Ok, here's a situation that some of you may have already read about but I would like more opinions, especially from the calculating "numbers" guys/gals here: Final Hand of a Final Table 4 players Listed in their betting order BR1 239,000 uses secret bet BR3 219,500 uses secret bet BR4 102,500 bets 100,000 BR2 220,500 has secret bet available Now some background... BR3 had only 70,000 on hand 26 and has made many all-in bets and gotten BJ BR2 had over 340,000 on hand 25 and has lost hands 25-29 but before that time was betting BIG most hands BR1 had been playing a tight game What would YOU bet as BR2 and why?
Think is also fair to show pay out structure, As with 1st place more then double 2nd and quadruple 4th you have to be thinking of 1st only 1st Place: - $69,280 2nd Place: - $29,640 3rd Place: - $22,280 4th Place: - $14,820
Fred should have also stated this is with UBT final table Rules 1k min 100k max, surrender allowed and secret Bet can be 0
It's Pretty Crowded In There In a crowd like that it will come down to who gets the best cards. Just because BR1 has been playing a tight game, doesn't mean he won't bet the max on this hand. He probably will, especially if he's been playing a conservative game like most of the good players usually do. If BR1 has got his thinking cap on he could bet 91K, to cover the double/double and possibly thwart yours and BR3's efforts to get the low. You could try to take the low and bet 60-62K in secret, with the option to double down if BR1 or BR3 stands on a strong hand. But this won't work if BR1 bet 91K and surrendered. The above bet of 60-62K is too iffy for me. Bet 100K and double aggressively if BR1 stands on a strong hand. Double almost anything if BR3 has soft doubled. May the best cards win...
Rusty I'll ease myself back into TBJ with this teaser. Since you say BR3 has been going all-in to get to his position and bearing in mind the payout structure (fairly top heavy) I'm going to guess that he is going to bet $100K. We know that BR4 is also betting $100K so we can bet $100K to correlate with those 2. Also, knowing that BR1 has been more measured in his approach there is a chance that he may have bet smallish with some surrender back options, but I think that is unlikely. If he wants to cover all-in doubles he needs to bet reasonably big himself and when there are several players that can take the win and such a top heavy bias I would say he is going to go for the win by taking the high. So in this situation I would say bet the max and cross your fingers. Cheers EDIT: Nice to see that Monkey agrees with my thinking Reachy
what to do? My quick response is to make a secret bet of $100,000. Then see what happens, might have to dd for all or less or sur. etc. tgun
I did not want to give my answer in case i influence others but as you ask, Will copy what i put on LVA in answer to what Scott Bet, I would bet $100k(if i was BR2) but may be more because I played Monica(BR3) In 2 previous rounds so would guess that she would bet Max, there is only 5% difference between each of the 2nd,3rd,4th places but more then double between 2nd and 1st and triple between 3rd and 1st, So the whole theory of locking out 4th but locking himself more or less from 1st make a mega difference. Most of us have played Monica online, Or seen her shows or both, I had also played her on 2 rounds prior to the final table (We both went through obviously in both cases) and can safely say Monica would almost always bet max in these circumstances. If you think of any final hand with 3/4 or more players left almost every big tournament that myself or others have won internet or Land there will usually be 1 player at least that makes that hand, the winnner is usualy the one that gets a sucessful Max DD out on last hand. Thus BR2 can keep hi and low on her by betting Max, So BR1 should be thinking of being able to cover a Max DD by BR2 So BR1's best bet would be 92k up, BR4 obviously has to go 100k and pray for a BJ, If i was BR2 and this was down to 2 players zero on this would be percentage wise a good bet but with 4 i would be safer to assume either BR1 or BR3 are going to make a hand so I would bet Max. This may have translated a bit weird as have removed players names which where on my post in LVA and but in BR* instead
1000 and surrender everything except a BJ to beat BR4, and a loss/push by BR3, and maybe a loss/surr by BR1.
