Round 5…let’s meet the players: Ken Smith – don’t know him, but I think I heard that he qualified for the Million Dollar Blackjack tournament. Skip Samad – As he enters, he doesn’t exactly understand the concept of posing for the camera, as he keeps pointing to his head and flamboyant button. Jane Gamble – my new blackjack girlfriend. Of course, I’ll never be able to look her up in the phonebook, cause her name’s either a huge coincidence or another damn pseudonym. Richard Munchkin – Yet another Mensan…which gives me the opportunity to brag that I will be presenting at the annual Mensa convention in Vegas over 4th of July, along with Jean Scott, Bob Dancer, and many others. If any of the readers will be there, let me know! Frank DeRocco – Our resident Mohegan Sunni. They mention that he’s an experienced tournament player, so maybe he can hold his own. Hand 1: Skip and Frank start out with a 500 bet, and everyone else bets 100. Skip gets BJ, and boy am I gonna get sick of listening to him talk to the cards by the time this is up. Jane and Richard surrender in tandem, while Frank implies that he’s Tiki’s daddy. Hand 2: Skip bets big again (500) with a dealer ace. Skip takes insurance on the second hand, and not only does Max and the munchkin give him hell but even Matt calls him a sucker. They even pull a little “queer eye†on Skip, making fun of the broach. Tiki busts, and Skip and Frank extend their lead. Melena time, which means it’s time to recommend another sucker bet, Spanish 21. Hand 4: Skip is still betting 500 a hand, despite a 1500 lead. Skip’s sick luck continues as he not only wins what I assume is his 4th in a row (with a double down on hand 3) but nearly correctly calls the hole card. He said it was a 9 of hearts, when it was a 8 of hearts, still causing a dealer bust. Commercials: and the Golden Palace guy is no less annoying the 10th time I see him. Hand 6: Skip is still betting big, up 2000 on the pack, but he’s forced to surrender while the 100 bettors get monster hands. Hand 7: And Max points out that we could play the game by sonar in figuring that the louder players are also the bigger bettors. Frank gets another beautiful hit, and Tiki gets another bust. Hand 8: Skip is 1300-3000 up on the field, so obviously, it’s time to raise his bet, quoting the wrong network, saying “The price of poker just went upâ€, to which Matt says, “You’re playing blackjack, Skipper!†Jane splits and resplits 7s to get 3 bad hands. Frank make his bad hand worse by hit his 13 vs. 4 and his luck doesn’t bail him out, as he busts, to the jeers of the commentators. And even better, Matt declares an E-5 as the 3rd baseman causes the dealer to hit to 20, costing Skip his biggest bet. Melena blabs on about the Mohegan symbolism. Did she say that the earth was formed on the back of a turtle? Hand 11: And my girlfriend has put herself in a 4400 hole with a couple of 1200 losses. Now that Skip has settled down and bet 100, Jane bets 2200. Max says she’s trying to get back within a big bet of the lead, but she was already within a big bet of the lead. Jane gets a nice hit to 20, Richard hits to 19, and points out to “Scooter†that that’s how it’s done. Tiki hits to 18, and Jane is back in the pack, but not in the lead. Hand 12: Skip doesn’t like only having 100 on the line, so he’s back to 700 bets. Jane, meanwhile, doesn’t want to push her luck, so she’s back to the minimum. Frank bets 900 and gets a 14 and busts. All is right with the world as Skip loses, while Richard and Kenny win. Hand 13: Kenny brings out a 500 bet, encouraging Skip to bet 1500, lest he look like a wimp. Kenny gets BJ on his first bet over 100, while Skip get a 14. Frank splits his 20, and Max actually gives him credit for trying to get the lead back on Kenny. But it backfires, as once again, Frank turns a dealer bust into what was this time a dealer 21, putting our hero, Ken Smith in the lead by 1500. Melena talks to Frank’s wife, who is just happy for her husband that he’s having a good time. It’s not like the high roller BJ player ever gets the family in financial trouble. Hand 16: Kenny still has a 1300 lead, but