"Going Pro:" Is There Such A Thing? Opinions Wanted

Harsh

Barney - I haven't seen any comments from you in HDs "smack my b***h up" forum. You should get over there and let loose on him ! I think he likes it. I don't think Ken E has one but you could always kick one off!! I didn't know you felt so strongly.

Cheers

Reachy

 

Reach

I might take you up on that.
B

 

Failure to communicate!

While this will be missed by the Arubaites, for one last time of my own......

As a possible "other post."

I do not think luck is better than skill. Though, I'd rather be lucky than good.

I do believe skill and knowledge in the long run win out.

But to the degree it wins out is demonstrated in every endeavor. Call it right place and right time or location, location, location.

There are thousands of more talented actors playing community theaters, traveling shows, et all, than the mega hyped "stars" of today.

One poster on this site, in posts and a highlighted interview reveals how turning a go no where attempt at acting "stardom" was parlayed into a BJ personality, just when TV came along. Now, having the prior experience and knowledge of one industry and gaining expertise in another combined for the perfect storm. Heck, there it is. The perfect storm. Try using that BJ knowledge in the 70's in Vegas. Or try using that punk rock attitude in Hollywood in the 30's and 40's.

It wasn't total skill that combined both. And at that, one can surely attest to the BJ skill, but doesn't really know what kind of acting talent failed to make an impression in tinsel town, but just happend to be "right" for "puking, REALITY TV"

 

Done deal...

I contacted a sports agent back in August and actually turned Rock-N-Roll Darrell on to the idea as well. I even discussed it with Ken S. I am pretty sure I posted about it a couple of months back (on BJT.com).

Several players just laughed and thought I was crazy, but if it works I'll be the the one laughing while playing the UBT tour with full sponsorship, if not I've lost nothing anyway so why not try it. Worst they can say is no!

Just remenber until 5 years so so ago you never heard of that many poker players being sponsored either. It's a new ride and it is open for anybody that wants to hop on.

I just hope the ride gets bigger and better for the BJ tournament players.

 

TX: Gall Darn It:

.....What you talking about Willis? Misplaced post, or what. Yeah. Hooray. I said before. Good for you. Darrrell has creds. You have creds. Someone might take a chance on boat of yous creds. But, dey gonna ha ha at a lot of de udders who bring that up. Golfers, bowlers, badmitten, whatever, have to have some kind of track record for an agent to front them.

I can dog and pony. I can shine and dance(well not with the best of them), but....but....but. What the hey, everyone make a call. It'd be like GSN.

 

sponsored

How do you get sponsored??

 

douchekitty:

Call TX: He'll hook you up!

 

nice posts, going pro, and luck

Before I make my other posts regarding other subject matters I would like to hide in here my apology for not being able to contribute more often and for temporary orphaning some of the threads I was involved with.
I still manage to read absolutely every single post here, usually at some weird, to some, hours of the night, while I share Internet time while multitasking. My thanks to all members for so many personal, witty, insightful, and in many other respects very special posts, you know who you are.

I’ve been involved in so many personal and professional projects that sometimes I am not sure who/where/ or what I am. Some of them (projects) involve blackjack -of course, but you will not catch me posting WOW in a post announcing upcoming announcement of a great announcement.

With all the vigor of the events that have recently appeared I have great hopes for the tournament blackjack. The new/old big boys on the block bring about a lot of opportunities. It is not perfect yet, but I have been hopeful that the amount of funds, energy, and dedication invested would attract really the best of the best in all aspects of these enterprises, and exposure to public (call it a scrutiny if you want) would result in some modesty and mold it into an efficient and reliable business and at the same time inspire competition and provide a playing field for recreational and professional tournament blackjack players alike.

