Who made biggest mistake

Here is the situation. Last hand of the round.

BR1 - $940 - Bet $300 - 9,3
BR2(me) - $520 - Bet $260 - 10,9
*BR3 - $280, Bet $280 - Unknown
BR4 - $300, Bet $300 - Unknown
Dealer - 9

BR3 and BR4 both busted out.

BR1 doubled for $300 and caught an 8 for 20. I had 3 choices(H, DD or S), chose the only one that gave me no chance of winning. I was considering DD but for some reason unkown to me at this time I chickened out and stood on 19. I realize now the best choice would've been to just hit and try to get 21.

The dealer had a 10 down giving me a push and BR1 a victory. That left me with $520 and BR1 with $1540. I did ask to see the next card and it was a K so I would've busted anyway but since I couldn't win by standing there was nothing to lose taking the hit.

BR1 also made an error though, If he would have caught a 6 or less, it would've basically given me the tournament.

So who made the biggest mistake?

 

I think BR1 made biggest mistake

BR1 made a huge mistake by doubling and thereby opening the door for you to win. He got LUCKY by getting a very helpful card. Had he just hit he would have had $640 at the worst which means you would have to win your bet to win the table, whereas doubling leaves him with only $340 if he loses his bet and now you can win by pushing which seems pretty likely given the cards dealt.
By standing, as you pointed out you have guaranteed that you can't win.

If you hit, you have about a 7.7% chance of getting a 2 for 21 or less than .5% chance of getting 2 aces, so let's say 8% chance of getting to 21. Now you still need dealer to get 20 or 21 to win which will occur about 18% of the time with a 9 showing so your chance of winning is approximately 1.4% (8% * 18%).

If you surrender, you are left with $390. You need dealer to hit 21 which will happen about 6% of time and opponent will be left with $340.

 

Good thing to remember, but this tournament doesn't allow surrender.

 

Mrbill
Johng needs to get a grip what bigger mistake can one make than locking one self out. All the other %s he alluded to while being fairly accuate do
not answer the real question which is what should 1st money do and why

The Ghost
Dont try and wing this one Johng because I have probably forgot more about BJTs than you will ever know.

 

Look in the mirror

You answered your own question. There was nothing to be gained by standing. And, nothing to be gained by taking second place.

The wasn't much hope for you by hitting, but you needed to give it a shot.

 

Ghost

Ghost, rather than tell me to get a grip, why don't you add insight since you have so much experience.

I agree locking oneself out is a big mistake, however, unless I am wrong I think the chance of succeeding is less than 1.5%, so this mistake cost 1.5% of the value of a win.

BR1 doubling does absolutely nothing as a single bet win will end with a bankroll higher than Bill can attain - so why put extra dollars at risk. With dealer showing a 9 about 35% of the time dealer will have 19 and Bill will push. BR1 needs 7, 8 or 9 to win/push against dealer 19 (about 23% chance) and thus BR1 will lose about 27% (35% * 77%) of the time against dealer 19.

Add in the other possibilities of losing against the other dealer hands and I think the over all chances of losing are about 60% of the time.

Contrast this with BR1 just standing on the 12 and only a dealer 17 or 18 would cause BR1 to lose due to a swing. I think the odds of a dealer 17 or 18 when dealer has a 9 showing is about 23%.

So BR1 loses 37% more by doubling than standing and I stand by more original premise that BR1 made a bigger mistake. Please show me my error if I am wrong!

 

Yes, I realize given the information at the time I made the choice, there's no question where the big mistake was. But I wanted to learn from BR1's mistake also.

 

johng

Well excuse me did'nt mean to bruise your ego and I do have more experience than you can imagine. If you believe that giving yourself a 100% chance to lose is not the biggest mistake you can make then you really do need to get a grip. Never said that DD did anything for him,although it does, and never suggested that He put "extra dollars at risk" and please stop repeating the obvious along with #s Revere among others have printed over 40 yrs ago rather boring. You are so far off on you 37% that I am not even going there(small hint 1st money still fav. even if DD). By the way curious as to why you did not answer the "real Question" remember Johng "what should 1st money have done and why Hello and the answer is you do not have a clue sorry.

 

Help me understand

What does DD do for BR1?

