Hi In a recent tournament I was 3rd to act on the last hand with 2 to advance. BR2: $ 7400 Bet $2500 BR4: $ 6250 Bet $2500 BR3: $ 7150 Bet ? (This is me) BR1: $ 8800 Bet ? Can you suggest what the best bet would be in this situation? Thank you Dogen
Is it safe to assume that 2,500 is the max bet ? Is it also safe to assume that there is no surrender available in this tournament ? Knowing these two rules would make the answer to this question more precise If 2,500 is the max bet and there is no surrender and the cards are dealt face up Your best bet would be to bet 2245 holding back 4905 This gives you 2nd low with the ability to DD to regain back one of the highs after you see you opponents hands and out comes. If the dealer makes a hand and beats player 1 & 2 you will win with one of the lows If you get dealt a Blackjack you will win if you opponents don't know to DD or don't win their forced DD. You will also win if player 1 loses and you win You will also win if player 1 pushes and you win Player 2 can not beat you with a straight win /win for the both of you. Joep
Use Your Position If you bet 2245 you get the low on BR2. You also have high and low on BR4. Then you double if your chance of winning that is better than BR2's chance of losing a single bet. You also might get lucky and get some kind of swing on BR1.
More information! Thank you for you responses. Joep - The max was 2500 and surrender was an option. Sorry I did not include this information initially. I did bet 2245 but did not advance unfortunately. Kindest Dogen
Your Turn With Surrender as an option your bet needs to be different now. So I will turn this around on you . What should have been your bet with Br 2 having the option to surrender after he see all the hands and bets Joep
I'll give it a shot! You're pointing me in a particular direction so I will take it ! If BR2 surrenders they will be on 6150 so if I bet 1995 I can surrender to 6152.50 and lock them out. I also have the low and can double to take the high over BR2. Actually a slightly better bet might be 1895 because I will still have the high and low over BR4, can lock out BR2 if they surrender, can double to take the high, and can surrender to the absolute low over BR4. What do you think? Many thanks Dogen
Just curious... Same situation, no surrender available and you think BR1 will bet minimum. In this situation what is the optimum bet? Should you take the low on BR 2 thinking you would be second low if all hands lose? Thanks, Rounder21
Ignore my last post... Joep you were suggesting taking the low on BR2 and you answered the last question I asked. Sorry this stuff is confusing to me sometimes I'm new. But I was in a similar situation and last to bet. BR1 bet minimum so I think I played it right. I took the low on BR2 leaving the option of doubling to take one of the highs. I couldnt estimate his chips very well, but BR1 bet so low that I may have even been able to over take him with a win for a #2 spot no matter what he did. Gotta go thanks for the great posts guys Rounder21
What about a bet of 1700? It beat a BR1 min bet win or push, BR4 win, can be doubled to beat a BR2 win or BR3 BJ, and can be surrendered to stay ahead of a BR4 push. And if everyone loses you still advance. Just a thought.
like it I like cherubs bet. It has more options to win. BR1 ain't going to minimum bet here though. I would guess that they would probably bet somewhere between 1150 to 1600 to have the high and low over everybody. Actually for BR1 I like 1350 because it forces wins from the others and covers the high. A BR1 min bet almost locks out BR4 but they could double and take you. The odds of both BR3 and BR2 winning are 30% and if you add in the chances of BR4 successfully doubling (33%) I would guess the chances of BR1 advancing with a minimum bet are between 55% and 70%. Without my Wong in my hands eek: ) I don't know what the chances of advancing are when a BR1 win locks it up, a loss requires 2 players out of 3 to win and a push requires 2 out of 2 to win. I'm pretty sure its more than 70%. Cheers Reachy
Outcome The hand went as follows BR2: $ 7400 Bet $2500 BR4: $ 6250 Bet $2500 BR3: $ 7150 Bet $2245 BR1: $ 8800 Bet $1600 BR2: A 2 BR4: T 8 BR3: 6 9 BR1: 2 5 Dealer: T BR2: Surrendered BR4: Stand BR3: Hit - Bust (Me) BR1: Surrender Dearer: 20 BR2 and BR1 advance. Should I have stood or was I right to hit? Many thanks Dogen
That is a tough call. I think in the moment I would have hit to 18 or better. I don't have any numbers to back this thought up, so if one of the number guys has something concrete that would be awesome.
tricky BR1 has yet to make his move and that depends on the outcome of BR3. If BR3 stands then BR1 will not bust and therefore locks up 1st or 2nd. BR3 can advance if he stands with a chance of 23.02%. If BR3 hits and gets 16 or 17 then BR1 will adopt a no bust strategy again and is guaranteed to advance. If BR3 hits to 18 or above BR1 needs to think. If BR3 gets 18 then BR1 will advance if they all win, all bust or a swing BR1's way. If BR1 stands on a stiff then the chances are 87.86% as a dealer 17 is the only hand that can hurt BR1. It's looking pretty good for BR1 So for BR3 I would assume that BR1 guarantees the win and would concentrate on beating BR4 and BR2. BR3 can't lose else BR2 or BR4 will advance along with BR1. He can push though so long as BR4 loses. All BR3 needs to do is beat the dealer... So standing BR3 wins 23.02% of the time Hitting once only wins 26.8% of the time. If you hit 16 or 17 hit again. You did the right thing Dogen but you were odds on to lose. Sorry! Cheers Reachy
