OK it’s been a while since I've posted a teaser so I thought I’d have a look at one of my plays in a tourney from last night over at blackjack21.com. The situation is this: Penultimate hand, I’m acting 2nd. BR1 - 2862.50 bet 100 BR2 (Me) – 1900 bet 1000 (max) Don’t conern yourselves on whether my bet was correct at this stage (To split your BR or not to split your BR?) I’m more interested in what happens next. BR1 – 10,5 BR2 – 7,8 Dealer – A Insurance is offered, no takers, no dealer BJ. BR1 – Surrenders BR2 - ???? What should I do? My post game analysis of the situation was quite interesting, lets see what you guys think. Cheers Reachy
Surrendering now means you must have a full swing result on the next hand, for only a 13% or so chance of winning the round. I'd rather take my shot now, even though 15vA is a pretty bad hand. Losing either a single or double bet both take you out of the match altogether. I double all-in here. I have a 22% chance of taking a $987.50 lead, and another 6 or 7% chance of pushing. If I win the double, I'll bet anything between $915 and $985 on the final hand.
Guess what? I surrendered I did win the game as well, but I was pretty sure I'd made the wrong decision when I hit that surrender button. When I analysed it more closely later I realised that doubling was the best thing to do. If I'd stood on the 15 I'd estimated my chances of winning overall at over 13%. That's 16.7% (dealer bust on an Ace on this hand) x 81% (my chance of winning final hand with a lead, acting last) = 13.5% If I'd doubled 15 my chances of taking it down are 19.9% = 22.2% (chance of beating dealer this hand) x 86% (chance of winning final hand with a near max bet lead, acting last) + 6.4% (chance of a push this hand) x 12% (swing on final hand) And as Ken said, 12% chance of winning final hand if I surrender this hand. Since doubling and winning gives you a near max bet lead over your opponent and therefore about another 5% over them, and doubling and losing is no worse than hitting and losing, doubling is obviously better than hitting. Still a bit rusty after my recent hibernation... Cheers Reachy
