what would you do?

This situration took place at a tournament table that I was watching last nite.

6 decks, DA2, DAS, BJ 2:1, no ins., no sur., max $500 min $15., 30 sec time limit on bet and play. Time-out = max bet.

only 2 players in contention, last hand

1st bettor BR $2135 (skillful player)
2nd bettor BR $1630 (newbie)

What should each bet?(don't read ahead)



what they did bet;
1st bet a max $500
2nd matched with $500




Dealer up card 8
1st bettor cards 10-2
2nd bettor cards 10-7
What action should each take and why?



I'll give results in a later post.


tgun

 

With those circumstances if I were BR1 I'd do a $15 min DD bet to hide my card from player 2. That would make player 2 have to have DD on a hard 17.

But I bet the DD card was face up right

 

I go along with Monkeysystem. BR2 being a newbie may not think or be too nervous to think of a doubledown, then again they just may. But the odds of catching a double on a 17 are slim (someone do the math for me).

Disagree with FGK42, what if BR1 did DD with a minimum of $15 and then lost his hand while BR2 got a push. BR1 would then lose. If BR2 thinks about it then he would realize that a sucesssful min DD by BR1 would shut him out even if he would have a sucessful DD for $500, so he may choose not to DD and take his chances on a push.

I suppose a lot has to do also with how BR2 played previous hands, did he take some risks when it was appropriate or did he play conservative. This could give you a clue as to how he may play this hand. This is where some friendly table talk early could help you. "Believe you're new here. Where do you normally play?" "So, this is your first tournament? Good luck"

Of course I am still fairly new at tournament BJ and still trying to learn to get better. I also admit that my math (or thinking) could be off on this, like I said I'm still learning.

 

The purpose of the $15 (min bet) DD was to hide my card, thereby confusing BR2.

Is it a risky play? with a 12 vs dealer 8 and my opponent having a 17 - I'd do it. Is it the optimal play? Heck no but then again I wouldn't have bet 500 as BR1 either.

 

Very few tournaments outside UBT and WSOB deal the DD card down. And of those that do, if the DD can bust you then the vast majority will deal the DD card up. So unless a "teaser" specifically says the DD card is always dealt down then you must assume the DD card will be dealt up.

So with that in mind, what is your revised bet?

Unless BR2 is a complete numskull, he's going to bet the max of $500. So I'll go with the $500 bet by BR1 to cover a possible DD or BJ (don't forget BJ pays 2:1) by BR2. This way BR1, without risking a DD, wins (assuming BR1 does not DD) if BR2 pushes or loses. Also, I would stand on the 12 and make BR2 "earn" a victory - which has a very low probability of succeeding.

 

Once again I forgot that the rest of the BJT world Doesn't use the secret DD card! (All I see is WSOB - which BTW the last hand was exciting - more to come on that) and EBJ.

So knowing that I can't "hide" my DD hand I wouldn't DD.

In fact I would only bet 490 as BR1 - since my lead was 495. I'll just do the traditional lead minus a chip. Then in this case I wouldn't hit the 12 and make BR2 DD to win it from me.

 

Hit or Stand?

Actually the lead is 505, so 500 is a perfect bet.

About playing.
If BR1 stand, the only chance for BR2 is to DD and win while dealer makes a hand.
That happens 14.76% of the time.

If BR1 hit to 17, then
BR2 stand if BR1 bust (48.25%), and
BR2 DD if BR1 make a hand.
That happens 14.77% of the time.

So which way you wanna go?

 

Hit and Hit again

100% agree about doubling or hitting.
Check these numbers about hitting hard 17 more than once.

BR1 Stand on 12

BR2 Hit to 18 - successful 14.76%
BR2 Hit to 19 - successful 14.82%
BR2 Hit to 20 - successful 11.61%

So it is better to Hit and even more than once.

 

Funnily enough, I just played out this same situation, but with radically different cards.

I was feeling pleased with myself, with a lead of max bet plus a chip, and leading out with a max bet. The smile was wiped from my face when the cards were dealt -
Dealer: 7
Me: hard 15
BR2: T,T

I hit, which I think is the right move (marginally). Is that right? Of course, I bust and was cursing my fate.

To my surprise, BR2 then split the tens. Must have got confused.

I'd just had a run of several losses, with some alarming cases of bad luck (including an opponent snatching victory with a DD on hard 20, yielding an ace and thus 21, after I had DD'd on hard 17 and also made 21:flame: , so I like to think I was due this bit of good fortune.

 

No sure about this one but in the heat of battle I would have stood on the 15. BR2 could very easily have thought that he must win a double bet to pass you and then split his T,T. A split most likely will result in at least one hand being a stiff and he may stand on that stiff. BR2 standing on that stiff would guarantee you a win.

 

In the light of what actually happened, that's very true! But I was thinking in terms of what the right play would be, if you assume BR2 will stand.

 

If you assume BR2 will stand then Hit to 17 is the best play. It gives you 47.25% vs 41.5% if you stand.

 

The results

Br 1 screwed up by hitting his 12 and busting. He said that he knew he had screwed up as soon as he signaled for the hit.


He realized that Br2 being a newbie probably didn't even know that he had a lead of $505. And also would not know to hit her 17 if he just stood.

To make matters worse the dealer busted giving Br2 the win which was a seat at the final table.

Another skillful player screw up! Happens to the best.

"There's always a better play".

Swog if I were Br2 I would hit to 19 or bust trying that's why I would not dd.

tgun

 

Thanks. That sounds about right. When it's as close as this then I can see that assessing what you think the other player will do can be a worthwhile exercise. Even if you are wrong more often than right, you may still gain overall because you gain so much more by being right than you lose by being wrong, if you see what I mean.

It seems like, in this case, standing was the best option against any opponent, newbie or grand master.

I'm very familiar with the phenomenon of wanting to take back my decision the moment it has become irrevocable. At least, online, no one can hear me yelp when I realise I've screwed up yet again!

 

Thanks

Tgun, arlick, and all others who posted on this thread:

THANKS. These are the types of threads where people learn and helps us all to become better TBJ players.

Yeah I may joke around a lot and try to keep it light but with the help of ALL members isn't THIS really what its about?