Winstar Got Smart.... LOL

Blackjack Friends:

The GOOD NEWS is that WindStar is a go....

The BAD NEWS is that you've got to give them 20 hours of play at the tables to qualify! LOL

Check out the Event Calendar for the latest. You heard it first from "The Skipper" right here. If you're even slightly interested in trying to qualify for this thing, do the initial math. Twenty hours at the tables with approximately 50 hands per hour gives you 1000 hands at $.50 per hand. That's $500 alone just in ANTE FEES for the Tribe. This doesn't include any losses you might incur.

Good luck and great cards to those of you crazy enough to waste your money on this VERY BAD EXPECTED VALUE (EV) EVENT!!

Make it a great day all! Off to the Hilton for their $100,000 Pai Gow Tourney. Hope to see many of you there. Hopeing for a "Final" finish in this one verses the "Semi-Final" finish I had in the big BJ Event they had last week. So close, yet so far away....

Skipper :cheers:

 

Yes indeed, take your own advice and "DO THE INITIAL MATH".

With a $10 flat bet the expected loss is $0.05 (5 cants) per hand ($10 x .005).
The ante is $0.50
So each hand costs $0.55 ($0.05 + $0.50)
For 1,000 hands that's a total cost $550 (1,000 x $0.55)​

The calendar post payout numbers do not add up to the total prize pool. Also, details on the wildcards are non existent. So the total value of the prizes and number of contestants cannot be accurately ascertained. Which means the SV (Seat Value) cannot be accurately calculated. However "best guess" calculations show the seat value in excess of $1,000 (about 400 players competing for about $500,000). So now we have:

COST = $550
SEAT VALUE = $1,000+​

So your "VERY BAD EXPECTED VALUE (EV) EVENT" is far for the truth and we did indeed hear "it first from "The Skipper" right here".

Now I'm not writing to encourage attending this event but rather to inform members that the EV is in the area of 200% which makes for VERY GOOD EV - NOT A VERY BAD EV. Anyone can see this event is geared for locals so if you are within a reasonable driving distance, give it a shot. I certainly would.

 

The Rest of the Story....

toolman1:

You haven't even factored in the money you're "going to lose" at the Tables, unless you're one of those many who fantasize that you're going to walk away with THEIR money after 20 hours or more of play.... LOL. The Casinos love people like you with this particular mindset. Do you think there just might be a reason for the 20-hours of play requirement? Hello!!

Oh well. Be my guest toolman, but you're going to need a whole lot more than your tools in order to make this a personal success. Perhaps you might wanna considering moving to Oklahoma/Texas for a couple of months for the Qualifiers. Let me know how it works out for you....

Skipper :laugh:

 

Calculations....

You're going to play for 20 hours with a flat bet of $10 per hand and lose $50 huh? Very optimistic projections. There's a bridge to nowhere for sale somewhere in Alaska for $50 too! Right on. Again, let me know how it works out.

Skipper:cheers:

 

If you are talking about covering the anti by playing just red chips then yes, it's almost impossible to come out a winner - and I never said a player would come out a overall winner after factoring in the antis. My calculations conceded that the antis are a given expense to be added to the "expected loss" from just playing BJ (excluding the antis).

The exact "expected loss percentage" will of course vary with the quality of the game. I used One Half of One Percent (0.5%) because that's the generally accepted (average if you will) percentage when using strictly basic strategy in a game where the exact rules are not known. That has been verified by billions (maybe trillions) of computer simulations. So you multiply the expected loss percent by the amount wagered of $10,000 (1,000 hands at $10) to arrive at an expected loss of $50 ($10,000 x .005). I thought everyone knew that. Naturally, an "expected loss" is not "actual loss or gain" because sometime you win and sometime you lose. Any given session will virtually never result in the exact "expected loss" but on average you will lose $50 using basic strategy. A beginner's blackjack book by just about any author will verify the accuracy of my statements/calculations or take the short cut and ask Ken or any other respected player on this site.

Since I see I have to explain in simple terms, let me explain another point. I used a $10 flat bet for calculating. If the minimum bet is $5, then the "expected lost" is only $25 (1/2 of $50). If they have $1 tables and playing that will get you into the tournament then the expected lost is only $5 (1/10 of $50). So, playing the lowest bet possible while still being able to qualify for the tournament will mean less loss and increase your already positive EV.

Now, as I said in my original post, add the "expected loss" ($50) to the cost of the antes ($500) to arrive at a expected cost to get into the tournament of $550. The seat value is over $1,000, expected cost is $550, so we arrive at a very respectable (enviable as a matter of fact) EV. By the way that's substantially better than the LV Hilton's EV when you factor in the cost of the Mulligan and your "expected loss" at live BJ trying to get the suited BJ. I'm not criticizing the LV Hilton, just pointing out that the Oklahoma tournament offers better value. So for locals, the Oklahoma tournament is not only a good value, it's a GREAT value!

