"Going Pro:" Is There Such A Thing? Opinions Wanted

Yes Mame!

When I am the one offering the bet I can deside the terms of the wager, if no one wants to play then it's no bet. I am willing to modifying it for this coming week (as I stated in my post) so Joep and me can a get bet between us, but it mainly will stay the same.

My defining luck and skill was just my opinion. Everybody has their own opinion, mine is everybody that enters a BJ tournament has a chance to win "Pro" or not!...LOL

 

I suspect there is a law of diminishing returns with regard to the skill factor -

A complete novice would be at a severe disadvantage to anyone with some degree of experience (though they would still have a healthy chance of winning any given encounter, thanks purely to Lady Luck).

However, they would only be marginally worse off against a top player, many of whose wily skills might only prove useful in very particular (and relatively infrequent) scenarios.

Similarly, the top player versus an 'average' player would have an advantage, but only a small one.

I can't support the above assertions with any concrete evidence, but I notice that doesn't normally stop people around here.


One cautionary note, which may add some perspective to this debate ...

I had my biggest win on Global when I took first place in a Wednesday tournament and netted a cool (for me) $900. This must have been three or four weeks into my TBJ career. Here we are, about two years later, and I've made the final table on two or three more occasions, but never surpassed that early success, despite all I've learned since. (I've also given back the $900, and then some.) :sad:

 

Hoy-Boy--BET

The ingredients, parameters and processing of THIS BET are making it as complicated and dangerous as a rolling meth lab.

It'll have to be held under Marquis de Queensbury rules...no kicking, biting, scratching,unless ther's an itch. And when the clock strikes one, kicking and biting shall be allowed for exactly only one minute.

Now, I don't want to be or sound like a "broke-back, back slider," but my agreement with TX on "THE WINNER" of a BJ tournament, goes to his original proposition statement. As I recall, it was: "In any BJ tournament(not x number) he'll give you 50 pros and take the rest of the field for the winner."

Now obviously, if there are only 60 entrants and 50 are pros, its a stupid bet.

If everyone wants to structure the bet to their particular advantage, then it's not a bet. It's a prestructured advantage outcome for the better with the best skewed rules, overlooked by the loser.

ps: Gamemaster offers some new food for thought. As it applies to generally accepted criterian for "pro." The only way "all" are going to get a definable read on all this is by seeing who are the consistant winners/final table players under UBT point system, or TX's fledging "minor league" tourney's.

Otherwise, we'll still only have GSN to tell us who are the top pros in the country.

 

If you have skill and experience, you will make profit in a long run. I've playing tournament on a consistent basis for over a year now and there is never a month that I don't make a profit. I play BJT about 4 times a week and I notice that the people who make it to the final table are usually the same people and these people, in my opinion, are skilled players.

 

Typical?

But aren't you in a rather unique situation. From your prior posts, you mentioned that the weeklies (maybe more) you play in have a low turnout, entry fee is minimal and the casino kicks in some cash to make the tournaments positive equity. If my recollection of your prior posts is wrong, please correct as needed.

Now don't get me wrong. If you can make a profit every month, the more power to you. It's just that because your situation is so unique, your winnings cannot be looked upon as typical of a seasoned player.

 

darklord

Have you gone "Pro", is BJ your only income, probably not but if are making a profit every month why have'nt you quit your job and gone" pro"?

 

Why ?

 

London Colin and back up:

 

Cow Tipper's Of America

Here is a statement a dear friend of mine and a well respected tournament player some might even call him a "PRO" . He told me one night over dinner as this topic "Luck vs. Skill" was being tossed around over a tossed salad.

" Anyone can win a blackjack tournament that's the luck factor, but over the long run a Skilled-Pro tournament player will win more than their share ,thats just the plain truth "

So luck happens in the short run and skill wins out hands down in the long run and that is proven history, and if you care to look at who the top players are.You will discover that the top "Pro" players accomplishments are head and shoulders above the average ploppie that decides to leave it all to luck.

So Tex take your 2/3 of the field and take them "Cow Tipping" now there is something they have a fair shot of winning at on a regular basis. They just need to locate the sleepy cows.

 

StarBust has it right

If anyone wants to know what a "PRO" tournament players looks like you should all stop by the Starbust tonight and for that matter every tournament banquet as there is usually one, sometimes two tables of "Banned Pros' who have been invited to the banquet as guest of players in the tournament.Some of the players that are still allowed to play even have the nerve to sit with us. For the most part our table is avoided like the PLAGUE.

We usually take a picture of the table for laughs :laugh:

In a side note 80 % of the "Banned Players" are all Starbust Tournament winners. of 60,000 to 100,000. I guess you know where the Starbust opinion of Luck vs. Skill is .

They will take the 1/3 of the players in this bet


Joep

 

Research... and Banned Players?

I'm enjoying the continuing stream of info on this philosophical thread I started--THX all...

Having looked around specifically for info on this, I am starting to see-- on UBT and G-P sites-- evidence that the same folks are rising to final tables. Specifically, members of this site like Ken, Sidekick and you, JoeP, along with others like NicNRic, Scorcho, etc.

