This is my situation at a semifinal table at the Gold Strike tournament last week. It started with six people at the table, all except I and one other had been eliminated by hand 23 of 25. Prior to the hand 23 countdown. I had a lead of $1025. By a swing, I gained another $1000 lead going into hand 25 where I was on the button. My question is, with my lead of $2025, on the button, final hand, what is the proper bet? Wong says that it should be either a maximum of $5,000 or $215. I solicit your opinions.
$215? I don't get it. Did you mean $2015? or $2020? I'll assume surrender is not available, but what is the max bet? $5000?
and... What were the respective BRs? What's the most money that BR2 could have realistically got in action? Cheers Reachy
Quick answer I'd bet 4440. That way you cover an all-in win by BR2 and can surrender back to the low if need be. You don't have enough of a lead to cover a max bet BJ from BR2 so regardless you are going to have to double if that happens. Cheers Reachy
Betting around $2000 keeps the low with a double for the high. I like that here. If you're confident that your opponent will bet big regardless, go ahead and bet nearly $4000 instead.
A couple of questions These sorts of scenarios are causing me all sorts of vexation at present. Whenever I go low the dealer busts; whenever I go high the dealer beats me :flame: Anyway, bare with me here, this is late night stream-of-consciousness babble, but I'd like to run a few things by.... With my bet, which is calculated to be surrenderable to the low, the Wong odds are 50% (before double or surrender). With Ken's bet the WO are 56%. So far, so good. Other than those differences in probability the other differences are the actions that BR1 may or may not take to save/catch-up with BR2. In the case of my bet the decision is do you surrender or not, in Ken's case it's when do you double. What my question is is which is the easiest or most-likely-to-be-successful decision to be made here? Would you rather have to decide when to surrender or when to DD? Some voodoo maths: My bet; when do you surrender? When you are going to lose maybe. If you could predict with 100% accuracy when that would be then you would win 0.48 x 0.56 = .2688 PLUS 0.5 = 0.7688. If you were 50% accurate it would go to .6344. Ken's bet; when do you double? When BR2 is going to win. Chances of success = .44 x .31 = .1365 PLUS .56 = .6964. If you were 50% accurate in predicting a BR2 win then the success rate goes down to .6282. On this somewhat dodgy rationale my bet is better than Ken's . Of course the most likely scenario is that I'm talking pig swill! I'm happy for all and sundry to dismantle this post and show me the error of my ways. Good night all. My bet21.com TV freeroll lasted all of 16 hands. The dealer kept busting or givjgn me BJs when I had small bets and beating me when I got big bets out. Cow! Cheers Reachy PS. I'm assuming that with my bet BR2 opts to take the low and with Ken's bet they opt to take the high.
Reachy, the scenario presented doesn't allow surrender. If surrender had been allowed, I prefer the larger bet as you describe.
It it were me, I would bet away my lead, which is 2225. Since there are only 2 players left and one advances, you would be a favorite here according to Wong if you take the low. Assuming the cards are dealt face up, you might need to double to regain the high if your oponent, assuming with a max bet, shows a strong hands vs a dealer's upcard. If cards are dealt face down, just play according to basic strategy, no fancy play here because there is no need to risk your favorite position here without knowing your opponent's hand. A lot of times on final hands, when cards are dealt face down, you can tell how strong your oponent's hand is based on his expression or body language.
Humbled and chastened Ken My apologies. A combination of sleep deprivation (it was 3am as I had just floundered in an ill-fated attempt to win my 15 minutes at Barona) and myopia resulted in my complete ignorance of the "No surrender" rule. The most stupid thing about it is that I read it several times! It just didn't connect with my mind. Can I ask though whether there is any rational basis for the maths/logic that I came up with to support my argument? Do we know, for example, what the odds are that in any given hand a player is going to have to double or surrender to take the lead? We know that the chances of success for a forced double down are about 31% but do we know how often we are likely to need to do this? Cheers Reachy
