What's my bet?

Semifinal table----1 of 4 advances to final---- last hand I'm BR1 with $2900----BR2 has $2850, BR3 has $2825, BR4 has $2700 and bets first. His bet is $2700. I'm next so what should I bet?
For the ones that witnessed this please don't give my choice away. I will do that after seeing some answers.
Thank you!
Minimum bet is $25 and no max bet limit

Billy C

 

Trying for the low here is almost worthless with 2 players betting in back of you and each having sizable bankrolls. That being said, hold back $25 for the hell of it (who knows, maybe both players in back of you will go all-in giving you the low - not likely but possible) and bet the rest. Going high is your only reasonable play.

 

I like $2825

$2825 gives you the high .

 

In this particular scenario, exact sizing of one's bet is of extremely little or no value. A bet of 2875 (my choice) or 2825 (the optimum choice) will produce the same results. Even if the hold-back of 75 were made in $1 chips, a player will not be confusing his/her opponents. Even a knucklehead would know you are holding back say 200 or less and the knucklehead could easily hold back 300 to take the low - not that a knucklehead knows what "taking the low" means.

I like to play on the casual side (camouflage) when possible so others at the table do not peg me as having much experience. Just casually holding back 25 (using 1 green chip) - instead of spending time calculating my optimum bet - accomplishes this in this particular scenario. Yes, it's part of camouflage and it does come in handy at times.

 

Another Try

You could also try betting 1425 to entice the others to go all in. Now you can double down or split to correlate and get the high (and low).



.................................BlueLight

 

This happened

My bet was exactly what toolman1 suggests ($2875). I agonized about giving up the "locked low" but there was already a big bet in front of me and the 99.9% certainty of two more than minimum bets behind me.
This is how it played out----BR4 had the aforementioned all in $2700 bet and my $2875 bet left me with $25, next BR2 bet $2800 (keeping $50), then BR3 bet $2750 (keeping $75)-------dealer has a ten up, BR4 hit hard 14 and breaks, I hit hard 12 and catch one of those tens that start with the letter f, BR2 stands on hard 17 and BR3 stands on hard 18, dealer flipped another ten and the $75 bankroll advanced to final table.
Thanks for all responses to this.

Billy C

 

My boo-boo

I'll confess that I was the one who got BillyC thinking about his bet after the game was over. I thought that taking the low on everyone, knowing that the following opponents might likely do just what they did, would be a good call. The logic was that as BR1, he could take the pure low but not the pure high because of the possibility of an opponent 2:1 BJ. However, after a good natured dressing-down on the phone from Monkeysystem while discussing it, I see where I was quite wrong. Billy made the best bet in a bad situation and the cards just didn't cooperate. Kudos, my friend!

 

Didn't know

Truth is, I didn't even know that you questioned my bet. I have Wong's Casino Tournament Strategy book but couldn't reference it when I got home, thus my post questioning my bet choice.
When I located it, I was happy to reconfirm my choice (according to Wong).
It's a case of being "wrong" when I was "right". The line between "best" bets is very fine at times, isn't it?
I complained about my bet position but it hindsight it really wasn't a factor, either.

Billy C

 

Why not stay on your hard 12? In this situation your best friend is dealer bust, which is more likely than you happen to catch a high card total like 19+, which is needed considering dealer's picture upcard.

By the way, this sentence is funny: "...and catch one of those tens that start with the letter f"

 

Thank you for your quick response to this Monkeysystem.

Here, if you make a hand of 18 or higher you're not the automatic winner, because dealer can get 19, 20, 21 or a blackjack to beat everyone and you will be out as you are taking the high (of course taking the high is the correct play here by BillyC.) You need to get a high enough total to secure a win, 18+ at least (18+?!! . How likely is it for you to reach a good enough card total without busting to beat dealer's picture upcard (or push with a total of 18+)? I feel it is not very likely.

By the way, BillyC ended up busting with 22, not 17, as he mentioned.

 

Monkeysystem - yes I guess you are right. Also, perhaps it is more likely for you to outdo or push the dealer by hitting than dealer bust with a 10 (like you said 23% probability). I just don't know the probability of hitting 12 against 10 to win, which I feel is not so high. Would be nice to see a concrete figure, if there is any.

Also, this episode seems to suggest another rule of thumb: when multiple opponents are trailing you by a small margin and only 1 will advance and you must bet first, your best strategy is to take the high. This time the OP was just unlucky to be prevented from advancing.

 

Exactly. But that minimum-bet guy could be correct in his strategy, because he has effectively secured a low (if he is the only one who bets minimum) - in this situation you will be foreced to take the high against him. He just won't let you have both.

 

Good to see new member posting!

garygo,
Thanks for contributing your thoughts and I too encourage you to keep doing the same.
I still agonize about how that turned out but in hindsight I'd play it the same way again. Hard 16 would have made it a lot tougher to hit my hand but with hard 12, I felt it was a "nobrainer" (the count was even in my favor) for not getting one of those "f-ing tens" so even if my first hit is a 4 I'm probably hitting again (after some serious pondering!)

Billy C

 

Billy, you've made a correct play in this hand. I think there is no difference between any stiff and 17, because even if you pushed the dealer with a 17 you would still be out of the game. As we discussed previously, anything below 17 would have very slim chance to beat the dealer, so hit until you reach a total of 18+ - that is, even you caught a 5 for the next card, you would still need to hit once again, risking busting your hand to get a better total. Do you think so?

 

No

I'm quite sure that I'd have stopped hitting at hard 17. Don't remember exactly what the count was at the time but it was positive which makes hitting hard 17 very high risk.

Billy C