Do you hit, stand, DD, or surrender on hard 16 vs. dealers 7? Well, what do you do? All four could be the best play depending on the situation. That is the problem with some of the questions players ask. Each situation is differant. Is it tournament play or regular blackjack? Is it last hand? Are you in the lead? Are you on the puck or behind it? Can you surrender? What does the other players have and can they catch you, or are you already beat without an over the max bet? What is the current card situation (count)? Do two advance or only one? Will a surrender advance me? Is a DD the only chance I have? Is it in the finals? Do you try to win and risk falling to 5th place? As far as the correct play, who knows. All we can try to do it give you the highest perentage plays for each situation. If you only want the correct play to then I'll tell you after each hand what you should have done...lol. That is the only way anyone will can tell you 100% what the correct play should have been. The old saying woulda, coulda, shoulda is perfect for blackjack. Those of you that saw the MDII semifinals saw Ken (Smith) play the highest percentages in his round. Playing from behind he had a bust hand late in the round (I believe 16) where he didn't hit and the next card was a four. Was it the wrong play? Now we can look back and say yes after seeing the card, but at the time Ken played the highest perentage play by not hitting and taking away the bust possiblity and giving him some hope to make his charge. I have say several times "I would rather win playing wrong then lose playing right." Winning is the only thing anyone really cares about. Who is going to remember the great play someone made several years back only to come in 5th place, NO ONE! Now had they won the tournament they would have become an instant pro player...lol. Remember this as well, just because a situation comes up again in a tournament doesn't mean the results will be the same this time around. Play your hand based on the current situation. Most players you read or hear about making several final table each year play in lots of tournaments and play the highest percentages each time out to help them make those finals, (let's say 1 finals for every 10 tournaments). Now less say you only get to play a couple of tournaments per year, you only have a limited shot at making the finals, (1 of 2.) Your best shot maybe start off strong, who knows? All I am saying is play your game the way your comfortable and if you want help all of us here will be glad to help. As far as odds, you can call me "Hans Solo". Don't tell me the odds, don't ever tell me the odds"...LOL.
One in Ten ? TXTOURPLAYER, You bring up a good point, What would be considered a good stat for final table. If you are reaching the final table on average 1 in 10, would that be right up there with the best? How would Ken Smith, or Hollywood Dave, or the other great players rate? Thanks, slim
Stats My own experience with very precise data dating back to 1991 indicates that 1 final per 10 or 11 tournaments makes a lot of sense for a seasoned tournament player. One first place out of 4 finals is also a reasonable expectation. So, you need some 40 tournaments for a first place finish. These results of attaining a final are much better that for the casual tournament player whose expectations are more in line with "pure luck" distribution based on number of participants i.e. 1 of 100 chances per tournament (for tournaments of 100 players) divided by number of seats in the final. And once they reach the final table, their chances with be 1 of 7. This also explain that it makes much more sense to "partner" with a player of equal skills and to play tournaments with strong 2nd, 3rd, 4rth prizes. This reduces the expectations to 1 final per 5 or 6 tournaments and brings in more money on a regular basis. The guys we see winning often probably play at least 30 to 40 tournaments per year and most are "partnered". Nothing wrong with that.
Average 1 out of 10. I would think 1 out of 10 finals is a average most players could live with, and if the finals ends with a win they really would enjoy it. I would say I make 1 out of 10 "Average." I am not saying I'll make one final every ten tournaments. I believe this is a better then average stat that most players would agree with. Also were talking all tournaments, not just major ones (there are mini's included as well.) Currently I have only made one final in my last 16 tournaments and that was earlier this month at Fiesta (Henderson) weekly mini. We did a split with 1st getting $500 and the other 6 getting $285 each (I got $285...lol.) If you go back and read some earlier post you can see where Ken and I were both kidding about being in a semifinals slump so at least I broke that...lol. Tournaments are very streaky things, you can go for a long time with no luck then on one trip make 4 finals (as I did couple of years ago 4 out of 6.) I also currently have a 7 year winning streak, at least one win every year (still need one for 2004 though.) My last win was back to back at Hollywood mini's $2,450 each last year. I am not a big tournament player, I only play around 6 majors per year, (with a win or high finish maybe 2-3 more.) With only one casino in Texas (all most 9 hours away) the closest casino is Shreveport/Bossier City LA (3 hours away) so I don't get to play one or more tournaments each week like the players who live close to casinos. I beieve most players can relate to this problem. Also like most I don't make my living from playing tournaments so taking off cost not only entries and expences, but lost wages as well. Tournaments are fun and can be profitable with any luck, but you have to look at it just that way if you want any type of a normal life. If I had to choose between playing tournaments (or even going to a casino again) or my wife and family it is no contest, my wife would win hands down.
Mississippi VS. Hollywood No disrespect to Hollywood Dave but i dont think you can put Hollywood Dave And Kenny Smith in the same sentence and refer to them as great players.Hollywood Dave might make for great TV but my money is on Kenny for playing in a Tournament.As James Brown is the Godfather of soul, Kenny is the Godfather of BJ Tournaments.And being from N.Y. and Italian i know what a GODFATHER looks like......
