Here's a scenario from a recent tournament on the Mississippi Gulf Coast: One player advances from this table, $2500 max bet. Player A: $2100 Player B: $1530 Player C: $2525 What are the appropriate bets for each, and as an additional question, what should Player B bet if Player A goes all-in?
I guess this question shows how little I know! If I were player B, and Player A bet ahead of me and went all-in and won his/her hand, I have no chance of beating him with an all-in bet, even if I caught a blackjack. So, I guess I have to bet on player A losing his bet or pushing. I would guess that player C would bet to cover player A's all-in bet. A win on a $1700 bet would put him up $25, should player A win his all-in bet. So, I'm thinking Player B's only move is to have more than A and C if they both lose. If Player B bets $700 and wins he would have more than A if he pushes and C if he loses a $1700 bet. BUT, by now I'd be frustrated not knowing what C will bet. I will bet $1000, hopefully confusing player C. If I win my hand, I have a slim chance to win, assuming A loses his hand and C pushes. Okay, Ken, I give up. What should they do? I see a lot of different ways to look at this.
long but not the longest answer Interesting case. Let me analyze second part of the teaser. (Player A- 2100 bets all, player B- 1530, player C- 2525, last hand, one winner. Best bet for player B?) Player B needs to gain more than 570 to player A and more than 995 to player C. There are three basic ranges of bets for player B: 1. Small bet. Player A must lose and player C must bet “big” and lose, as well. The key element here is whether player C is going to bet big. Skillful player C will know that by betting small s/he locks out player B and hopes that player A doesn’t win, for a total chance of over 56%. If player C bets big s/he can’t lose his/her hand (player B has the “low”) and can’t push if player A wins for a total chance of about 50%. Slightly better play by player A locks out player B (0% chances), but if player A chooses to bet big “our” player B has a hefty 30% chance of advancing (both players A and C lose their bets). 2. Medium bet of at least 665 and less than 680. Player C is still better off by not giving low to player B, but now player B has a chance of advancing if s/he wins the hand and, at the same time, player A pushes or loses and player C loses. Additionally, if player B gets a blackjack or wins doubled bet, then it overcomes player’s C push. Playing strategy would change from the basic, especially if cards were dealt face up. It seems to me that chances for this play to succeed are roughly short of 9%. 3. Big bet of more than 995 (and as close to it as possible). This bet increases chances for player C by generally giving him both hi and low but it forces him/her to bet more than 1675 to cover player’s A win. Player C by betting more than 995 gives player B chance to advance not only when he is swinged (won-lost) but also when s/he loses and player B pushes, and also when player B wins and player C pushes. I would not be surprised if it all added up to a tad more than 10% chance. By betting as close to 995, say even one thousand (one or two, nonchalantly thrown in chips), player B increases chances for having a “low” (all players lose) if player C bets anything more than 1995, say a convenient two thou. If you, as player B, estimate that player C, regardless your small bet, is going to bet big more than 33% of times– bet small. Otherwise bet one thousand. Good luck in your next tourney, S. Yama PS It’s funny how effectiveness of many seemingly different strategies falls within 2%-3%. PSS I have some bj tournament posts on A. Snyder’s Blackjack Forum Online: http://message.bjfonline.com/