If real question is what should BR1 have done, I think I already answered that BR1 should have stayed on 12 as only dealer 17 and 18 could cause loss.

 

Ghost

I'm not even going to go into my opinion of whether you or johng are correct in you'r differing options of how to play the hand. What I will say is I'm not impressed with your statements about johng needing to get a grip and your lack of humility about your BJ tournament achievments, if you truely belive you are the best BJ tournament player in the world, empty your wallet, pin your ears back and prove it. I think this forum was developed to share knowledge without trying to humiliate and insult others in the derogatory manner you felt to use. I presume you won't see this post until Tuesday since with your credientals I assume you are at the Vegas $1,000,000 Hilton tournament buying champagne with your winnings

 

Johng

First of all since your going humble on me I want to apologize for my rude language but as you probably know humility is the key to the learning process Here we go If you can find out what the m/m bets were we can analyze the hand and the bet, but for now we can use what we have. When you state that "br1 should have stayed on 12 as only dealer 17 and 18 could cause loss" this statement is not true unless you add "if nothing changes". And it is incomplete because it does not explain the results of alternative options. #1 what are the results of hitting and to do this you have to evaluate the results of each card if you do you will find that hitting could be preferable to stand, not to say that it is but could be and remember every outcome must be calculated on if nothing changes or if things do change. By the way you will have to work for the answers I won't give them to you trust me. And also i am going just so far with this because i do plan on a book before end of year. So your Q is what are the results if he hits. DD could do alot for him get to that later. Hint if he dd he is still the Fav.

 

rookie

Never said "I was the best BJ tournament player in the world" in fact I know I am not. I think Johng is big enough to defend himself sounds like your the one who needs his ears pined back. At least Johng is trying to learn which is more than I can say for you ROOKIE

 

Percentages

Ok, I see where my mistake for 60% chance of losing match on DD was. I think the percentagesfor the chance of winning are approximately:
DD: 51%
H until 17: 43%
H until 18: 40%
Stand: 77%

I guess we can agree to disagree on whether it is worse to make mistake that takes chance of winning from 1% to ZERO or from 77% to 51%.

For the most part, the nature of this board has always been to discuss the game and for all of us to gain better understanding. I am pretty new to tournaments and my original answer may have been off the cuff, however, Ghost, you are a new poster and the spirit of your original comments definitely caught me and probably others off-guard.

Perhaps one of the resident experts here will weigh in after they are finishing winning the Hilton $$.

 

Johng

Thank you for your commentary shows lots of class and PR skills
We have long way to go on this so lets try step by step. How did you get DD=51%. Remember i am not saying that any option at this point is correct or incorrect in case your more experienced resident(s) weight in (notice did not use experts because experts they are not. Very few real experts at this business and by the way they won't win the Hilton because that one takes lot of skill with sucker mentality which very few have.

 

More discussion on the original question

This thread kind of got sidetracked by "The Ghost".

I'd like a few more comments on the original question in the post.

First the betting(min $5, max $300)
1) BR1 had $940, bet $300
2) BR2(Me) had $520, bet $260. I had last bet.

My only hope at this point was to win my hand and hope my opponent didn't.
$125 was enough to give me the swing.
$215 would've given me the win if my opponent pushed and I won.
$260 was half my stake and would allow for a split.

I went with $260 because it was the max that would still allow me to split. Not that it matters because if my opponent wins then I could not catch him.

For my oppenent I think the best best would be $105 - $115. That stays ahead of my max bet and shuts me out with a win. It would've taken the swing away from me. I can't think of any reason to bet otherwise.

Now for the play
1) BR1 had 12, doubled and got an 8
2) I had 19 and stood.
3) Dealer had a 9 with a 10 down.

Given the situation at the time, standing was the same as giving up. There was no result that would've given me the round.

Now looking at my opponents play. He has the following choices
1) Stand with his 12.
2) Hit to 20.
3) Double

I never would've doubled on that given that there are only 2 cards that would help. Plus the extra money allows me a win with a push. The only question I have is would standing or hitting to 20 be the best. At the time I thought hitting to 20 would be the best, but standing is appealing also since it removes the chance of busting and still forces me to win my hand.