Skip lost his nerve and is betting 100. Frank, down 4000 is betting 500. Kenny surrenders, which gives Ken’s disembodied head the chance to discuss the “Bait and Switch†move, discussed recently on this site. The dealer busts, saving Frank from yet another BS mistake, not surrendering his 15. Hand 17: Frank bets 1000, while everyone else bets 100. Frank doesn’t double A6 vs a 3, getting the kind “unconventional†label from Max. Ken double’s his 11, but loses (only 200, though) Hand 22: During the break, Skip and Jane have dropped 3000 off of the lead, with Richard and Frank 1000 off of the lead. Skip bets 2500, 1/3 of his stack, and enough for 2nd, but not enough for the lead. Max gives him grief for not betting enough to take the lead, but in this case, I’m not sure it’s so bad. Jane makes a little more questionable 2000 bet. If she wants to make a medium bet, she shouldn’t do it while Skip made a bigger one. Kenny thinks about a big bet, but since no one is trying to pass him, he correctly determines that a 100 bet will suffice. Skip gets a 16, while Jane pulls a 14 against an 8. Skip draws to 17, while Jane busts. The dealer busts, and Star Trek’s “Q†is up making noise again in a tie for 2nd. Hand 23: Jane, down to 5650 makes a good max bet to attempt to get within 50 of the lead. Kenny stays with a min bet, and Skip takes the opportunity to try for the lead (though 2500 is a bit of an overbet, despite the desire for breathing room). Jane gets 14 vs a 7, while Skip pulls a 19. Matt gives us the understatement of the day, saying that “This could be a make or break hand for herâ€, but sadly, she busts. Skip’s looking good until the dealer turns over a 3 in the hole, which gives the chipmunk…I mean the munchkin a chance to deride him when the dealer hits to 20. And if a blackjack player can be on tilt, Skip seems to be channeling Phil Hellmuth. Hand 24: Skip max bets 5000, while Jane wants to sneak into 4th place by betting 400 of her 650. I don’t like the bet at all, and she didn’t learn from week 1 that if she does get on a roll with plenty of double-up time left, that extra 250 could cost her thousands. I think Frank wants to hit 16 vs. 6 to mess up the table, but he gets a hold of his senses and stands. Skip turns his 7 into 14, and the dealer puts him and Jane on the floor with a 20. Hand 25: Now both Skip and Jane are playing the last place shuffle, as Skip bets 2200 of his 2500 and Jane bets 150 of her 250, and if Jane as gone this far, she might as well continue. But here you see the folly of her bet. She bet 400 last hand instead of 650 for just such a scenario, and now that it worked, Skip is just going to hold back a little bit more. Meanwhile, Frank is at 9800 and bets 800 just enough to take the lead. Kenny, at 10500, bets 1000 to shadow Frank, and Richard bets 100 of his 9600 looking to back into the low. Frank doubles his 9 against the 6, but the dealer hits to 21, putting Richard in a tie for the lead and and crippling Skip while kicking Jane while she’s down for good measure. During the break, Jane busted out, and during the interview, Melena doesn’t know how to handle an interviewee that she can’t flirt with. Hand 27: Now that Jane busted out, Skip can go all-in for 300, but it’s too late now. Richard and Kenny are tied with 9400 and Richard chooses to bet 1250 (half of the lead on Frank?). Frank bets 2000 of 7200 (I think a max bet is better) and Kenny slips into the low with a 1150 bet. Everyone gets stiffs or 17s, but the dealer busts, putting Richard in a $100 lead. Hand 28: This time, Richard wants the low again, so he bets 100 of 10650. Frank goes high with 2000 of 9200. Kenny thought he matched Richard, but instead he was slightly behind, so he goes over the top of Richard and Frank, betting 850 of his 105550. Oh, and if anyone is still paying attention to Skippy, he’s all in again for 600. Richard doubles 11 v 10, and Frank and Kenny get to 18 and 17. I like that Ken seems to take his time on the obvious plays, looking for free card situations. The dealer hits to 20, solitifying the Munchkin’s lead and knocking Skippy out. Continued in the next post...
