I NEED A LITTLE BIT OF HELP…In the recent GN/Laughlin tournament 20 hands, 10 – 500 betting (multiples of 10), Double deck dealt face down, BJ pays 3/2, no surrender, no double after split. Split up to 4 times, count after 19. Dealer was hot!!! Only two players left. After hand 19, the button is on BR1 with 1260 ME with 970, last to bet. BR1 bets max (500) WHAT SHOULD I BET TO ADVANCE (1 ONLY)???
I'd bet 200. BR1 was in excellent position with a 290 lead (500 max) and foolishly overbet it. You cannot take the high so take what he gave you - the low. If you both lose the hand, you win by 10. And your BJ will beat his push, only a small bonus but it's a freebie.
My first inclination Think I'd bet $300 which gives me a win in lose/lose scenario. If it looks like BR1 has a winning hand I'd double down to have a chance with win/win scenario. Billy C
My first reaction is that you've received good advice from LeftNut and Billy. I tried to find some kind of insurance angle that would yield a better bet, but I can't see one. All I can say about it is that if your opponent takes insurance, then match it, if you can. If he does take insurance, he should bet at least 110 which would allow him to lock you out on a dealer blackjack. Re: Billy's arithmetic: I can empathize completely. My arithmetic is always suspect. It has cost me money at the table and is the reason behind almost every edit I've ever made to a post here.
Take The Low Rule of thumb: If you're behind acting last, take what the leader offers. He has to offer something if you're behind by less than a max bet minus the minimum bet. In this game, he offered you the low so you'd take it and bet 200. Your probability of advancement in this situation is right around 48% if this opponent uses basic strategy. If this opponent had been smarter and bet 280, you'd bet 500. Your probability of advancement would be around 44% if you and the opponent use basic strategy.
A tournament follow up My first thought was to split my money for 480 as I could double down on anything for the win but sadly I decided to bet 10 bucks. The results were dealer dealt a hard 19 to BR1, me a blackjack and dealer showed a 6. The dealer hit her 16 and busted. The blackjack gods were with me but I missed it. Everyone is a genius after we see the cards!!! Thanks for all the advice, I do appreciate it.
Your bet of 10 wasn't much worse than the suggested bet of 200. You still had the low and the only thing you gave up was the chance for your blackjack to beat your opponent's push. Hmmmm, I don't see how the gods were with you with these cards. Even with your planned bet of 480 or a max bet of 500, your blackjack would not beat the likely win by your opponent. Your best option would have been to double your blackjack (if allowed). If not allowed you would have to pray for the dealer to get 19 or more.
Better luck next time! Needless to say, the ten dollar bet gave you the "low" but I'm sure you now see the reasoning behind the $200 bet which also gives you the "low". By the way, I'm far from a pro (as my math illustrated) but LeftNut, Gronbog and MonkeySystem are three of the most knowledgeable tourney players out there and they consistently give rock solid advice. Billy C
Game Day Meals From actual observation, I can say that Billy, Monkey and Lefty all adhere to a strict diet of crab legs and beer on tournament day
