What should "Evil Joe" bet?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by KenSmith, Nov 24, 2004.

  1. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Time for a tournament puzzler, this time with a unique twist:

    The Story, set in the not-too-distant future: :D

    JoeP has finally gone off the deep end. After a couple of dozen tournament rounds playing next to Hollywood Dave, the non-stop trash-talking of Dave has finally pushed Joe over the edge. He's become delusional, and hears voices in his head. Actually, just two voices. Everytime he sits at the table, the voices argue so much that he can't hear himself think. Finally, he comes up with a solution to bring peace to his troubled mind.

    He agrees to let one of the voices decide how to bet, and the other voice decide how to play the hand. But, there's a problem. Unbeknownst to Joe, one voice is "Evil Joe" who intentionally sabotages Joe's efforts, while the other voice is "Good Joe", who plays to win. Of course, Joe was a highly skilled player before his breakdown, so it's no surprise that both Evil Joe and Good Joe are very good at what they do.

    In their latest event, Evil Joe is in charge of the bets, and Good Joe plays the hands. Surprisingly, despite all the sabotage efforts of Evil Joe, Good Joe has managed to get JoeP to the final table, where we're on the last hand. "Team Joe" is in third place, but has final bet.

    Betting limits are $5 to $500 in increments of $5. Surrender is allowed. BJ pays 3:2. Prize money is $10K / $5K / $2K /$1K / $500.

    Seat 1 (button): Bankroll $750, bets $500.
    Seat 2: Bankroll $650, bets $395.
    Seat 3: Bankroll $100, bets $100.
    Seat 4: Bankroll $300, bets $90.
    Seat 5 (JoeP): Bankroll $600, bets ???

    The question: What should Evil Joe bet? Remember, in this challenge, we're looking for the worst possible bet.
     
  2. cmonseven

    cmonseven New Member

    Oh No!

    No wonder! It runs in the family. I have those voices too. :( My worst guess is he would bet $500 because if the leader wins, he still loses and if he loses, he is in 4th, possibly 5th place depending on what happens with BR 3. He could double for less, but won't help a great deal- still won't put him in first if BR 1 wins. So I think what he should do is take a few lessons from Hollywood Dave, start talking smack and distract the others while they are trying to decide what to do with their cards.Perhaps he should show some cleavage, that would really distract them!:D

    Remember, I am a rookie so I am sure my answer is totally wrong.:rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2004
  3. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    This is dfferant

    I guess $400 would be a pretty bad play.

    Joe would stay at 3rd if all won and fall to 4th if all lost and not be able to split if needed.

    After my DD screw up you would think I could figuire out a bad play...LOL.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2004
  4. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    Evil Joe has my hands tied

    This is good Joe, Evil Joe has my hands tied up I'm typing with my nose.Hollywood is screaming in my ear HELP ME.Griifin agents are at my door.What should I do?
     
  5. cmonseven

    cmonseven New Member

    Hhhmmmm

    Hands tied behind your back....quick have Hollywood call you up a girl!
     
  6. Hollywood

    Hollywood New Member

    You guys have way too much time on your hands! But being the narcissist actor that i am, of course i'm flattered. And if you must know, the answer is any bet between 395-440 (Rick's 400 bet would be perfect). That way he is BR4 if all hands lose, and only BR3 if all hands win. And of course in reality, Hollywood Dave would be siding with Bad Joe at the table & helping him come to that very specific conclusion, so we could both work together to bring the PAIN to Joe P!

    hold on, someone's at my door -- who is it? .......hold on, i'm coming... oh hey, joe, what's up? didn't know you were in LA this week. what's that? you need a place to hide out from the Stardust casino execs? sure, no problem, man. maybe i can teach you a few things about tournament play while you're here, too! it'll be great! just like -- ulp -- hey! i can't breathe, joe! hey! joe !! stop it, man! *gasp* jooooooooooooeeeeeeeeeeeee........$%&!@#!$$%^!
     
  7. Prospect

    Prospect Member

    Perfect "Bad" Bet

    405-440

    In case that JoeP loses and seat 3 wins. With 400 bet and L-W, JoeP would push. With 395 bet and L-W, JoeP would win.
     
  8. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    The single bet I think is the answer

    Prospect's valid complaints about bets of 395 and 400 involve swings with BR5, in case you didn't catch that.

    We're definitely zeroing in on the optimal "Evil Joe" bet. The new range of 405-440 contains some pretty bad bets. Still, we can narrow the range further I think:

    440 & 435: These aren't bad enough, because Joe's blackjack passes BR1's win. (1252.5 vs 1250)

    430: This is still not optimal, because if Joe and BR2 both get a blackjack, Joe still wins. (1245 vs 1242.5)

    405, 410, 415: Each of these lets Joe surrender and beat a win by seat 4. No good.

    420: Same complaint as the last three, but now Joe's surrender gets a tie with seat 4's win.

    So, my choice for the worst possible bet in this seat is...
    $425: An incredibly bad bet.

    I hope you had fun with this one.
     
  9. Joep

    Joep Active Member

    Hollywood's House

    Im here at Hollywoods house he wont wake up.Never seen Hollywood with nothing to say.I hope my hands around his neck and squezzing tight had nothing to do with this.While Im here does any one want a copy of Acting For Dummies he seem to have a few of them on his bookshelves.There are some pictires of him in drag also,hope that was for a role he audition for............
     

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