Beware Of The Hilton $1,000,000 - Again

Hilton Sept Qualifier had 12

The Hilton ATTEMPTED to rectify it's August fiasco by advising all players who paid the $2500, that they would announce the prize structure PRIOR to playing the first hand of the first round; AND IF ANY PLAYER WANTED THEIR MONEY BACK, NO PROBLEM.

Amazingly, there were 12 people who paid and played. Most of them were out-of-towners, who had come in for other events (Golden Nugget had it's tournament for $100 entry fee); and 3 said to me, "I am here, I might as well just play." One local said, "Well they have collected a prize fund from the first 3 months of $160,000, so that is why I am playing." [See below as I calculated the prize fund at $151,000 thru the first 3 months].

So 12 people played at 3 tables (effectively they were in the semis). 2 advanced from each table. They picked 1 of the losers in a wild card drawing and 7 played the finals. They played for a top prize of $4100 and an entry into the finals, June 6-8. 2nd thru 4th received their $2500 back and an entry into the finals. 5th received the $2500 back, but no entry, and 6th and 7th still get nothing. They collected $30,000 (no rebuys obviously) and paid out $14,100. The $15,900 will go into the Finals prize fund. [BTW-when I first arrived, they only had 9 players and told me that first place would pay $3100. Therefore they added $333 for each additional player up to the 12].

My calculation of the TOTAL PRIZE FUND for the finals is as follows:

1st qualifier had 25 players with 15 advancing to the 2nd round. I assume all losing 10 players paid $500 for the reentry. They paid out the full $35,000. So they retained $32,500.

2nd qualifier had 39 players with 15 advancing to the 2nd round. I assume all losing 24 players paid $500 for the reentry. They paid out the full $35,000. So they retained $74,500.

3rd qualifier had 24 players with 15 advancing to the 2nd round. I assume all losing 9 players paid $500 for the reentry. They paid out only $20,000. So they retained $44,500.

4th qualifier discussed above, they retained $15,900.

Now let us assume that 12 people with nothing else to do each month and each with a very loose $2500 burning a hole in their "head" decide that a finals pool of $300,000 is worth paying $2500 for a 8.25% chance of adding $1600 to their net worth plus a 33% chance of qualifying for a 1/64 chance of winning, let's say: $250,000. The $250,000 first prize would allow the semi-finalists to get paid $10,000, the quarter-finalists to get paid $$5,000, and the elite 8 to get $1,250. If you made the sweet 16, you would get nothing.
Now, I do believe that there are at least 12 people who would take that big an underlay to have a 1/200 chance of winning $250,000.


THEREFORE, MY ADVICE TO THE HILTON: IF YOU WANT AT LEAST 12 PEOPLE EACH MONTH, YOU SHOULD AT LEAST GUARANTEE A FINALS PRIZE POOL OF $300,000 AND A FIRST PRIZE OF $250,000. Otherwise, you may have only 4 and what do you do then?

 

THIS EVENT CAN PAY !!!​

That would be great to have only 4 players signed up for a given month. If I could predict which month only 3 (or less) signed up, I'd be the 4th. Why you ask? Because it would be positive EV for the final playoff:

With only 4 players, I would have a seat in the final event. My entry fee is $2500 and I get free rooms . Now 64 players at the final event times $2,500 equals $160,000. So as long as the prize pool for the final event is over $160,000, it would be positive EV for me.​

So, if someone can keep an eye out and let me know when only 3 (or less) players are signed up for a monthly event*, I'll be the 4th (or 3rd, or 2nd, or 1st).

:joker: :laugh: :joker: ​

* Let me know by PM (don't want to let the cat out of the bag) when the total signed up is 3 (or less) when there is only 7 days or less before the monthly event. I'll pay $100 commission - that's right, a C NOTE - for this information if I end up going and there are actually 3 or less other players to compete against. This offer is limited to only the first person supplying the information.

 

With 12 players & 250k finals it's an OK deal.

The Hilton actually paid $4600 for 1st.
The Hilton returned $14600 of $30000 collected.
A player can expect to lose $1283.33 ($15400/12) per monthly tournament.
A 64 player tournament with $250k prize fund is worth $3906.25.
The chance of getting to the June finals is worth $3906.25x(4/12)= $1302.08.
A player can expect a return of $2518.75 on a $2500 bet a 100.75% return.
Under these conditions I don't think it should be called an underlay.

 

Be wary of making assumptions

You set yourself up for a bad surprise if you start making assumptions that you have no control over.

Somebody was told that the Hilton will "pay out whatever is in the prize fund at the end of the year". What does that really mean?