Episode 5...the last hands Hand 29 Kenny 9700 Richard 10450 *Frank 7200 Frank rightly bets the max, which would put him at 12200. Kenny can bet 2600 (or 2650), which gives him the lead if he wins and Frank does no double, or he can bet 4800 to cover Frank’s double. But if he bets 4800, Richard could lock them both out with a min bet and a dealer win, so he makes the safer 2650 bet. Richard bets 2100. It’s just enough to beat both of them if they all win, but he could have safely bet another 500 or so, and be able to cover Kenny’s double with his own. As it stands, Kenny can double down for the sure lead. Kenny 7050 2650 A5 Dealer: 8 Richard 8350 2100 19 *Frank 2200 5000 16 Frank considers his options. All win or all lose, he’ll still be in 3rd. Max points out that a double might be right here, and he may have a point, as it would force the others to double or risk losing first. However, Frank just hits to 17. Kenny, who was begging for a chance to double makes a great decision, doubling here. With Richard’s 19, Kenny would need to hit to 20 or 21 to even have a fighting chance in the last hand. With a double, he can buy the lead cheaply. With the 8 up, the dealer flips another 8 and busts. Frank is making a lot of noice, but does he realize that he’s still in last? Lost in the noise is Ken’s quiet realization that he has moved into first place. Hand 30: *Kenny 12750 Richard 12550 Frank 12200 And now the hand becomes a textbook final hand. In fact, for those reading along in Wong, it is Example #2. And as I flip to Wong, I notice that Kenny has made the wrong bet by betting the max. This is because Richard has the chance to double after him (Curt’s Revenge), thus dropping his odds from .44 to .3. According to Wong (and I don’t think surrender helps him here), by going low here, his chances are .42, but Max doesn’t notice that. Richard max bets as well, and as Max points out, he could have had the same effect with a slightly smaller bet. Meanwhile, Frank was handed the low on a silver platter, but he also bets the max, truly hurting his chances. Kenny’s big bet is looking much better now. *Kenny 7750 13 Dealer: 3 Richard 7550 6 Frank 7200 15 Kenny has a tough choice here. By Kenny doubling, he effectively takes the double play out of Richard and Frank’s hand. The good news is that the double card is face down, so Richard can’t see what he needs to win or if he needs anything at all. However, if Kenny does not double, Richard is forced to, and the value of his 6 is useless. By doubling, Richard can play his 6 normally, and has a much better chance of getting a made hand. Second of all, Kenny’s card is virtually irrelevant to Richard. If Kenny has busted, it makes no difference what Richard does (assuming Richard doesn’t double). If Kenny has an eventual winner, it again makes no difference. Therefore, Richard can now put Kenny out of his mind and play heads up against Frank. On the other hand, if Kenny just stays, then Richard doubles down and Frank can surrender and Kenny is locked out. I will leave it to future commentary to decide what is right here. Richard does come to the realization above and just hits his 6 to 16 and stays. Frank’s only shot to win now is to surrender, and remarkably, he figures it out, even though he is doubting his own play. The dealer busts to burst Frank’s bubble, but then Tiki flips over Ken’s ace for Ken’s win. Congratulations, Kenny! Good luck against Spenny.
I'll offer a few insights that you may find interesting from my round: Error #1: On Hand 25, I have 10500, betting behind Frankie with 9800, but ahead of Munchkin with 9600. Frankie bet $800, and I wanted to cover his possible double, since I could do so without undue risk. My mistake was not thinking about Munchkin's play behind me. Munchkin had bet $100 on every hand, so I expected him to do the same now. By betting $1000, I covered a possible double by Frankie and would still have a $100 lead if he won a double and I won a single bet. A better bet, which I realized just after placing my bet, was $950. That covers a Frankie double by $50, but doesn't risk ending up in a tie with Munchkin if we all lose. You'll notice a guarded smile on my face after Frankie doubles, where I was glad that I bet enough to cover it, but I was still worried about being tied with Munchkin if we lose, which is what happened. Error #2: Hand 27, I miscount Munchkin's bet. It was a small stack of chips, but I misread it. Making matters worse was the fact that Tiki announced the bet amounts after they were placed. Apparently, I was too busy thinking to hear her. Had I realized my error during the hand, I may well have chosen to double. I'll have to look at the tape to see, since I don't remember the cards. After the hand, when I recounted Munchkin's stack and discovered a discrepancy, I learned of my error. On hand 30, I'll have to give more thought to the idea of taking the low here. However, if there's a reasonable chance that your opponents may max-bet behind you, there's no doubt my bet was correct. But those bets were not what I expected, so I'll have to think a bit about whether $5000 was an error here. My big question: What about the double on hand 30? I can't stand, for the reasons toonces points out. Richard will double, Frank will surrender, and I can't win. If I'm going to risk busting by hitting, I may as well double. But, there's one other choice. What about surrender here? I ran a few numbers yesterday that may be informative. Doubling 13v3 in this game will win 33.1% of the time, and push 4.8% of the time. It's difficult to assess how often a push will suffice for me, so we'll assume half the time. That gives the double a 35.5% chance of me winning the table. How often will a surrender win for me here? If I surrender and either of the players behind me pushes or wins, I lose. I don't have a convenient way of assessing my chances here. I do know that when I made my decision, I would have guessed that the double was stronger than 35.5%.
