I am fairly new to this tournament BJ stuff. I know I have a lot to learn. I was in a live tournament at a local casino and was faced with the following: Payout for final table, 1st $4500, 2nd $2500, 3rd $1500. Last hand of final table 4 players remain, but 4th was out of contention. BR3 was first to act with 1900, I was BR2 and second to act with 4500, BR1 was third to act with 5000. No surrender allowed, BJs pay 2 to 1. br3 bet 800 to stay ahead of br4. I was next to act and told I had 10 seconds to make up my mind. How much should I bet? min 200, max 1000. Up to this point I had been betting 1000 for the last 4 hands in an attempt to catch br1 and be chip leader on the last hand, especially given my bad position on the last hand. As I was doing this br1 was betting 500 every hand and letting me slowly catch up. Players did not seem to be highly experienced tournament players for whatever its worth in making my decision. Given not very much time to act I ended up betting 1000. br1 then bet 600. The hands we received were, br3 soft 13, me hard 14, br1 hard 16, dealer 5. br3 doubled and received a 9 for a hard 12. What should my action be? I would like to see some responses before I say what I did which in retrospect was a slight error I think. D.S.
I would probably double down I played in that tournament also but got knocked in 2nd round. Go for the double, if everything goes wrong you drop from 2nd 2500 to 3rd 1500 a loss of 1000. If your double holds up you gain 2000. For everything to go wrong you have to bust on your double and the dealer has also to bust. That's a (6/13)*.42 = 19% chance of that happening. If the dealer doesn't bust you still have 2nd. If you make a stiff on the double down and the dealer busts you win 1st. If you make a stiff and the dealer gets a 17 or higher you still have 2nd. If you make a good total and the dealer only gets 17 you win. I don't have anything that computes percentages when 3 players are involved. To me it looks like you might as well try for 1st. When in doubt put it out. ......................BlueLight
I'd double too I would have gone with a bet just under 900. That gives you the opportunity to DD and lose and still cover a straight up win by BR3 (doesn't cover a BJ, but it's not bad). And if you end up making a hand on your DD and not busting out, and BR1 was still in for just $600, a DD by him wouldn't cover you so he'd need to have the dealer make a hand over you to pull it out. That's what I'd do after looking at this for a little while, but knowing how that tournament rushes you into making a bet, doing any type of calculations are a pain.
What I actually did was . . . . . . double for less. After reevaluating the chip counts this was a mistake. The reason I did it was I was hoping I didn't count br3s chips correctly. Before the hand I wasn't that concerned with br3 thinking he was essentially out of it. But now after he doubled I realized that if I double and lose and the dealer busts I was pretty sure I would fall to third. So I doubled for 200 hoping i miscounted br3s chips. The problem with this is I opened the door for br1 to double his hard 16 and if he doesn't bust he wins. i should have just doubled for 1000 at this point and taken the high for first. I also concluded afterwards tha the best initial bet for me would have been 800 for the reasons Ace pointed out. But as it turned out, if I would have bet 800 I believe br1 would have bet 1000 so I would have doubled for 800 to try to convince br1 to double. Even though at that point he probably should stand if i didn't get a good pat hand on my double. Since I busted I would have ended up third anyway. D.S.
Now that I think of it . . . if I would have doubled for 1000 br1 might realize it would do him no good to double. So my new question is, is it more to my advantage to try to get him to double his hard 16 to retake the high and low positions, or double for 1000 and he stands and only wins if the dealer beats both of us? D.S.
990 Correct me if I'm wrong. BR3 with 1900 betting 800 can only make a max of 3500 with either a BJ or successfull DD. BR2 (you) on 4500 could therefore lock up 2nd place with a bet of 990 (or whatever 1000 - min. bet increment is). You also have a chance at BR1. As to whether you should DD or not after the cards have been dealt and BR3 has already DD, I would stand. You and BR3 are both on a stiff and you have the high and the low. A swing is not possible so you've locked 2nd again. If you DD and bust BR3 can overtake you if the dealer busts. I must be missing something though. I can't believe that my answers which are different to those before can be correct. Cheers Reachy
Can anybody confirm... ..where my error is in my previous post on this thread. I came up with different answers to everybody else so I must be wrong I just don't know where. Cheers Reachy
The problem with a bet of 990 is br3 has 1900 and bet 800. A win by br3 gives him 2700. I have 4500. If I bet 990 and end up splitting to try to catch br1 and lose then I drop to third by falling to 2520. (I use splitting as an example instead of doubling because I could double for less but not split for less.) By betting 800 I can split or double and not drop to third if I lose both and br3 wins his 800 bet without splitting or doubling it. The other thing the 800 bet does for me is make things more difficult for br1 if I am able to split or double. I am behind him by 500 so if I double I will win 1600 and even if he made a max bet of 1000 I take the lead if we both win. D.S.
Assuming you counted BR3's chips correctly and made the 1000 bet, I would have stood on the hard 14. This locks up 2nd for you. I'd rather be guaranteed $2,500 than risk the $1,000 for 1st. Others may consider this a bad way to think about it, I guess I'm not a huge risk taker when money is involved. I also agree there was a better bet, but when you only have 10 seconds to decide those mistakes can happen. You haven't mentioned what the outcome was. What did the dealer get?
I ended up third I doubled for 200 hoping I miscounted br3s chips thinking that doubling for more would do me no good. As it turns out I think this was right. Some would say that I should have doubled for 1000. This would shut out br1 if he doubled. But I doubt if he would have doubled if he knew that doubling his 600 he would still end up 2nd even if he won. (unless he won and I lost which would not be very likely) I ended up busting with a King. and fell to third by $200. As far as standing goes. I felt I had three options. STAND and be guaranteed 2500. DOUBLE to gain $2000 or lose $1000 if I bust. The way I look at it is I had $2500 in my pocket (standing), but I have the option of risking $1000 of it on a play that pays 2 to 1. To take this chance I needed about a 34% chance of winning. If I double I have a 56% chance of not busting. Thats good but now the dealer has to bust for me to make my $2000. This happens 42% of the time with a dealer 5 upcard. So, .56 X .42 = .235. That's not 34% so should I stay? NO! because if I hit my double I cant fall to third, because I have the high and low on br3 beause he has a stiff hand. Not busting my hand amounts to a PUSH or a WIN. So, I have a .235 chance of winning and a .44 chance of falling to third. The other 32.5% I end up 2nd, not losing anything for taking the chace. In conclusion .235/(.44 + .235) = .348. A 34.8% chance of winning $2000 and a 65.2% chance of losing $1000. Not counting all PUSH results. At this point in my calculations the dealer pointed out that I had already used 6 of the 10 seconds I had to make a decision! (A little humor never hurts) These figures do not take into account that if I double and make a hand br1 could also double and make a hand. br1 could win and me lose even without busting, but I also could win and br1 lose without busting. The next step in this puzzle is should I have doubled for less like I did, and if I didn't bust let br1 try to double; OR, double for a thousand and br1 stands knowing a double will do him no good? "EIGHT OF YOUR 10 SECONDS ARE UP SIR!!!" I think I have the answer to what he should do. And that may change my opinion of what I should have done. Need to do a few more calculations, but I only have 1 second left. D.S.
Slight miscalculation D.S. I think you have slightly underestimated your probability of beating the dealer when doubling. You say that if you double and don't bust the dealer has to bust for you to win the $2000 which I think is incorrect. In a situation where you double and don't bust, as well as winning when the dealer busts you can also win if the dealer makes a hand less than your hand (or equal to if a push is good enough). I haven't got time at the moment to figure out the odds but it will add a few %. It's unlikely to be enough to give you the odds you need but I thought I'd just draw it to your attention Cheers Reachy Added: I just calculated the probabilty of you beating the dealer with a 5 upcard by DD a hard 14 = 31.8%
You must also factor in a double down by br1 that beats the dealer with me losing or pushing without busting. I did take what you said into consideration, but I already had the odds I needed to call, I thought, without adding that in. I think the main question in all of this is will br1 double. with me doubling for less he can take the high and low by doubling and not busting. If he busts he still has the low. If he stands he only has the low. So, if my thinking is correct, he loses nothing by doubling. If I double for the full 1000, he cannot regain the high by doubling. If the dealer busts or I beat the dealer, I win. But, you must also take into account that br1 may think he needs to double and do it even though it will not allow him to retake the high. Although he should hit (depending on my hand) to try to beat the dealer with me losing or pushing. This just seems to get more and more complicated! D.S.
Double for MORE! You could try the double for more trick to make BR1 think you have more money on the table than you actually do thereby possibly coaxing them into the double. Not that I know of anyone who would try that. :laugh:
