Free money in Michigan

This might be obvious to everybody, but it's perhaps worth pointing out that free bets usually don't return your stake, just your winnings (at least on this side of the pond).

In which case, to get the most value from the rebate you would want to use it to make lots of small, high-variance bets.

 

Yikes! That could certainly make the EV-maximising long shots seem a lot less attractive if it was for the full 5000.

For what it's worth, I've occasionally seen offers over here whose wording made me think a free bet would not be splittable, but, once awarded, it turned out that it was. But these were for tiny amounts, as well as obviously being in a different (UK) market, which maybe has different conventions for these things.

 

MI casinos just increased the number of their live dealer online casino games from 5 to now 8 blackjack games plus the infinite blackjack game. Tables are almost always full except like after 3:00 a.m. until around noon. Doesn't look like the betting limits are coming down anytime soon. If anything most of the tables are now $50 to $100 min. There is at least always one $30 min table, and more very late at night or early in the morning.

I have been doing very well with the online games considering the good bonuses being offered. In fact, at this point in mid Aug I'm having my best year ever with almost all of it due to online play. I had better years by year end, but not at this point in the year.

 

Same here, Midwest Player. If you watch for the bonuses, there is some good positive expectation. For instance, today Draftkings is offering $1 in free 1x playthrough credits for every $10 bet on live blackjack, up to $20 in free credits. I find the live games to be really slow and tedious as you wait for the knuckleheads to split their sixes against dealer 10, but I usually do it on my pc while watching golf or baseball on TV.

 

I was also lucky enough to win one of the monthly blackjack streaks last month at draftkings, ($10,000 in free credits) and a crazy big slot jackpot, so I am a pretty happy michigan blackjack player at the moment

 

Congrats on your winning one of the Draftkings blackjack streaks. Maybe you knocked me out of one of the top spots (about 10 games qualify for the streak). I was in one of the top spots until around the 26th of July and then got knocked out. I didn't even know I was in the top spot until I happened to look one day. I don't remember having a streak as long as it said I had and was a little concerned because sometimes when I'm just messing around I play for small amounts under $5 and you need a $5 min bet to qualify. In the end, it didn't matter as I got knocked out anyway. This month so far my best streak is only 11 hands.

There are ways to improve your chances of continuing a streak if you get up there a ways. Since a push does not break a streak consider taking insurance if a possible dealer blackjack. Avoid taking double downs in some cases. I don't consider doing this until I get a streak of over 8 or 9 hands.

 

If your only goal is to build up a non-losing streak then you should consider never doubling. There are also a few extra hits you should make. Here is the basic strategy for 8D S17 for when you're trying to engineer a win or a push. I use it for strategic purposes in tournaments when anything except a loss is required. It can apply here too.

http://gronbog.org/results/blackjac...one/generated/complete/0.0/p1.X/strategy.html

The reason you split just about everything is that you get a lot of net pushes when splitting. Hitting all 12s and some 13s decreases the frequency of wins and losses and increases the frequency of pushes. Standing on A,6 vs 7 does the same. If you want to increase EV while using this strategy, consider doubling only A,6 vs 3 through 6. In those cases you would be taking only one additional card anyway [Edit: this is incorrect. You could end up with hard 12 or 13 (vs 3) which would benefit from an additional hit]

Somewhere here is a thread discussing my must win and must not lose strategies if you want more insight.

 

Thanks Gronbog, good stuff.

 

I should add something about playing split hands when using this strategy. Reality is that there are additional charts for playing the first hand depending on which rank you split and even more charts for playing the second hand depending on the total of the first hand. It's way too much for any human player to ever memorize. But you can get close to optimal by remembering that your goal is a net push or a net win and you need only win one of the hands in order to generate a net push. With that in mind:

Never double after splitting. In fact, never double at all (despite what I said previously!)

• You're much better off just trying to win or push the first hand. That is, just play the posted strategy on the first hand.
  
• If your first hand looks like a winner, then you definitely should not double or split the second hand.
• Even if your first hand looks like a loser, there is no need to double the second hand. You need only try to win it.
• Note that I'm retracting my advice to double A,6 vs 3-6 on your initial hand for extra EV. You could still end up with hard 12 or 13 which could benefit from an additional hit.

You can hit your second hand to the same total as the first hand with no risk whatsoever.
Why? Because

• if your first hand ends up losing then any second hand totalling less would also lose for a net loss.
• if your first hand ends up pushing, then any second hand totalling less would lose for a net loss.
• if your first hand ends up winning, your second hand is irrelevant even if you bust it.
• Note that the dealer's up card is irrelevant.