Did I say pro? It is possible to be a pro at this game, even now, but one needs to have special talents, dedication, big bankroll and be absolutely crazy. So if you are that special one amongst thousands –you’re welcome!
But if you gotta make some dough, month in - month out, don’t give up your day job. At least for now, for there are simply not enough avenues enabling flow of tournament blackjack cash. Like in any other business you need to have an opportunity to “invest” thousands of dollars as entry fees to earn hundreds as net winnings after deducting expenses. So, you need to be able to participate in tournaments that cumulatively cost millions of dollars in entry fees to earn good income... if you are very good.
All players need to hone their skills as bj tournaments are all about abilities and proficiency; even the Elimination Blackjack tm type is about skills.
I never could understand when people were saying that bj tournaments are xx percent luck and xx percent skill. I beg your pardon, what do they mean? I can estimate that someone is x times better than someone else or x times better than the average player for the given sample group.
On the other hand many winnings are results of an extreme luck combined with some degree of skills, though the skills of winner are lesser than average. Many players don’t recognize how big variance is in bj tournaments. It is difficult to discuss importance of it without stating and agreeing on measurements units and methodology. If we create an imaginary group of 200 tournament players that usually attend typical Vegas event and somehow we objectively know their real skill ranking, it may take many hundreds of tournaments, if not thousands, to have a high percentage certainty that player, let’s say, ranked number twenty will win more money than player ranked number fifty.

S. Yama

 

S Yama-

Thank you for being the voice of reason, and putting things in perspective.

Elyssez

 

Dear S. Yama,

You REALLY read every post? Boy R U a glutton 4 punishment! I guess on those sleepless nights this can be better than a sleeping aid - speaking of my posts only!

I feel like I'm reading the writings of Yoda not Yama. Are you under 3 feet tall? Do you live in a swamp too? Can I come and study at your feet master? I'm trying to "use the force" but all I get are cramps! :joker:

You wrote that it takes special talents, dedication, big bankroll and be absolutely crazy - crap I've only got 1/4 and you all can guess which one that is!

I would add 1 other special ingredient to the mix - an understanding spouse.

Ok, all kidding aside - that you S. Yama for being the voice of reason in the cacophony of yelling here! You are wise and I for one value your posts, insights and contributions immensely although too infrequently

 

Nice summary...

Nice summary, indeed, S. Yama. You have echoed many things some of us have said on these posts, but you actually have the "street cred" (as the kids say) to back it up.

 

Frequency

If the information is concise and right on the money (which it always is), then frequency only adds clutter and clutter can lead to skimming over important posts.

 

K42

Yoda's already spoken for.

I deigned, dubbed the administrator of this site, that some time ago, along about the time I also acknowledged the contributions of Obie-wan-K-Normie.

I'd agree, Yama is already Vishnu, but for the regular contributions and brick-a-bracks, you can't beat our two leading Jedis.

Now this will be the only time, I will attempt to take credit, or blame for anything.

 

Aruba Skill was a evident as the Sun

If Aruba proves anything it proves that skill will always wind up in the front and luck will be evenly distributed over the long run.

The main event was a great example, the starting field was almost comprised of 20% of blackjack players and 10 % of the 20% were top seasoned pros

Yet in a format that eliminates players every 8 hands the number of blackjack players should have decreased in total as we approached the semis and finals. But just the opposite happened and 33 % of the Finalist were hard core seasoned pros who have had multiple success in tournaments over the years.

If the small group of "Luck" believers wants to follow their leader off a cliff in the dark be my guest but try not to make your line of followers any longer than it should be .

For the non believers in luck stay around on these forums and you game and results are guaranteed to improve

Joep

 

New thought on "Luck vs. Skill"

Since I started this much-viewed thread re the old "Luck vs. Skill" argument, I thought I'd rejuvenate it with a fresh quote from the freshly crowned UBT Champion David Matthews:

"Q: How much of your victory do you attribute to skill and how much to luck?
A: I'll go with 70% luck and 30% skill. That isn't to say that skill wasn't a huge part of it, but realistically, gambling tournaments hinge on luck. Take a look at Chris Moneymaker. He has a lot of poker skill, but was also very lucky. Show me a gambling tournament champion that didn't get lucky to win. There aren't many, if any.