With fields commonly well over 50 at UBT.com tournaments, for example, the fact that the same names keep popping up on the final tables provides clear, hard evidence that skill is the major factor. Of course the fact that these same people are all hardcore TBJ junkies (i.e. entering many, many times--some appear not to sleep) clearly increases their odds as well. The "Ploppy Factor" or, on UBT clearly, the "Poker Ploppy Factor" (my personal favorite form of Ploppy) also plays a role here.

Anyway, I am also curious--JoeP--when you write that the "Starbust" has barred players. I assume that these players were barred for AP activity discovered by the store in other non tournament-related play? (i.e. their "other activities" have made them unwelcome for any casino action?) No casino bars players based on their play in tournaments, or do they?

Good Cards--Sabresport (AKA Sabrejack)

 

No Joke

:joker: The SatrBUST :joker: has barred players just on their tournament play ONLY. Sad but TRUE


Joep

 

ramblings.......

Why would you want to mess with success? Just my curious observation.

Isn’t it amazing how some threads get so many people riled up? Since I’ve seen definitions for luck versus skill I’d like to get some other definitions out of the way – what is a professional BJ player?

Hmmmm…. Seems that some aspects apply but others – specific rules, apprenticeship, certificates &/or code of ethics are hazy at best. Sabrejack, I am a novice to TBJ and around there parts I’m one of the new kids on the block.

You are right to notice that some people consistently wind up at those final tables and others only occasionally. The difference? Luck….Skill…..a combination of both maybe. As for me I’ll take the skill factor over the luck part myself.

However there are other factors like persistence, dedication, patience and yes Wisdom. Not only KNOWING what to do but WHEN to do it. Now back to your original question, can you make a living at TBJ? My .02 on the subject is this – probably not. WHY?

The overhead and limited availability of BJ tourneys is the limiting factor. Can you make a living just playing BJ? Depends on who you ask and what your lifestyle is. There is an old adage that I learned a long time ago that, while not politically correct, I have found to be very true: Those that can do – do. Those who can’t do – teach. Those who can’t teach – administrate. [For a little humor you add those who can’t administrate – work for the government!]

Most of the “professional” (by that I mean people who make over 50% of their income via blackjack/poker/gambling) fly low, under the radar. Why bring on the heat? If I was the world’s best BJ tourney player (in my dreams and not even close) why should I tell everyone my system and get kicked from the top of the hill? It’s only human nature to keep those hidden talents/secrets closed – only to be passed to the next generation for posterity (i.e., apprentice)

Having said that I truly believe that some of the people that are in the “professional” category have found a “calling” here and out of their love for the “profession” give out tips/help/advice, etc. as a means of giving back from what they’ve received. I personally find that very noble and I am very thankful for that.
Tourney BJ is fun, stimulating and exciting. I hope that UBT blows it up and millions of people jump on the bandwagon. Personally I’ll now get off my soapbox and stick with the adage: Those that can do…….

 

New research to add...

OK, so it's a small sample size, and variance could certainly be playing a role here... but I now have generated some hard data based on my own experiences that adds to answers above re the Skill vs. Luck question.

The Executive Summary? SKILL shapes up as playing the predominant role.

My data? Over the last two weeks, I've played in 15 scheduled tournaments at UB.com. Of those 15, I have reached a final table (i.e. the money) 6 times, or 40%. If I subtract the freeroll tourney it took me to get used to the elimination format, that's 6 of 14 for a 43% FT rate. I'd say fields ranged from 30-70.

Clearly some freewheeling poker ploppies were in there to help anyone with a modicum of talent, but lots of others I see with good track records have been there as well. Heck, me and some Blackjack compadres even "defeated" Annie Duke one night (pretty sure it was, in fact, the real Annie). Thought we'd all get free trips to Aruba off that or something, but no...

This could still be a streak, clearly. I'll be interested to look at my "performance" over 50, 100 or more such tourneys and see. I feel pretty sure my FT% will fall, but for now, based on the thoughts offered on this thread and my own sliver of experience, I feel that work on developing one's game clearly pays off.

I've enjoyed playing many from this site I see appearing around me at UB.com. Now if I could just figure out everyone from this site's UB handle--many I know but many I don't!

Good cards--Sabresport (AKA Sabrejack)

 

Final Words

In this never ending Saga between Tex and I will end it with this quote that a well known and respected tournament player sent me . This speaks volumes for this debate. I thank him for allowing me to use it.......

"Luck happens when
an opportunity meets the well prepared"



Joep

 

Skill vs. Luck

Yep I agree, there is also another saying.....

"Even a blind squirrel finds an accorn once in a while",

both saying seem to agree LUCK is involved in both if your skilled or not.

 

How about this quote?

True luck consists not in holding the best of the cards at the table;
luckiest is he who knows just when to rise and go home.
John Hay, Distichs, latter 19th century
US author & politician (1838 - 1905)

 

"Know when to hold them, know when to fold them"

Kenny Rogers, US country music singer

 

Here is a poll of what currently 797 Blackjack Tournament Players feel about this subject


Which of the following factors most in winning Elimination Blackjack?
TOTAL VOTES: 797

67 % Skill
22 % Luck
5 % Bluffing
6 % Chip counting

Looks pretty convincing what the majority thinks

Joep