Congrats Congrats Ken on your win and I wish you the best of luck in the finals!(even though they have already taken place!) As if it wasn't exciting enough to watch BJ on tv, it makes it even cooler to know some of the players involved(Ken Smith, the MIT guys, etc...) makes it much more exciting to watch.
Nicely done, Ken. I loved that your closing interview was an essay about the last several hands. I have little doubt that Melena has no idea what you were talking about. On hand 25, I'm not sure why you wanted to match Munchkin's bet. I thought your bet was about right. On hand 30, keep in mind that your double resulted in essentially a 33% chance of first, but a 65% chance of last. I would think that if the probability of winning with surrender is below 35%, the EV for second place would make up for it.
Definitely true. I'm just glad I didn't come off looking like a complete idiot. Hand 27 actually. In a tournament without surrender available, I agree. But with surrender, there are two ways you can "break the tie" if you bet-match while playing after the opponent. If your opponent busts, you surrender anything except a blackjack. If he has a weak hand, you might also surrender. If he has a strong hand, you can double. And, if all else fails, you can play to correlate and still be tied afterwards. I'll be playing after Munchkin again on the next hand, so I'll have another opportunity to maneuver as needed. Yes, I still don't know the right answer. But I'll also admit that I discounted the EV of second place, and would have willingly given up EV to increase the chances of finishing first. That's a quirk I'm sometimes guilty of in other arenas as well, but even more so on TV.
Congratulations Ken This may be the first round where the best player won the table. You appeared to have a routine round until the final hand. My thoughts on it... I agree with your bet based on the reasons you've already given. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be any "tricks" at your disposal here. I was quite surprised by Munchkin not taking the low. His play to this point had been relatively solid. No surprise in Frank's bet. Once the cards were dealt, I immediately assumed you would surrender. When you didn't, I had to wonder why. I must admit it took me several minutes to realize your predicament... if you play the hand, you must double or be locked out. I would have surrendered based on the info toonces has already given. Congrats on going for the win, and getting it.
Yep, should've bet $100 After further consideration (and a fresh look at Wong's example 2!), I agree with toonces that I should have taken first low on the final hand, with a $100 bet. I don't clearly recall the thought process of choosing between $100 and $5000, but I can reconstruct how I would commonly make that choice. In many events, I'd bet $5000 without hesitation, because there's a decent chance of inexperienced players behind me also betting the max. Also, if you add a third opponent, the bigger bet becomes better. But here, I figured the chances of both players matching my bet was very low. After they did, I made a comment of something like "I couldn't have made better bets myself", meaning bets in my favor not theirs. I expected to hear that on the final edit, but it was cut. So, in this case, my ill-considered choice of betting big got the ultimate reward of first high and first low. In considering Munch's $5000 bet, I tried to understand how he might have rationalized it. The only thing I can come up with is this: He'll need to bet $4550 or less to avoid a surrender problem from me. That leaves Frankie with a max-bet high over him as well, which may have influenced his decision. It shouldn't have, but perhaps it did. Feel free to chime in if you're lurking, Richard. So, I'm definitely up to 3 errors in my play now, with the surrender vs double decision still in the balance. What can I say? It's a tough game. That's why I like playing it.
