435B is worth (4.75% X 30%) = 1.43%
I think Ken, that you calculated here how often BR2 could have beaten BR1’s smaller bet bj if BR1 stood on it ...
A blackjack for BR1 advances him for sure except when BR2 wins a 3-bet, and even then winning a double can cover it.
Note that a must win three bets is successful about 4% of the time, mostly when dealer busts.
So we will have 4.75%*96%~=4.56%
This should be compared to BR1 having a bj with bet of $340.
BR1 advances when BR2 loses his hand, plus when BR2 pushes his double to BR1 at least pushing, and BR2 winning a doubled bet and then BR1 also winning a doubled bet, and all cases when the dealer has a bj, too.
BR2 will gain much less than in 10% of the situations, so BR1 advances about 4.4% of the time.
The gain in situation B betting $435 compared to $340 is about 0.2%.

C) A double win by BR1 covers a three-bet all-in win by BR2.
Chance of winning a three-bet will rarely be a better option for BR2 compared to chance for a swing or gain over BR1. Though it is easily covered by BR1 if he doesn’t bust his must win double bet. Even if BR2 plays strictly must win 3-bet strategy, BR1 almost always covers it if he doesn’t bust his any-three-card double (28.2%).
The gain of betting $435 to cover BR2 winning a three-bet should be less than 0.25%.

Altogether we have about 1.0% benefits for the bet of $435 over the bet of $340.

Benefits of $340 bet? It is really a nasty one to calculate; though the number is small.
Any takers?

S. Yama