Reachy/Sabrejack Showdown Analysis

I believe so. I can't see any reason not to hit in those circumstances. Your error was one of arithmetic, not logic.


P.S. So have you tried out any UK bricks-and-mortar casinos? Since finding that they have worse than normal rules at Stanley casinos I've been wondering if they have better than normal rules (or number of decks)anywhere.

The norm, which I had thought universal, is -
6-Deck, ENHC, S17, Dbl 9,10,11, DAS,
Not allowed to split 4s, 5s, or 10s, (I think that's it)
No insurance except for even money BJ,
No Surrender.

 

I thought I'd had a brain fart

I was beginning to worry that I had completely missunderstood everything. Yes, you're right, it was my maths not my reasoning (thank god!)

As for the casinos, no I haven't visited one. I was going to a Grovesnor in Plymouth but got sick and couldn't go. Need to re-arrange it.

My brother who lives in Southampton on the other hand goes quite often but is by no means an AP. I've only recently convinced him that it's quite easy to remember BS and that he should at least do that. There are quite a few casinos in that area and I intend to visit one on my next visit to him. However I do believe that CSMs are involved at at least one of his regular casinos. Shame.

Cheers

Reachy

 

Changed scenario

OK Reachy, I retract what I said about you not understanding the concept. Your problem in this case is that the numbers got muddled in your brain. Happens to all of us and anyone who denies that is flat out lying. Now as for you next question:

Now you have a different scenario. Hitting with a resulting loss or surrendering leaves you in virtually the same position. Depending on BR1 & BR2's bets, you most likely will need a swing on the last hand to win but now you have enough bullets to fire to make the swing viable even with a loss on the second from last hand. Therefore, you should hit that 16 on the second from last hand. If you get lucky you'll find yourself as BR1 going into the last hand (but of course you knew that).

Since the subject matter has turned to UK casinos, I have a question. From talking to a couple from the UK on one of my visits to Las Vegas, I was led to believe that the casinos in the UK are very formal. Men and women dressed to the 9s. Is this true?

 

Dressing up

The door policy tends to be 'smart casual', so you might not get in if you are wearing jeans and a T-shirt. In general though, I doubt they turn many people away, not when they've got money to spend.

In terms of what people actually wear, I imagine it varies greatly. Certainly I haven't given too much thought to my own attire, but it might be fun to dress up like James Bond one time.

Some places may be a lot more formal than others too. There are places that charge an exhorbitant annual membership fee and are really just exclusive clubs where, as well as spending your money on over-priced food and drink, you can also throw it away at the gaming tables.

 

Thanks

Even though this thread has taken on a UK casino bent now, just wanted to say thanks for all the thought here. I believe that one could summarize that it was tough to call which strategy between hit and surrender in the orig. fact set is the out-and-out best given the circumstances.

I would certainly say that EV would not apply as most now seem to agree on this thread. It is useful in a normal playing situation (even in a tournament setting at times), but traditional EV figures are not calculated with any tournament strategy (or player vs. player) thinking in mind.

In the end, firm in my mind was the following:

Hit: 24.5% chance of winning my bet on the hand
Stand: 16.7% "
Surrender: 0% "

Thus, my decision to hit and take a crack at two of two possible chances to recover. Betting a bit more or less than I did is probably good advice though.

See you all "out there"!--Sabresport/Sabrejack

 

smart casual maybe

I defer to Colin on this one as he has actually visited a casino in the UK but my understanding is that although you don't need to wear a morning suit and top hat, smart casual maybe the minimum. That means no trainers (sneakers), t-shirts or jeans. They may have stricter rules at some of the posher london clubs involving ties and the like. Don't even try getting in in hawaiian shirts, big baggy shorts, high top sneakers and baseball caps though as you will be shown the door ! I know what you all dress like, I've seen documentaries!

Cheers

Reachy

Ps. Not sure what the rules would be on cowboy hats but I know you have to remove all spurs from boots and leather chaps are a definte no-no! Unless you want to go to the club next door of course but that's called Heaven and has a largely male clientele .