One thing to keep in mind about my calculations. They are based on information posted to the Calendar as of this date and the calculations will change if the Calendar posting is incorrect. I assumed the 90 or so players in each quarterly got in because they are the first 90 to qualify for each quarterly. If that assumption is correct, those 90 players are the only ones that the positive EV applies to. Those that are only in the "wildcard" drawing may not have a positive EV depending on the number of players in the wildcard drawing.

 

What game is that?

I will guarantee you if you play at Winstar you will loose more than 550.00 based on 1000 hands at 10.00 each with a 50 cent ante AND FLAT BETTING. There is no way that the dealer will win only 5 more hands that you. You are all in a dream world if you think basic strategy is that powerful.

We will use Winstar rules. 6 deck shoe, dealer stand on soft 17, split up to 3 times, double after split, no resplit of aces and surrender. Remember they have a continuous and machine shufflers only.

I believe for 1000 hands the dealer will win 457, you will win 373 and there will be 170 pushes. Than means your endeavor will cost you 1340.00. This will be lower as I do not believe you can play 50 hands an hour.

I believe this is a very bad offer even if you live next door which I do not.

 

winstar rules

By my calculations the house advantage with these rules is 0.36, better than Toolman said. Didn't realize they had surrender. I don't think a losing strategy no matter how small is powerful, however I know the compilers of basic strategy were right and if you do not agree, you shouldn't be playing. The results of double downs, splits, and blackjacks will make up the difference from your calculations. If 100 knowledgable BJT's were to play 1000 hands with these rules, some would lose the $1000 you stated, some would win $1000, but the average of the 100 would be a $536.00 loss. Somehow that doesn't sound like power to me, but a price I would be willing to pay if I lived close.
Toolman beat me to it, We were replying at the same time

 

Let's answer this step by step:

askdick says: There is no way that the dealer will win only 5 more hands that you. You are all in a dream world if you think basic strategy is that powerful.
The dealer will of course win a lot more than 5 hands than you but that is not the only factor that determines the amount of your win or loss. You have to factor in the splits, double downs, and the 50% extra pay when you get a BJ. Playing 1,000 hands you are expected to get 47 BJs (1,000 / 21) alone and that results in $235 (47 x $5) in additional payments to the player. Factoring in all that by mathematical calculation alone is pretty tough that is why computer simulations of billions of hands are used to determine the house advantage.

askdick says: We will use Winstar rules. 6 deck shoe, dealer stand on soft 17, split up to 3 times, double after split, no resplit of aces and surrender.
Actually these are decent rules. Dealer standing on soft 17 and surrender decrease the house advantage which is good for the player. On "The Wizard of Odds" site there is a "Blackjack House Edge Calculator". I entered your rules in there and it came up with a house edge of 0.35%. That translates to an "expected" lost on $10,000 cumulative bets of $35 instead of the $50 I calculated with "general rules". Thanks for point out the rules. That means the EV on the tournament increases!

askdick says: I believe for 1000 hands the dealer will win 457, you will win 373 and there will be 170 pushes.
I have no idea where you got your numbers from but they are far from correct. In general (and this will vary by fractions of a percent depending on the rules): Dealer wins 48%, player wins 44%, pushes are 8%. Once again, this alone does not determine how much money will be won or lost. I'll repeat the pertinent part of my first answer:
You have to factor in the splits, double downs, and the 50% extra pay when you get a BJ. Playing 1,000 hands you are expected to get 47 BJs (1,000 / 21) alone and that results in $235 (47 x $5) in additional payments to the player. Factoring in all that by mathematical calculation alone is pretty tough that is why computer simulations of billions of hands are used to determine the house advantage.

In summary:
Just using the number of hands won or loss cannot give any meaningful win/loss money amounts because splits, double downs, and Blackjack premium payments are not factored in. If the playing rules are as you stated, the EV on this event is better than I originally calculated and even a better value for the locals - thanks again.

PS: I moved this post so it appears after deltaduke's reply. The logical flow of information is better this way. We were replying on-line at the same time.

 

<<Free-roll. 20 hours play to get in. Limited to 90 players
+ 6 wildcards each qualifier.>>

What if 150 players qualify to play in the game you have traveled to try for? Lets say you travel play at 10$ a hand for 20 hours which is at least 3 days if not 5 and qualify luckily losing only 500$. Then you learn you have a layer of players with higher hours and bet level than you and you get skunked. Ouch. What does the casino do about the 96 players if more qualify?

Also, if you do travel and stay it will be so important to get comped for your days of qualifying. If not investment will skyrocket even at a 50% comp rate.

 

Winstar play or don't play?

Is the tournament EV really worth the risk? Sure it is, if you actually get in the tournament and you can qualify for the final event it is a great EV.

I talked to Winstar the other day and found that players will be comped in after 20 hours of play at the regular blackjack tables.

Note that I said blackjack tables, not VP or other machines, or poker. However, other table games will be counted towards your 20 hours.

So is this Winstar worth the trip in for the out of town players? That is up to each individual player. I will have to disagree with some of the projected numbers posted above.

My reason, simple in this type of situation: I would only play at a full table (slow down number of hands dealt per hour). Up at Winstar the majority of the tables will be packed anyway so it will be closer to 30 hands (maybe less) per hour dealt.

