Last hand, two advance, surrender offered, no secret bets left, bets 500 to 25,000 in increments of 500. ==> BR1 43,750 bet 12,000 You 39,000 bet ? BR3 38,750 BR3 had demonstrated himself to be a strong player throughout this game. Wong's CTS says if you're BR2 betting after BR1 and before BR3, try to get the middle by betting just enough to take the high on BR1. In this case that would be 17,000. None of the examples follow this situation exactly. Furthermore, Wong's CTS does not discuss games in which surrender is allowed. Question: What is your best bet? 17,000? 500? Something else? Would it be different if BR1 made this bet from a lead of 1,000 instead of 4,750?
BR3 will do one of two things to you if you make the big bet. He'll either take the high, with the option to surrender if you get in trouble, or he'll take the low with the double option to get back the high. In either case, he has a pretty strong situation. In addition, your $17,000 bet has an additional problem. It doesn't give you a surrender play if BR1 has trouble. Even if BR1 busts and loses $12K, you can't surrender $17K and stay ahead of him. Because of that, I like a $500 bet here. If the numbers were slightly different, and allowed the surrender play I just described, I would prefer $17K.
Big bet could be okay Monkeysystem, bet of 500 is the best unless you know for sure that BR3 would bet more than your bet, trying to get high on either one of the opponents. The interesting question then would be what bet of more or equal to 17K would motivate BR3 even more to bet high? A winning bet of 22,000 or more covers BR1 getting a bj. Would BR3 fall for a false “opening” and bet 25K if BR2 bet was 24K? Betting 500 by BR2 if the opponents play optimally advances BR2 about 67%. Good playing strategy by BR1 would be push is as good as win, and for BR3 betting enough that BR2 can’t catch him by splits/doubles, and BR3 playing mostly push as bad as loss. Betting 17,000 can have, as Ken has suggested, two responses from BR3. BR3 can bet less than BR2 but retaining chance to overcome him by bj or dd. Optimum play by BR2 becomes interesting and he or she has to hit less often on potentially busting hand, as this gives BR3 automatic advancement by surrendering. Proper play still should give BR2 advancement in the high fifties, about ten percent worse than when betting only 500. If BR3’s response to BR2’s bet of 17,000 or more is equal or higher, then we have a whole another ballgame. BR2 should then surrender hands that have chances of winning (and pushing when BR3 pushes) lesser than BR3 losing and stay on hands that have chances of winning not much worse than BR3 -and BR3 likely not surrendering his hands in hope to beat BR1. These plays are quite tricky and the chance for BR2 to advance should be in the high sixties again, but I would not be surprised if with somewhat suboptimal play by BR3 it would reach 70%. S. Yama
Vindication This situation was the hand I advanced with in the Palms weekly a couple weeks ago. 500 was the bet I made. My thought at the time was that first low is the second best situation you can be in when two out of three advance. The surrender rule was a deterrent to my trying to get second high. Because of the surrender rule the only player with a reasonable chance of getting the middle is the one with last position. If BR1 had bet 9,000 or less I was ready to bet enough to take the high on him by a half chip. I got criticized for my betting decision even though I advanced. There was no harsher critic than myself. My brother who was watching was the only one there who agreed with what I did. I guess I was right after all. BR3 bet 3,000 after me. BR1 stood on a four card 14 against a dealer 8, obviating my need to surrender. The dealer made the hand and eliminated BR1. The surrender rules changes many of the strategies in Wong CTS. It must be time for a new book.... (hint, hint)
