Here is a question from what happened to me on an elimination hand on UBT the other night. We reached an elimination hand with only three of us remaining, two were going to advance. Unfortunately I was tied for low with BR3 and had to bet first. BR1 bet second and had $40K, while BR3 and I had $30K. Neither BR3 nor I still had our secret bets, so whatever I bet and whatever action I took was visible to him. I thought about what to bet, and finally settled on $15K looking for a mistake from either of the remaining players. BR3 matched my $15K bet. I think BR1 was dealt two faces (20), but I was dealt a hard 12 and BR3 was dealt hard 14, dealer has 10 up. Now comes the choice. Would you surrender knowing that BR3 can surrender behind you to force a tie breaker, or would you hit and hope? I chose to DD for less ($500), which made the dd card get dealt face down, so BR3 could not know if I busted or got a good hand. He winds up standing on his 14. Dealer has an 8, for 18, but my dd was only a 5, so we both lost and with my extra $500 bet, BR3 advances instead of me. I am figuring my surrender would have automatically resulted in BR3 surrendering too to at least lock a tie, but maybe not. Maybe that would have been the smarter play than my dd. Any thoughts?
Fwiw My "at the table" decision would have been to surrender. As you say BR3 would also probably have surrendered and it would have been a play off. By doubling even for a min. bet you have given up the low in a situation where you are likely to lose. I did some quick sums and BR3 had a 65.22% chance of winning when you doubled. I haven't figured his odds of winning should he have followed your double with a double of his own but my instinct says it's not as good as 65.22%. At least by surrendering you have a theoretical probabilty of 50% for advancing. Cheers Reachy
Were it not for the hidden DD card I doubt you would have made that play. I think the allure of taking away information from the other LB1 sucked you in. :eyepatch: I would hit and hope. If you make a hand it puts the hurt on him. --jr
The problem with hitting out in the open is the bust. Jackaroo is forgetting that your opponent is guaranteed to surrender for the win, if ptaylor busts.
Right. I realized that afterwards and edited out the part about busting, but you were too quick for me. --jr
I'd still have surrendered, but ... the ability to DD for zero, which was mentioned a while ago as an addition to the UBT rules in live games, would have added a new twist to this question.
Quick sum If the DD had been for zero then BR3 would have NOT lost 59.16% of the time if he stood. BR3 would have only won outright 7.1% of the time since he can only swing when both his opponent and the dealer busts out. Cheers Reachy
Not quite the issue Reachy, what I was getting at is what impact this would have had on the play. Would he have been induced to hit his 14? (or even DD?). What he should do in that situation is surrender, but would the uncertainty of the face-down card induce an error? That was the intent behind the DD for 500, but at a cost of gving up the (shared) low it was not worth it. DD for 0 adds an extra twist, but I still prefer the surrender option.
Great feedback These are all good points. I wish I could have DD for zero, that does at least prevent me from giving up the low. I don't recall how the playoff works about who bets first, but at least my odds might have been better to go that route. I think I have seen playoffs even where the same player had to bet first both hands. I think playing two hands is better than risking it all on one swing.
Interest Colin I understood the point you were making. I was simply interested in seeing how DD for zero effected the probability profile for BR3. Then I went to bed ! I too would have surrendered even with this scenario. Cheers Reachy
Sorry Reachy I was just a bit thrown by your response, since standing on 14 seems to me to be the least likely response to the DD for zero. (But then again, the initial matching of the 15K bet seems rather odd!)
No need... ... to apologise . I haven't had the time to figure the odds of the other potential actions since they are a bit more long-winded but it would be interesting to find out. What's interesting is that although in both cases the best course of action is likely to be the same for BR3 the outcomes are actually likely to be very different. Maybe... Cheers Reachy
Once again, I fear we are on different wavelengths. Could you clarify which two cases you're talking about here?