numbers, numbers... Good job, Ken! Congratulations, deserved victory. I'd like to consider the last hand: Ken $12,750* Richard $12,550 Frank $12,200 Let's find out what would be the best answer for Ken's Max bet. Richard can take "low" by betting $300, and Frank must bet big, for example $4,000 (three way split etc.). Now Ken must: 1) Win single bet vs Frank doesn't win double or doesn't get BJ 2) Win double vs Frank doesn't win triple 3) Push vs none of others win the hand Theoretically it's hard to calculate the exact probability of Ken's advancing but we can estimate it from the top with reasonable accuracy. Suppouse Frank doubles everything when Ken doesn't double (with Frank's BJ Ken would be forced to double) and hits 'til one point more (for Ken's stiff 'til 17) if Ken double and don't bust. Of course that's not the best algorithm, but reasonable one for estimation. Let's consider also that Ken doubles only not-busting hands (soft hands, 11 and less) and splits tens and others. Now soft hands - 15% (including BJ) (T,T) - 9.5% total 4 thru 11 - (1/169 + 2/169 + ... + 8/169) = 36/169 ~21% (6,6), (7,7), (8,8), (9,9) = 4/169 ~2.5% So total we have 48% when Ken doubles of that at least 19% of the time Frank "swings" him. 48 x .19 ~ 9% 52% of the time Ken does not double and lose with 31% against Frank's double. 52 x .31 ~16% So, Frank advances with more than 25% (since we consider less than perfect algorithm for him), Richard advances with at least 48%-12%=36% (12% is including in 25% when Ken loses but Frank advances) 25% x .48 = 12% Finally Ken advances with lell than 100% - 25% - 36% = 39% BY TAKING LOW HE WOULD HAVE AT LEAST 42% OF ADVANCING WHEN NONE OF OTHERS (RICHARD AND FRANK) WIN. As we can see PRACTICALLY Ken did right because of the errors made by opponents. I'm sorry for such a long posting, so more about playing strategy on the last hand later.
Surrender on hand 30 I would think surrender gives Ken around 45% chance of first place. If Ken surrenders, I think Richard's best play is to double down to cover a possible double down by Frank. Richard's chances of winning or pushing against the dealer 3 are ~38% Frank would then have to hit his 15 to at least 17 assuming Richard ended up with a stiff. Of the remaining 62% when the dealer makes a hand, Frank should beat or push the dealer about 1/4 of the time for a ~15% probability of winning. Ken's probability of advancing is 100-38-15 ~ 47%, which is much better than the 35% by doubling down. An interesting side note is that I believe Richard's best play was also to surrender given Ken's double down on 13. His eventual hit and stand on 16 left him with a very small shot at winning. Frank did realize his best play was to surrender, so it looks like he outplayed both Ken and Richard in terms of final hand playing strategy!
You Made Me Feel Smart! Congratulations, Ken! You did a masterful job. I was so glad to see you win. I was waiting in anticipation to see what your bet would be. My instinct, sitting in your position, was to bet the maximum. So, when you put down the $5,000, I felt like a real pro. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to be a winner, if only vicariously.
Howdy Ken, Took me a while to get here for this. I'm working on a film in Alabama. 1st I want to say that I am not a member of Mensa, and wasn't at 15. I made the mistake of telling Max that I once went to a Mensa meeting to try to meet smart women. I was about 25 at the time. At the meeting were 16 men, and one woman who was in her 50s and her weight was much higher than her IQ. 2nd, I have to say that my final bet is a complete embarassment. I knew as soon as I shoved it out that it was a horrible mistake. I should have bet 4600. I thought Ken's play was the best of anyone in the tournament.
Hehehe, And I thought the only goof on the intros was me "making my living" by playing tournaments. Well, that might be an effective dieting plan for me, as I would likely starve! I'm all too familiar with that unpleasant realization of what your bet should be, just after you push another amount into the circle. But, if we throw out that single decision, you played a very solid round, as others here have pointed out. Of course, it turns out that all 3 of us bet wrong on the last hand, which has been a theme of these episodes so far.
Richard, you should know that that is not at all typical of a Mensa meeting. Usually, there are 16 men and 10 women in their 50s with their weight higher than their IQs. Of course, the guys are nothing to wite home about, either -- unlike a young strapping lad like yourself .
Which makes my point against Hollywood Dave and Anthony Curtis. That is, even if you are playing against pros, there is plenty of room to win by just making less mistakes than your opponents than having to resort to "re-writing the book".
