Most of the teasers in this forum deal with final hand strategy. This one, however, deals with late game strategy in the hands leading up to the final hand. The idea here is not to get you to tell me what you would bet this hand, but to get your inputs in the subject of late game strategy. Sooner or later, you want to go for the lead or bust out trying. The question is one of timing. Which hand will you choose to go for the lead? What situations would affect this decision? Here's my situation last night. The bankrolls here aren't exactly what they were in the real game but they represent the situation I faced. One advance. 2:1 BJ's. No surrender or insurance. Two deck pitch. Minimum bet 5, maximum bet 200. There are about three or four hands yet to be dealt before the next shuffle. The hi-low count is already TC -4. 8th last hand. =>Spot 1, bankroll 285, bet 15 Spot 2, bankroll 400, bet 15 Spot 3, bankroll 515, bet 5 Spot 4, bankroll 535, bet 10 Me, bankroll 480, bet ? All of these players have been betting relatively conservatively, with only a few slightly elevated bets so far after seventeen hands. Questions: Is it too early to take advantage of position at this point and fire out a max bet? If you wait until you have position again it will be the 3rd last hand. Is that too late? Can you make your move when some opponents can react behind you? Do you need to bet as high as 200 or will something smaller suffice? Do you need to do it at all?
It's still just a bit early for a balls-out big bet. I'd try something smaller in this case, enough to get me in the lead or close to it but not enough to cause me a serious chip deficiency problem. With 7 more hands to go, if I successfully blast away now then I'm giving the whole table too many hands to shoot back at me. Since this is a "button pass" hand but I've still got another one coming, and everyone bet so small, I'd take the opportunity to jockey for better chip stack position without crippling myself.
I'm with LeftNut, thinking it's a bit early to be too aggressive. I might be tempted to shoot for the lead here with a barely-enough bet though. The risk is that you'll rouse the timid bettors into action and start a free-for-all. On the more basic question of timing, against most opponents I would prefer to wait a few more hands before shooting for a big lead. Unless someone else jumps out to a big lead, I would even be willing to wait for the 3rd to last hand to take my shot. This decision would be tougher if my next pass-the-button hand were the next to last hand. Even then I would likely wait a few more hands, but wouldn't be willing to wait until H-1.
One-Winner Format Risk Management In fact this is exactly what I did. My bet won, too. But I couldn't hold the lead as the eventual winner max bet hard doubled 14 and got a 6 on a later hand. This is what got me thinking about late hand strategy. In many games I'm the chip leader in late hands for one or two turns, but can't hold it. It would be easier to hold it if I were the chip leader with a max bet or more lead. The players on this site understand final hand strategy much better than an average, casual player. We have a significant advantage in heads-up situations against these players. A way to leverage this advantage is to take a lead in a late hand and force everyone to catch up, sizing this lead so that the odds are only one player should catch you. The tricky part is estimating how big a lead needs to be to maximize the chance of one and only one player catching you. If you make it too small, multiple players should catch you. If you make it too big you took unneeded extra risks. You can't leverage your skill advantage if you're in a crowd, or if everyone busted out.
I have an unfair advantage because I know who did the hard 14 DD and beat you. He is definitely NOT some casual player schmuck, not by a long shot. The man can play! You made a great move, forced him into a very low-percentage stunt to attempt catching up, and he beat the odds to make it. Not a lot you can do about that. Sometimes Lady Luck smiles on you, sometimes she squats on you.
Generalities Lefty you're right, the guy who beat me is not an average, casual player at all. Definitely not someone I want to be heads up against. I was speaking in general terms.
"Exceptionally skilled & automated tourney machines"??? What have you been smoking now, CP? :laugh: There is a big difference between respect and fear of an opponent. Respect the skills of a good player, yet fear no one. Something I learned the hard way through years of bowling tournaments. Uh - wasn't me who made that "penetration" comment.......
