What would you do...

In the Golden Nugget tourney this weekend I had a situation that was confusing. What would the experts do?

Double deck, BJ pays 3/2, no DAS, S17, betting range is 10 - 500, no surrender, 1 advance. Bets must be divisable by 10. Dealer has been "HOT"!!!

Player 1 has the button and it is last hand

Player 1 has 505 bets 500 keeps 5 back
Player 2 has 240 goes all in
Player 3 has 495 the teaser...what to bet?
other 3 players are gone.

On Sunday after a response period, I will post the results.

Thanks for the suggestions

 

10

Player 3 should bet 10, locking out player 2 (barring a BJ).

 

What about?

Just to play devils advocate and get a some more posting here, how about the following bet?

$10 is a good bet and it will lockout player 2 even with a win/loss. However with only 1 advancing what about a $110 bet by player 3?

This would give up the lock on a P2 win and P3 loss, but you can cover these other situations.

1) If you win and P1 pushes you win instead of a tie with the $10 bet.

2) If P2 should hit a BJ and you cover him.

3) P3 will still cover P2 on a win/win or loss/loss.

Now is this the best bet? Maybe not but with only 1 advancing I would tend to play a little more aggressive myself and take the tie with out of the equation with P1.

Now should P1 lose, P2 push, and I also lose I just go throw up...lol.

Just another option, I'll let Monkeysystem, Toolman, London Colin, Ken, S.Yama do the math on this one to see how close both options are.

 

The best bet is $10. If going with anything else my choice is $260 or more which gives me the double down and BJ chances to bypass a straight bet win by player #1.

Billy C

 

Wrong!

After making that post I realize my BR is only $495 so forget about dd possibility. $350 or more would work with a last hand BJ.

Billy C

 

If I were P3...I'd overbet P1 the value of a BJ and not worry about P2. After playing the round, I would have also been able to pick up on P2's never-level to know if they would do anything crazy like an insane DD on a mid-teen hand. If that was the case, then kick my bet up a notch.

I'm not just a "maths" and Basic player....I also play the player.

 

250.

 

The tables say 10

Using the 3 player outcome tables with BJ's paying 1.5 to 1, then 10 is the best bet. For 3 players the various bets for player 3 are shown below.


Player 3 Bet.....................Probability of Advancing

.....10.................................0.4726
...20-60..............................0.4387
.....70.................................0.4393
...80-100.............................0.4398
..110-250............................0.4455

above 250 the probability for P3 is less than 0.44


...............................BlueLight

 

Very educational!!!

Well this was very enlightening and I am glad I do not have to play you guys.

The actual player 3 was me and I took the low road. Went in for 480 and kept 15 back. I quickly figured that if the dealer beat everyone, I would advance. I could not catch BR1 but if BR2 & I won I would beat him. I use the KISS method. I can not figure too many senarios...

The play of the hand was a nightmare...

Dealer had a 2 up

BR 1 got a hard 15 and stood

BR 2 got a hard 12 and took 3 hits for a 21

BR 3 (me) got a hard 16 and hit to 19. I hit because I had to get a decent hand!!! or definately loose to BR 2.

Dealer hit to a 20 and guess who won...BR 2. You guys are VERY SMART. I did not advance and BR 2 made it into the semis. Thanks for all of your comments. This is the 5% skill that better be there when you need it within 30 seconds. "Lucky" was not on my side but there was some room for "skill" to take over but I missed it.

 

Pray....

Askdick:

You needed to pray, but since I know that you're not a "praying man" (LOL), a $10 bet would have been my choice. As I was there watching, I was hoping that you would have made the $10 bet, but you didn't. BR 2 got lucky, but as you have so aptly said, one has to have a little of Lady Luck combined with some of the skill that we as Members of this Board all seek to refine.

Look forward to doing Blackjack Battle with you again in the near future, as always.

Skipper

 

You should of kept hitting, as you had nothing to lose.

It would of been nice to have met some board guys out there as I also played the tourny and came in 3rd. I'll be back in May. It was a well run tourny IMO.

TLR

 

Very enlightening and entertaining thread. Thanks, askdick, for starting it up, and what a bummer that the cards fell all bass ackwards for you!

When I answer any teasers, I give myself a quick timeframe to figure it out - just as if I was sitting at the table. My 250 bet was second best, as pointed out by the "numbers guys" earlier, but it was a close call. After seeing the numbers, I'd still bet the 250 as this would give me the lose-push and the win-win (even with his BJ) over BR3 as well as the win-push and lose-lose over BR1. Hate the idea of just sitting there in this situation hoping that the dealer does my job for me!

 

Leftnut

Great thoughts Leftnut. You have your "Warrior" strategy even on this forum.

Of course this is what I would expect from a very top rated BJT player and the competitor most fear to have at their table. (National Gallup Poll-09).



CP

 

Congrats....

TLR:

Congratulations on your 3rd Place finish! Well done my friend.

Skipper

 

Pretty close

Bluelight showed us the numbers to prove that the $10 bet was the best and that a $110 - $250 bet was 2nd best. I figured the percentages would be close, actually they were even closer then I thought they would be, just .o271% difference between the two bets.

 

When I first read teasers I give my self 30 seconds to make a decision. In this case I went with the $480. With only one advancing I would have bet the $480 and hoped the dealer kicked butt on the whole table. After reading the rest of the posts I too agree with the math and feel the $10 was a better bet. As you all know 30 seconds goes quickly.

 

Good point

Thrasht brought up an excellent point. The time given in which to make your bet is normally between 10 - 30 seconds,not much time. Most players ask me how I can figure out so fast what the best bet should be in so short of time?

First it isn't fast you to need to know the chips counts first and next "DON'T WAIT TILL IT'S YOUR TURN TO BET TO START TRYING TO FIGURE THE BET OUT"!

You should be figuring out how much the other players have or can get to as soon as they lose or win the hand before and have a plan to what your going to need to bet. It's like playing baseball, you have to know what and where to go with the ball if it comes to you. Same in tournament blackjack, your decisions should be based on your situation, your playing position, amount of chip's for both you and the other players.

 

It's 2.71%. That's still a lot closer than I would have thought, though. My $10 answer was not the result of any calculations, just the assumption that a lockout has to be best.