Last hand playing Bankroll Bet Hand Ken* $12,750 $5,000 13 vs 3 Richard $12,550 $5,000 6 vs 3 Frank $12,200 $5,000 15 vs 3 1) Ken doubles: Let's find out the best reaction for Richard and Frank. Richard must surrender since he doesn't have first hi but SR gives him first low even if Frank would also surrender his hand. Now it's really interesting to find out Frank's reaction. a) Frank STANDS For Frank to advance Dealer should bust and Ken's double card must be ten value or 9. P adv. = 37.39% x 5/13 = 14.38% b) Frank HITS once To advance Frank (should push vs Ken lose) or (should win vs Ken lose or push): P adv. = (D17 x 1/13 x 8/13 + D18 x 1/13 x 9/13 + D19 x 1/13 x 10/13 + D20 x 1/13 x 11/13 + D21 x 1/13 x 12/13) + (Dbust x 6/13 x 5/13 + D17 x 4/13 x 9/13 + D18 x 3/13 x 10/13 + D19 x 2/13 x 11/13 + D20 x 1/13 x 12/13) = 3.67 + 14.32 ~ 18% c) Frank HITS 'til 17 e.i. if he gets an A for a total of 16 then he hits again. Here we use the same technics as in b) but instead of 1/13 (Frank makes 17, 18, 19, 20, 21) we'll use 1/13 + 1/169 = 8.28% P adv. = 20.67% The intuitive explanation of this result is that for Frank Ken should not win and if Ken has a stiff hand then Dealer has to make at least 17 to bit him - that's where Frank will try to get to avoid losing.(his lose will put him behind Richard's SR). Anyway, as we found out, the best reaction for Frank is hit 'til 17. Now it's easy to calculate that P adv. for Ken is P win + (P push vs Frank lose or push) = 33% + (D17 x 1/13 x .6688 + D18 x 1/13 x .7516 + D19 x 1/13 x .8344 + D20 x 1/13 x .9172 + D21 x 1/13 x 1) = 36.99% ~ 37% So, we have even 37% for Ken to get first place by doubling 13 vs 3. 2) Ken Surrenders: The best reaction for Richard is DOUBLE to avoid Frank's double The best reaction for Frank then is to HIT 'til 17 with Richard's total "stiff" and 'til 18 with Richard's total 17(soft) For Ken now the only positive outcome is when both Richard and Frank lose. For Richard (P lose) = (D17 x 12/13) + D18 + D19 + D20 + D21 = 61.57% For Frank (P lose ) = (12/13 Hit 'til 17 and lose) + (1/13 Hit 'til 18 and lose)= = 12/13 x (D17 x .586 + D18 x .6688 + D19 x .7516 + D20 x .8344 + D21 x .9172) + 1/13 (D17 x .6433 + D18 x .6433 + D19 x .7325 + D20 x .8217 + D21 x .9109) = 43.05 + 3.59 = 46.64% So, here we go 61.57 x .4664 = 28.7% Double is 37% Surrender is 28.7%. Bravo Ken, your intuition didn't let you down!
Ah...but you are treating P(Richard lose) and P(Frank Lose) as independent events when you multiply the probabilities together. In reality, the two events are highly correlated and probably closer to 46.6% than 28.7%
Poor Jane! Jane gets my vote as being the absolute unluckiest player in the tournament. I don't think anyone sitting in her spot could have advanced! Luck is still a big factor in tournaments. Congrats Ken! A truly outstanding performance.
corrections Toonces, thank you for remark. First of all the double card is face down, so Frank has to consider "Stiff" for Richard and Hit 'til 17. Second, when Dealer makes 18 or more the probability for Richard to lose his double equals to 1! So, Dealer has to make a hand (otherwise Richard would win) and then we have the formula: P adv (Ken) = D17 x 12/13 x .586 + D18 x 1 x .6688 + D19 x 1 x .7516 + D20 x 1 x .8344 + D21 x 1 x .9172 = 46,03 ~46% That's why I love this conversations. We all somethimes make unbelivable mistakes. Let's continue the "brain storming" for farther episodes and other Finals (from play by play). My hat's off you.
Richard must surrender since he doesn't have first hi but SR gives him first low even if Frank would also surrender his hand. I disagree with this. I do have first high if: 1. Ken has a 9 or 10 busting him 2. Ken has an A,2,3 and the dealer makes a hand, and I have converted my hand to 17 or better 3. Rare times when Ken makes a hand, I make a better hand and we swing or he pushes I win.
