Local Tournament. $25 entry. House BJ rules except BJ plays 2-1. Min bet $5, no max bet. 20 hands. No surrender. No secret bets. Final table is 7 but only 6 get paid. Last hand tends to be people going almost all in. Preserve a little bit to avoid 7th place if possible. Payouts are $634.80, $396.75, $238.05, $158.70, $111.09, $47.61. Final table, final hand still 7 people left. Here are the BRs in betting and action order. BR7 - $895, Bet $895 - He bet $5 for 19 hands and then all in on the last hand. BR5 - $1550, Bet $550 - Not sure why she only bet $550 BR1(Me) - $2900 BR2 - $2140 - Never played against him, not sure what he's likely to do. BR3 - $1950 - Likely to go almost all in on the last hand. BR4 - $1650 - Likely to go almost all in on the last hand. BR6 - $1500 - Likely to go almost all in on the last hand. Before I reveal what I did and how it ended up, I'd like to see some discussion on what would be the best bet.
what to bet well if u bet 1400 u got the high, hoping dealer busts and you win if you bet 700 you are still looking good, if you need you can double down or split to get another 700 out there to reclaim the high, i would have bet 700 :joker:
1450 I would bet 1450. Covers an all in by BR2, plus a BJ by BR4 and 6. Makes for an easy double or split if necessary, and I think it covers as many bets as possible, while retaining the low on a couple of the bets.
If BR4 goes all in and gets a BJ they would have $4950. That would require me to have bet $2100 to cover that. As it was I bet $1400 which gave me the high and low on everyone assuming they went all in. BR2 bet $1050, BR3 and BR6 went all in while BR4 bet $1600. BR5 was dealt 18, I had a 9 and BR2 had a 9. The others had 13-16. The dealer had a 2 up. BR5 stayed on her 18. I hit and got a 7 for 16. BR2 doubled for $1050 and got a 4 for 13. Dealer turned over a 7 for 9. Drew a 9 for 18. That gave BR5 the victory with $1550 over my $1500.
Another week same rules as above. This is the quarterfinal round where 2 advance. BR2 - About $3300 BR, Bet around $1000. BR4 - $500 BR, Bet $500 BR3 - $2300 BR, Bet $1300 BR1(Me) - $3750 BR, Bet ? What should I have bet?
Then my bet would be $445. After thinking about it a little more, in the original scenario of BR3 betting $1300, a bet of $145 (instead of the $5 I originally posted) would give some additional options if BR3 screwed up and doubled for less - a lot less.
How did you decide on $445. I'm not sure of the advantage with that. Now for the real story. With BR3 having $1300 I bet $25 since I didn't have any $5 chips and didn't want to hassle changing it. Imagine my horror when the dealer broke down the bet to pay it and she actually had $1400 bet. I ended up losing $3775 to $3800. I apparently miscounted the blacks she bet and thought she had $1300. Here is my thinking after I realized my mistake. BR2 could get to $4300 with a single bet win or $5300 with a BJ or Double. BR3 could get to $3800 with a single bet win, $5200 with a BJ or $5600 with a Double. With a bet of $1555 I could cover BR2, and a bet of $1855 to cover both of them. $55 is enough to cover a single bet win by BR3 and allow me to advance. When you get right down to it with a bet of $55 I'm out if I'm on the losing end of a swing so anything up to $2745 covers everything that could happen with no more risk than $55. Is my thinking wrong?
A $2745 bet by BR1 gives up 1st low to BR2. Also, a loss by BR1 would allow BR3 to advance with a push. There may be other disadvantages that I don't see right now. This is a 3 way race since BR4 is out barring a major screw up by one of the other players. You being BR1 must take the low on both BR2 & BR3 since all you need to do is finish ahead of either one of them. It would also be desirable to make the largest bet possible (while maintaining 1st low) to give yourself more options if circumstances demand. So the most you can bet while maintaining the low on both and advancing if either of them push is $445: BR1 bankroll ................................ 3,750 LESS BR2's Bankroll before his bet .. -3,300 LESS $5 (allow for a BR2 push) ... ... .... -5 Amount of bet for BR1 .......................445 The only possible ways for BR1 to not advance with a $455 bet: 1) Both BR2 and BR3 get a swing on BR1. 2) Both BR2 and BR3 win while BR1 pushes. 3) Both BR2 and BR3 win a double. Note that both BR2 and BR3 must win in order to have chance to eliminate BR1 with his $445 bet. And even if this does happen, BR1 has options with a $445 bet unless both BR2 and BR3 win a double bet. Those options do not exist with a $55 bet. Now back to what actually happened: It's easy to miscount chips so don't let that get you down. I do it all the time so I usually allow for a margin of error if possible. So did BR2 also win his hand to stop you from advancing?
How About 1,400? With a bet of 1,400 you have both BR2 and BR3 correlated. You have BR3's double down covered. Don't hit any stiff hands. The only way for you to lose is if BR3 gets a lose-win swing on you AND BR2 gets a lose-win, lose-push, or push-win swing on you, all this while the dealer made a hand. Your odds of advancing should be at least 90%.
Exactly my thoughts on this one, although any bet down to 1155 would accomplish the same goals. I do like the lower end of this range, though, as it wouldn't expose you to giving up the low to BR2 if you get into a multiple split/DD situation with BR2.
Ok, now I understand the $445. I was bothered quite a bit by the miscount Wednesday night. In fact it was kind of hard to sleep thinking about it. Now I'm ok with it and hopefully will learn from it. Yes BR2 won his hand also. Actually everyone had between 13 & 16 with a dealer 4 up. Dealer ended up busting.
Add to the list against BR3 a push-win. Now let's make a side by side comparison of a $1,400 bet and a $445 bet. $1,400 bet: BR1 will not advance if BR3 gets a Lose-Win or Push-Win AND BR2 gets a Lose-Win or Lose-Push or Push-Win. $445 bet: BR1 will not advance if BR3 gets a Lose-Win or Push-Win AND BR2 gets a Lose-Win ..................or Push-Win. So with a $1,400 bet the door is a little more open for defeat because BR2 has the additional Lose(BR1)-Push(BR2) possibility to defeat BR1 which does not exist with a $445 bet. In exchange for this, BR1 (with a $1,400 bet) gains the option to challenge a DD by BR3. I don't think the trade off is good for BR1. I'll stick with my $445 bet which forces both BR2 and BR3 to win - if either loses or either pushes then BR1 advances.
Comparison BR3's bet of 1300 wasn't enough to pass BR1's push. So the push-win isn't a factor unless BR3 doubles down and beats BR1's push. You're right about the lose-push against BR2, though. It's a tradeoff. 1,400 covers BR2's and BR3's double downs, in exchange for giving up the lose-push against BR2 that you would get with the bet of 445. The main thing with the bet of 1,400 or a little less is not to bust your hand. We'd all love to be facing this dilemma, wouldn't we?