Example: You end up with 19 (hard or soft) on your first hand and you have hard 18 on your second. You have a free hit on the second hand which just could make the difference if the dealer ends up with 19 or 20.

If you stand on 16 or less on your first hand, you can hit your second hand to 18 with no risk.
Similar logic applies.

Resplitting should not be necessary
This is because of the considerations above which give you a decent shot at a winning second hand regardless of how the first hand turns out.

Bottom line:
After splitting, play the first hand using the posted strategy, except don't resplit. Then play the second hand as described above.

 

I have retracted by statement above that it's ok to double A,6 vs 3-6 for extra EV. You would end up with hard 12 which benefits from an additional hit or hard 13 vs 3 which also is a hit.

 

I'm glad to see that you guys are being successful in this MI opportunity. If not for my residency "problem" I'd be in on it too. I'm thinking/hoping that it's just a matter of time until my state offers the same.

Billy C

 

Thanks, Bill. When you are in the UP, we will have to walk you thru the Betrivers and Draftkings opening deals. Good for about $350

 

DraftKings buys Golden Nugget's online gaming business for 1.56 billion.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/09/investing/draftkings-golden-nugget-online-gaming/index.html

I like playing the Golden Nugget promotions. They aren't as good as DraftKings or as many, but their promotions are profitable even though not large. Pretty soon if there is a lot of mergers there will be no more competition and all the promotions will dry up. Speaking of promotions drying up, after my last juicy promotion from DraftKings I haven't had any more VIP offers. Maybe they are cutting me off.

 

Same thing happened to me. I think I got cut off from the Draftkings VIP. Things are definitely tightening up. I notice that in the Draftkings live dealer blackjack game, the dealer hits soft 17 now.

 

I think they always did hit soft 17 on the live dealer games. All the casinos (DraftKings, Golden Nugget, BetMGM) offer the same live dealer games with the same dealers and rules. Play where they offer a bonus for live dealer.

Jonny21, I finally got a VIP promotion called the Summer Send Off. Hope you got the offer also. This promotion is a little different than most in that they are offering prizes instead of free credits except for the first tier and top tier. They don't even say what the prizes are, only how much they are worth. I guess I will go for the top tier which is $3,000 in Draft King dollars.
The nice thing about this promotion is they have a leaderboard going at the same time and you can kill two birds with one stone. Chalk up play for the promotion and the leaderboard at the same time. Nice thing about this leaderboard is they have a $5,000 bonus for 10th place, 100th place and 1,000th place. Might be hard to do, but possible.

$3,000 DK DOLLARS
Dollars Wagered / Remaining to Prize:

$500,000 / $0
How it Works:
Play
Prize
$5,000 $100 Free Credits
$25,000 $250 Physical Prize
$50,000 $500 Physical Prize
$100,000 $1,000 Physical Prize
$250,000 $2,000 Physical Prize
$500,000 $3,000 DK Dollars

 

BetMGM has a nice little promotion going on. For every $100 you wager on casino games you get a $10 free sports bet up to a max of 5 free bets. Bet $500 on casino casinos and you get 5 free $10 sports bets. Last week I made my first sports bet on the Packer game. I took the under at 49.5 points and won it. I now have 5 free sports bets from BetMGM and don't know what to bet them on except I want to bet them on football. Any suggestions?

On a side note at DraftKings I had winning streak of 18 but it wasn't enough to take first place. I guess close only counts in horseshoes.

 

Yesterday DraftKings had a VIP promotion giving free $100 sports bets for every $2,500 wagered on casino games up to a max of a $1,000 in free bets. They sure beat MGM's above promotion. Now I have a ton of free bets to place.

 

I was wondering how much contact you vip's have with your hosts and what are some good things to do to keep your name on the welcome mat. I did not get those sports bets promos, but i did get a 15% deposit bonus at draftkings with just a 1X playthrough.
For my part, I have found Draftkings to be by far the best of the online casinos for players. Some of the things I do to try to stay on their good side Are: I never complain if they miss small stuff on the promotions, I always try to place in the middle or so of the leaderboards that they offer, and I compliment the generosity of Draftkings when I exchange emails or texts with my host.

 

Caesars has a nice promotion today. 50% deposit match up to $250. 5x playthrough on slots, 25x on blackjack. I grind thru 5x on divine fortune which has a rtp of 96.6%