Y'all have probably discussed this scenario before. You are in a very good betting and playing position. The results of this hand will dictate what you have to do on the last hand. 2 hands to play. 5000K minimum, 50000 maximum, surrender available. You have a power chip that can be used for any card (your opponents have already used theirs). * is the first bettor Player (money) bet #1 (125,500) 40,000 #2 (125,000) ?? #3 * ( 25,000) 25,000 #4 ( 50,000) 50,000 #4 could be in the lead after the hand if he gets a BJ and #1 and #2 both lose. Should you bet 5000? So if you lose and #1 wins, you have the possibility to win with a max bet, BJ, or double down on the last hand. Should you bet 38,000? So if you and #1 both lose or you both surrender you will be in the lead by 1500 or 500. This give #4 the chance to be in the lead. Or, is there some bet in-between that might be better. Once you have decided on some bet. Dealer has a 10 showing. #3 has 19 and stands #4 has 18 and stands #1 has a soft 18 and gets the 3 for 21 You have 14 and (8,6). Assuming you bet the minimum, I doubt that you would use your power chip on the hand. You would probably just hit and accept the results. Assuming you have bet 38,000 (or something besides the minimum). Should you surrender? Use the power chip to replace the 8 or 6? Take a hit and use the power chip to replace a bust card? Hopinglarry
Power chip What does the powerchip do? I would have correlated with #1 and bet $40K and then when the cards came out I would surrender. I wouldn't risk being BR3 on the final hand. With hindsight we know that a smaller bet would be better when the cards came since we would lose less, still be BR2, and likely be within a max bet of BR1. Regards Dogen
At this tounament the power chip allows you to replace either of your first 2 cards with the next card in the shoe, or replace a hit card with the next card in the shoe, or since double down cards are face down, you can use the power chip to look at the double down card and either keep it or replace it with the next card in the shoe. Hopinglarry
Here's my answer, although I'd really like to see what someone who has done the numbers has to say. First I would like to know how many advance, or is this the final table of a tourney? Either way I would have bet 41,000 to give me BR1 on the final hand if everyone wins a single bet. After the cards were dealt is a little more tricky. If the dealer has 20 there will only be 2 players left on the final hand. If you surrender that gives you a huge disadvantage as BR2 with just 2 players. If this is the final table, and I'm playing for 1st I would have hit and used the power chip to replace a bust card. It's important not to bust this hand, and not to surrender it (IMO). However, if 2 advance I would surrender to stay ahead of #4 if he wins.
Some figures Now I know what the powerchip does it does make it more interesting. If #2 Stands probability of losing = 76.98% If #2 Hits and doesn't use powerchip probability of losing = 69.85% If #2 Hits and uses powerchip for bust cards probability of losing = 53.15% If #2 Hits to 18 and uses powerchip for bust cards probability of losing = 50.9% Using the above scenarios the probability of #2 being BR3 going into the final hand are Standing = 27.05% Hit no powerchip = 24.55% Hit and use powerchip = 18.68% Hit 18 and use powerchip = 17.89% (to be BR3 #2 needs to lose while BR3 wins and BR3 wins 35.15% of the time) Surrender of course means you are 100% to be BR2. As for #1, we may as well assume that he will win his bet (96.23%). So what's the best way to minimise the differential between #2 and #1? Winning is the best thing to do of course followed by a push, surrender and a loss. We've already seen what the probabilities of hitting and standing are so we know what the best "action" is - hit to 18 and use powerchip if necessary. The question is, is a 50.9% chance of losing a single bet better in this scenario than a 100% chance of losing 1/2 bet? Looking at the initial bet, if you want to slightly differentiate yourself from #1 isn't it better to bet slightly smaller than slightly bigger, say 35K? If you bet bigger than #1 you have a 50% chance of being BR2 after the hand. If you correlate exactly you have a 19% chance of being BR2. If you bet slightly smaller you have a 49% chance of being BR2. The flip-side of that is that with an over-correlation you are BR1 49% of the time; with an exact correlation you are BR1 19% of the time and with an under-correlation you are BR1 50% of the time. So if your glass is 1/2 full under-correlate and if your glass is 1/2 empty correlate exactly! Regards Dogen