Consider that the dealer does have the antes to deal with, which will slow down the flow. You also want to sit at a full table with hand shuffling (not auto shuffler), and take max. restroom breaks allowed (Toolman will appreciate this one...lol). If you're smart about it, the actual number of hands may be lower than the 30 per hand I mentioned.

So at $0.50 per hand ante your total would be $15.00 in antes. Bets over $100 cause the antes to go to $1.00 per hand.

So, what you're having to overcome is at least a guaranteed loss of $300.00 in just antes alone ($15 in antes per hour X 20 hours)

Now for even worse news. Just because you get your 20 hours in doesn't mean you can get in the tournament. That's correct. ONLY the first 90 players get in for sure. After that all remaining players get a wild card. Isn't that nice - a minimum $300 wild card...lol.

Again, if you come play and if you qualify for the final event it will be more than worth it, but for anyone other than locals it is a pretty big gamble and may not be worth the risk.

On the bright side, most of their locals are not seasoned tournament players so there could be a slight advantage in that respect, but with no bet limits, no surrender, and no insurance it takes away some of the better players advantage.

It's your call if you want to come in and play. I will tell you this, last year during the "Split" Winstar was good about picking up the tab for your room and food based on your table play and average.

Am I going to play this year? Depends, I am having another surgery next week so if I was going to try for this month I'd have to go up there this weekend and more importantly I'd need a backer (any takers out there...lol).

It is definitely a locals tournament and as much as I hate the fact this is how they are running it now it actually is a smarter move for the casino. Last year they lost money on the "Split" even when they did get someone to buy a $550 entry chip. They also had very little side play.

Now by running the event this way they are assuring themselves $27,000 in antes each month. That's $300 per player X 90 players and that is just for the 90 that get in, not counting the others who try to be the first 90 but only get a wild card.

80% of all table winnings are what HAVE to be given away by state law (80% to the players pool, 10% to the State, 10% for the casino). They are only allowed to collect that 10% plus the antes as their revenues.

Now for the good news on the tournaments:

1. Only 90 players allowed
2. Top 24 get paid in each event
3. 3 players advance from each table in every round (YES EVERY ROUND, EVEN TO THE FINALS)!

Rules:

Monthly Qualifiers:

$1000 starting bankroll.
$25 minimum bet, NO MAXIMUM bet!

Rounds: 5 total

1A - 8 tables, 48 players - 24 advance

1B - 8 tables, 48 players - 24 advance

2 - 8 tables, 48 players - 24 advance (your in the money and qualify for the August finals).

3 - 4 tables, 24 players - 12 advance

4 - 2 tables, 12 players - 6 advance

5 - 1 table, 6 players

Monthly payouts:

1st = $15,000
2nd = $ 8,000
3rd = $ 7,000
4th = $ 4,000
5th = $ 2,500
6th = $ 1,500
7th - 12th = $1,000 each
13th - 24th = $ 500 each

August Finals:

$2,000 starting bankroll
$25 minimum bet, NO MAXIMUM bet!

Rounds: 5 total

1A - 8 tables, 48 players - 24 advance

1B - 8 tables, 48 players - 24 advance

2 - 8 tables, 48 players - 24 advance

3 - 4 tables, 24 players - 12 advance

4 - 2 tables, 12 players - 6 advance

5 - 1 table, 6 players

August 16th, Finals payouts:

1st = $100,000
2nd = $ 50,000
3rd = $ 25,000
4th = $ 15,000
5th = $ 10,000
6th = $ 5,000
7th - 90th = $500 each

*Note: Once you qualify in any of the monthly events you may not play in any of the other qualifiers.

Also they will be having two drawings for a new Mercedes and $10,000 cash and everyone that played or has a wild card will be included in these August 16th drawings.

 

Read my above post!

ONLY the first 90 players! If you are #91 you're SOL, you only get a wild card for your efforts.

 

Important note!

For those who are wishing to try to qualify for the up coming June 21st event. The qualifying time has already started, so several players have already got a few days head start on you. I would say that anyone that hasn't started getting hours by now are just going to be playing for wild cards for this month.

I just wanted you to be aware before coming in and getting a rude surprise.

I will try and find out when the next qualifying time begins and give you plenty of time to qualify for the next one.

 

Qualifying

IF SOME ONE DID COME TO PLAY FOR THE NEXT TOURNAMENT FOR THE 20HR,S DOES THE TIME ACCUMULATE AND IF YOU PLAY MORE THAN MINIMUM DOES THE TIME DROP SAY TO 10 HR,S AT 25$ HANDS?

 

Winstar

I would like to know how many people try to enter the first qualifier June21. Subtracting 24 locals and a few out of towners each qualifier, that can not enter again, might help.

 

Looks good to me, I think I will try

 

I got the 20 hours last night at midnight. I was the 34th to be in this Sundays. Twenty hours really is too much time for this tournament.

 

Too much time

So what did it cost you in real dollars?

 

I got killed in my second session and it ended up costing me $625, more than I wanted to pay.