In my first tournament where I qualified for the Champions event, my last four hands were blackjack, blackjack, 20, 20. In the Champions event, I was all-in twice where I had to win the hands. If the best player in the world gets a 16, and the newest amateur gets a blackjack, the amateur is going to win. Skill plays more of a role in the long run over many hands, many rounds, and many tournaments."

And, just for the record, I am a believer in the skill component playing a significant part in this whole thing myself! Any new thoughts from the field?

 

Sabre///Mathews comments:

Somewhere, I recall reading that he also relied heavily on progressions. So as much as the "luck" factor may have been involved, he was using a thought process and plan, ahead of time, that "seemed" to prove out.

 

specific

It's difficult to see how one can assign specific values to the luck and skill elements in any game. And it varies from game to game, hand to hand. One can only realistically examine the issue over the long-term. It may be true that a skillful player got very lucky in one tournament and won but to then say that luck is the deciding factor in all tournaments is a mistake.

Cheers

Reachy

 

Just HAD to stir the pot didn’t you?

Let me give you MY take on David’s quote first. His victory in the UBT championship game (single game mind you) was filled with many hand in which he HAD to get the right cards to advance. Is there is skill in getting those cards? Not really.

Think about it – David’s interview was going to be public and ANYTHING that can be done to entice the public to try EBJ and get interested in UBT helps who? People like David (and others who will be “on the tour”).

If David says, “It’s all skill and very little luck. It took me years to get to the point where I am now. Hours of practice and going over tables and hands,” what chance does John Doe stand against that? (BTW – I don’t know this but it is MY personal belief that David HAS spend HOURS, DAYS, WEEKS AND probably MONTHS studying and preparing for BJT). Remember if UBT is to succeed and ascend to the ranks of WSOP or WPT, then it needs people like John Doe to come out and plunk down the money. So I believe David’s statement, while truthful, was probably tailored to the masses.

How about the bets? To me that’s what TBJ comes down to – skill in bet placement. I can’t control my cards but I can control my bets. When I get a 10 versus a 5 do I double down or just hit? To me, THAT’s where the skill factor comes into play.

I was in a game recently, hand 14, and saw a player bet ½ BR (30,000) [table ranged from 50-20K]. They got a hard 14 versus a dealer face. This player then doubles down on a hard 14. Dealer went on to bust and it revealed the player got a 4 for 18 and doubled their money. Skill? Hardly! That was a bone headed play and he/she got lucky! It is my belief that you might get away with something like that once or twice but if you keep doing that in the long run you'll get burned!

As for percentages of luck versus skill – hard to call that one. I’ve had “lucky tables” and “unlucky tables”. That is why I don’t have the same betting technique for every single game I play. Sometimes I bet minimum – sometimes progressions and sometimes I bust out and watch from the sidelines.

 

K-41 and a half:

I know, most of the time, I'm uninteligible.

But, I heartily disagree with your assertion of tailoring for the masses. Yellow Submarine in other sources, perhaps even in
ALL-IN Mag talked of the skill factor. And I believe he would rather assert that advantage than try to present himself as a poster boy for the average JOE. um Norm, um oh shmoe. I know, without proof(imagine that) that his approach was well thought out and strategic and more formulated than luck.

 

I'm with noman

I don't think saying a game has a massive luck factor will bring any more people to the table, certainly not on a consistent basis, and I don't believe that's why David Matthews talked about luck/skill as he did anyway (it'd be great if he posted here what he did mean to say ). I certainly wouldn't play a game that minimised skill compared to luck and any players who came because they thought that luck element was large would soon realise otherwise and disappear away again.

The more I think about the luck/skill debate the less important I think it is. I'm just a recreational player and I play for enjoyment and a challenge. Skill definitely elevates a player over the "average" and that's good enough for me. I'm still BR+ at the moment so I'm happy

And, yet again, I still feel that these sorts of posts and comments reflect a lack of confidence, an inferiority complex if you like, within the "game" of TBJ that it is a "poor man's" poker.

Just some thoughts from the other side of the pond...

Cheers

Reachy