I think it is naive to assume that all money paid will go into the "prize fund"d. If you look at the original tournament rules that say that a minimum of 65 are required each month to pay the million, then you know that a lot of the entry fee money is going toward things other than the prize fund.

It is very easy to say that a certain amount of the entry fee goes to pay for the free rooms and the cost of tournament administration and paying the dealers.

It is also a stretch to assume that the rebuy money goes into the prize fund. The Hilton has a history of making rebuy and mulligan money disappear.

The most important thing to remember is that it doesn't matter what they say, what matters is what they do. The only thing that is still in writing are the original rules that say they can do whatever they want. Anything beyond that is just talk and means nothing.

Why would anyone want to get involved with a tournament where they have no idea what the payoff will be? I am very willing to host a tournament for those people. It'll be $1000 entry and I'll tell you the prize money after I figure out how much I decide to skim off for myself.

Does anybody really believe that the tournament will continue if they get 4 or less people in a monthly? How can you have monthlies where you give everybody their money back and let them all qualify? Dream on. If they can't get more than 4 in a monthly, then they'll either drop the tournament, cancel that monthly qualifier, or change the qualification rules to say that only one or two of the four will qualify.

I was the first one and I was right to say that this tournament would not succeed and would not pay the million. Don't be surprised if I am right on this stuff, too.

P.S. - I may be wrong, but I heard the monthly participation numbers were 32, 28, 24, and 12 (not 39 in month two).

 

Hilton

So, we hear again from the famous Johnreynolds, who only posts when he has something negative to day about the Hilton.
Hmmmm...one wonders who JR really is?

 

Enough Said

All I had to do was do a search on your posts. I found an assessment of you from a credible source. Here it is:

February 9th, 2007, 04:52 PM
KenSmith
Administrator Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Hattiesburg, MS
Posts: 2,773



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So Fredguy, how would you classify your own posts here?
So far, everything you've posted has been negative, from criticizing other users, to complaining about the accuracy of the event calendar.
You do seem to like the Hilton, but other than that, you look like a pretty unhappy individual.
__________________
"There's always a better bet."
Video Poker Victory - Everything you need to become a video poker expert.

 

Know one, Don't know one

FredGuy, I've met you once in Laughlin and have no idea who Johnreynolds is but I think you're completely off base. In my opinion after playing numerous LVH events other than the suited BJ tournament you stated you've played I find JR's posts to be accurate and honest posts not critical as you state but rather an honest assessment of his experience/knowledge of LVH events which he is sharing with us.

We should be appreciative of others sharing their personal experience/knowledge so we can make informed decisions not critical personal posts because our possible limited experience/opinion differs.

 

Dang Toolman

I admire yoour commission rates. No wonder you were able to retire from a profitable biddness. I'll hang at the Hilton Tournament "Center" and e-mail, text, phone or telegraph, or even maybe pony express the info to you for that fat C-NOTE. can't get enough of those.

 

Hilton 1 million stuff

Toolman, I'll pay $105.00

 

It is official-THE HILTON $1 Million BJ CLASSIC is CANCELLED

Last night, I received a telephone call from Les Thacker, a casino host at the Hilton and the former 2nd-in-charge at the Hilton Millions. He confirmed that the CLASSIC is officially cancelled. He says a committee at the Hilton has setup a FINALS for Dec 6-7, 2007. All entrants in the 4 qualifiers will be invited and rooms comped. There will be a wild card drawing of all entries who did not qualify. I believe if you played more than once and did not qualify any of the times, you will have a card in the drawing for each time you played. They will draw 16 wild cards and the field of 32 (with the 16 qualifiers) will play a single elimination step-ladder 32-player draw, head-to-head matches. He believes the prize fund is about $157,000. I believe it is over $160,000 and closer to $165,000.

For my thoughts on how and why this happened, read my article in the latest issue of Blackjack Insider, to be published this week.

PS: For all of you who think that John Reynolds and I are naysayers who are hurting the game, you are wrong. We both only have the best interests of the players in mind. I have been preaching honesty and fairness in BJ Tournaments for almost 20 years and have personally been responsible for the success of all 3 Hilton Millions and all the Riviera BJ tournaments from 1994 until they quit. It has cost me dearly, but I still do it.:flame:

 

Tinker has ALWAYS been on the side of the player. His actions are not a detriment to BJ tournaments but rather promote fair play which is all us tournament junkies ask. His actions have indeed, in his words, "cost me dearly, but I still do it" and we should be grateful for his unselfish contributions.