What To Do....

when going through a very long dry spell,(no wins)murphs law,bad beat,right play wrong results, whatever! should i play through till change or take break
for awhile? if anybody has experience with either would like to hear how you handle it. thanks

 

One of the problems with gaming is that you never know when a dry spell, or hot streak, will end. I know it's tough, been there. The real problem is now psychological - thinking you can't win and therefore going in with a bad attitude. So I say play as long as you can maintain a positive attitude. Personally, I have cut back (bad attitude you know) during a dry spell but, of course, cutting back may cause you to miss some profitable opportunities. It's a dilemma and only you can make the final decision. Keep your chin up, Mr. Variance will shift in your favor at some point - hopefully before you die .

 

What a difference a single year makes!

When Bet21.com opened in August 2006 I was there right from the get go.

(Now before you start thinking, “Here he goes again!” WAIT. No complains about not receiving [you know what] ok? Here me out and tell me what you think.

In the beginning I played a VERY aggressive game. For instance I used 1/5 of my BR as a min bet. I doubled down on EVERY 11 I had – regardless of the dealer card, my opponents bets or my bet and BR. I WAS AGGRESSIVE.

I also stunk. I made multiple deposits in August, September and even October before the bleeding stopped. Somewhere in October 2006 that “light bulb” went off. I started to play a little differently. I started keeping written records of my play and the deposits STOPPED.

Then in November and December I actually managed to break even. In fact with 1 first place at the $5,000 Saturday Night Tournament (Oh how I long for the “good old days”) I actually turned the red into black. Not much (the initial hole was DEEP) but it was positive.

Fast Forward to March when I went thru what I affectionaly refer to as my conspiratorial phase combined with my righteousness phase. (Don’t worry I won’t rehash that for you). I took some time off and had a luck streak in April making a final table for the “big game”.

Since then I occasionally play on Bet21.com, trying to keep my EBJ “skills” intact. Actually I just wanted to get another place in the June “big game” which I can say FINALLY happened so I’m cool with it.

Now along comes ClubUBT (referred to as The club hereafter). I waited a week and I’m still in my “free trial” period but I’ve noticed SEVERAL things. Most disturbingly is that I’m the “old guy”.

What do I mean? I’ve played in several EBJ events at The club and haven’t made it to a final table yet! It’s something that I find disturbing and has me questioning my play. What’s wrong?

Well after a long drawn out process I figured it’s best to do what worked in the past – get our the paper, pencil, log books and track my games and playing. Lo and behold what I found startled me. I’ve become a conservative player! That’s right. When I compared my betting habits and strategies to the other players I noticed that they were now playing with the aggressive style that I was used to in the “old days” of December and January.

My style was much more conservative in that I wasn’t willing to go for the high if it meant giving up the low. I allowed many more DD opportunities to slide by, etc.

A perfect example was in a final EH hand of the quarterfinals with me last to bet. Most of the players used their secret bets and I was able to “call them” pretty close (well 3 of the 4). The “gave” me the low and heck I’ll take it. I mean with everyone going high I figured all I have to do is have 1 of the 4 bust or the dealer make a hand right?

The cards come out: position 1 – 12, position 2 – 14, position 3 18, position 4 soft 17, me 18 and the dealer has a Queen showing. I’m pretty happy, ready to get up and pour another glass of Riesling as I wait for this hand to conclude. To my surprise I see the following: position 1 – hits to 19, position 2 hits to 20, position 3 stands, position 4 hits to 21 and I stand. Dealer busts and I go home! Waaaa Waaaa!

Isn’t there any justice in this world? Was has the world of TBJ come to? What’s my point?

At what point do I “stick to my guns” and play my game versus modifying my game plan? Here's the "SCAREY" part. I do better at Bet21.com and feel that maybe I should just skip "the Club" and stay in the "known" sandbox instead of venturing forth. Is it just me or....?

 