Dodgy maths I've done some quick, approximate maths on this problem to look at the differences between the max bet and min bet approaches to this situation. My conclusions are that the min bet approach, as advocated by Swog, has the highest EV. My rough calculations (I may be quite far off in these figures as I haven't spent too much time on them) suggest that with a min bet approach these are your chances for the related prizes: 1st - 32% 2nd - 28% 3rd - 36% 4th - 4% EV=$39,082 For a max bet approach the figures are: 1st - 22% 2nd - 32% 3rd - 29% 4th - 17% EV=$33,601 Before I go on, my assumptions are that BR1 bets to cover DD high over BR2, BR3 has bet the max, and because of the time constraints I haven't really looked at complicated plays (forced doubles, surrenders, etc). Please feel free to correct me, refine the numbers, point at me and laugh, whatever, I'm just hoping to stimulate a little bit more discussion on this and maybe get some input from the big guns. You are 50% more likely to take 1st with a min bet mainly because it's contrarian. Betting the max will simply correlate with BR1 and reduce your chances of overtaking them accordingly. You are also much more likely to bust out and come last with a big bet. Bet the minimum and your only chance of of coming last is if BR4 gets a BJ. Put simply, a max bet gives you 2nd high, 2nd low. A min bet gives you 3rd high, 1st low. So, what do you think? Am I talking out of my fundament? Cheers Reachy
Those seem correct, Reachy. Of course, this assumes that BR1 bets high. If BR1 bets low, the EV's change dramatically. It seems that the best approach (from a technical perspective) would be to calculate EV's for each of the 4 major combinations (BR1 high or low, BR3 high or low), than assign subjective probabilites of each bet by their opponents. For example, it might be that the min bet is right, but only if BR1 goes high 80% of the time or more.
time Very true Toonces and when I get the time I hope to put together a more comprehensive reply. God knows when that'll be though so if anybody else wants to have a stab don't wait for me. Cheers Reachy
Therein lies the rub. As was the case with this hand BR1, BR2 & BR3 all had secret bets. So how do you determine BR1 & BR3's bet? Psychology and learned behaviour. That is where those with poker skills fare better than those without. All within the 2 minute context of this situation right? No BR3 actually had approximately 10 minutes given the fact that BR1 & BR3 used the secret bet booth. Shame on BR2 for not completing those calculations fast enough!
BTW, I will x-post my comments from the LVA boards BR1 = me BR2 = Fred BR3 = Monica BR4 = Adrian ----------- The point is that it is now essentially a modified version of Roshambo: If Fred thinks I'm going high, he should go low regardless of Monica. If Fred thinks I'm going low, he should go high regardless of Monica. If Monica thinks Fred and I are going high, she should go low, otherwise she should go high. If I think both Fred and Monica are going high, I should go high. If I think both Fred and Monica are going low, I should go low. If I think Fred and Monica are doing one of each, I should go low (but only about a 10% better chance) Adrian must go high and hope for a BJ and swing, or a 4-way swing, with everyone going high. In addition, there are some caviats. 1. Anyone who goes low nearly locks out Adrian and is guaranteed an additional 5% of the prize pool. 2. Scott is first to act. if he goes high and matches Fred or Monica, he still loses on a swing or from a double down behind. 3. High bets give Fred and Monica more options than low bets. Now, if this round had not secret bets remaining, I think our best bets are for Scott and Monica to go high, and Fred to go low. This is because if Scott goes low, than Monica and Fred go high, but if Scott goes high, Monica can't afford to go low, or Fred will match her. But this is secret bets. So, I (Scott) took a percentage guess that 1 will go high and 1 will go low, and bet $18,000, locking out Adrian. Had I known their bets, this is my best chance to win. Monica guessed high, and had she known our bets, this is her best chance to win. Fred guessed low (also locking out Adrian), but had he known our bets, he would have bet high, instead. Now Anthony and Joe both told me that they would have bet high in my position. Much of that is because they know Monica's style and thought it unlikely that she would ever choose to bet small here. And I admit, that I didn't watch past episodes of UBT enough to get a feel for other TV players' tendencies, so I didn't know this. But keep in mind that if Fred thinks that I think like Anthony or Joe, then he thinks I'm going high and that Monica is going high. Then, his $0 bet is genius. The point is that when everyone has secret bets, there can't really be a single best bet, since you can't risk being predictable. So, I think everyone made reasonable bets, but some were luckier than others.
Thanks everyone for the replies. Now here's a second part of this: The cards are out as follows: BR1 secret bet and gets BJ does a secret action BR3 secret bet and gets soft 14 and does a secret action BRL 100,000 bet and gets hard 20 stands BR2 secret bets (100,000) and gets 15. Dealer has a 4 up Now you don't know WHAT BR1 has bet or done due to secret bets and secret actions You believe that BR3 has secret bet 100,000 and on the secret action DD for a total bet of 200,000 You KNOW about BRL with his 20 - he stays Now as BR2 with a secret bet of 100,000 a 15 and the dealer having a 4 up. Do you DD to correlate to BR3 and risk busting and going into 4th? Or do you stand on the hand?