It maybe you

It just maybe you fgk2. I've been reading your posts ever since you started bashing me. However, I'm not here to do the same to you. God says two wrongs don't make a right. Now, there is nothing wrong with your play. Theoretically, standing on the 18 is great. Just last night I made it to the final table of the Clububt tournament and when I usually play, I'm usually one of the last three standing in many of my tables. The way I play is say for example we all start off with $25,0000, seven places. I will be right out of the gate $10,000. I see it as I have seven hands left until we all get to the eighth. Some person usually always bets $25,000 during the first hand nine times out of ten one will be gone. It happens all the time in the sit-n-go's that I play in. I watch the board very well. I watch if I'm in first base, second base, or third. I like third so I can watch and play off of my opponents. That being said, a person or two is gone on that first hand. You have five left. If I lose I have $15k or $35K. I usually do because I have confidence in my game period fgk2. It sounds like you're questioning your abilities. If, and I say if your are, then please stop it. Stick to the game you know. I tell you what, I'm not taking any advice from anyone because I've been playing this game for years and have read many periodicals about the game and have come to the conclusion that you must play your own game and stop questioning your abilities. I hoep you're not because I don't back down from anyone. You thought Hollywood Dave was a mess. I talk, but I do it in a suttle manner in which to screw with your mindset. Maybe you were getting a count in a six or eight deck, and the count is +5 or six. I say to myself, "start a conversation with this guy to get in his head and see where it goes Kem." I'm really good and smiling in your face and when I make it to the next round I'm laughing and saying, I sure did get his you-know-what. I do it when I'm playing basketball, running track, or whatever activity I can get you to stay off track. Just keep doing what you're doing and you'll be fine. Peace.....By the way, nice post.

 

fgk

stick with the good play

it'll pay off in the long run - I have been playing online since september from an initial $50 in deposits - and have seen many long losing streaks - and same with winning spells -

basic thing I have learned - don't let the losing streaks change the way you play - if you do - then you start losing from bad play as well as bad cards - and it can take forever to turn around when that starts happening - just go with the probabilities and let the cards work themselves out

 

If my mind set has changed due to the dry spell, and it's affecting how I play, or even my fun at the tables, I will play a few low-level SNGs ($5, $10). If I keep losing...oh well, it's only a few dollars. If I start winning again, it's a confidence booster and playing becomes fun again. I then switch back to the higher-level SNGs and tournaments.

It's also fun (for me, at least) to try strategy variations at the $5 tables. If I lose, well, it's because of the variation. And I can laugh about it. If I win, I also laugh about it. I guess the important thing is that I'm "laughing" again. :laugh:

Taking a break for a few days has helped as well. As long as I can come back to the tables with a clearer head and more positive attitude.

 

Thanks for the words of encouragement. Once again I’ve gotta work on my use of the English language because I think I was mis-interpreted (SURPRISE! )

I guess what I’m asking is have the more experienced players noticed that in order to be successful at BJT do you need to have multiple “styles” of play?

I brought up Club UBT (The Club) for the sole reason that my percentages of showing up at the final table THERE have been less than at Bet21.com.

Now there are several possibilities:

1. there are better players at one site versus another site
2. There is a difference in the way the cards are dealt
3. Variance is just catching up to me.
4. I suck so it doesn’t matter either way

When playUBT.com was around my most effective method for getting a TEC was to simply min bet until there was only myself and 2 other players – then I started “playing”. That technique worked 20-40% of the time – It was a no brainer.

When I first played at Bet21.com I did a LOT of progression betting and it worked. When there was the seating fiasco I got CREAMED using that strategy and went to a min bet until I needed to make a move.

At ClubUBT a min bet until you need to make a move is, in my hands, less successful than a progressive or slightly aggressive style.

Now as much as you are expecting to read me writing about “fixed cards”, etc. I don’t believe it is true. I will say that the cards that come out are DIFFERENT than I see with a live deck but fixed – I don’t think so. (I just want to make that perfectly clear).

Other than the fact that I’m in a dry spell what got me thinking about this topic was a thread concerning WSOB Season 2 in which the posters wrote that when playing against “unknowns” they were more likely to play conservatively whereas when they were playing against “skilled opponents” they were more likely to do unconventional plays and I was thinking betting also a.k.a. DD on a hard 12 versus dealer 4-6.

So again I ask the question how do you determine which “tools” to use? Minimum betting versus progressions, versus aggressive surrendering, etc? Do your opponents matter? So many questions …so few tournaments…

 

suggestion

let your opponents find your strategy for you -

if they are chunking out chips - take the low/min bet - if they are playing conservatively/min bet - go for the high - if they are all over the map - play to the middle ranges of their bets - give yourself a chance to open up a gap - save the progression for when your strategy goes against you -

 

Kuczek is correct, fgk42:

But in addition to your lunch, pack your "tool" box.

As in another thread , nothing beats the "right" tool for the job.

And if you can't wrench that nut off, then like killing a fly with a shotgun, bring out the blow torch.

 

best strategy

also depends a lot on what the format is and rules are

surrender is a very powerful tool - that benefits experienced players

also - how many advance - betting limits, etc

I try to figure out a 'basic' approach, based on rules - then modify on the fly as I see people bet and play -

but always try to have a 'strategy' and 'goal' in mind - so every bet has a purpose - even if only to position myself among the other betters -

 

Uhhhhhhh - were those cheap shots????? :laugh: