Second to last hand...

in a hurry

My speed bet would be $2,000.

Covers hi, low, and bj. Should have best chance of being Br1 going into last hand. at which time I would take the low.

tgun

 

My new rule of thumb...

If you have more than 2xs your only opponent, bet 2xs whatever your opponent bets on the second to last hand. If both players have the same result, the last hand becomes meaningless and you win. This is just a quick rule of thumb, not always the best bet, but when youre pressed for time I think its a good quick and dirty rule to go by. Thanks for everyone for help in this thread.

T-gun, good luck to you and the Mrs. in OK. Represent us well. See you both when you get back.
Rounder21

 

rounder21,

Very dangerous RULE OF THUMB unless you like to live on the edge. You can easily blow a substantial lead this way. If you want a RULE OF THUMB or your mind turns to mush, better to match your opponent rather than go 2X.

 

Can you give an example toolman...

with numbers, where it would be better to match your opponent's bet in the given situation than double it? I cannot think of one. Remember my rule of thumb is only when your only opponent is all-in on second to last hand and your br is more than 2xs what he/she has. When these criteria are met, I cannot think of an example where it would be better to match your opponents bet than to double it.

Good Cards,
Rounder21

 

Revised opinion

OK guys, I've done a more comprehensive analysis using excel rather than the abacus I was using last night and I've changed my mind about the best course of action. Sorry!

I believe I underestimated the power of the 6.5K bet and slightly overestimated the 22K bet. I now think that betting 6.5K on the penultimate hand now gives a probability of tournament success of 88.7% and the 22K bet gives 85.3%.

It'd be great if someone more knowledgeable and experienced in these matters would confirm or dispute my figures. There is potential for error at several points...

Cheers

Reachy

 

comfort level

I don't want to have to surrender to get the low unless I'm trapping. I've got the low and high already. If I surrender I give up some chances of winning. That 12% swing has beat me before. I want more than a min. bet lead going into the final hand to cover a loss by me and a push by Br2. I'd rather get beat by that swing on the last hand than on the 2nd last hand. A lockout going into the final would be great but is the risk worth it? What if Br1 loses and Br2 gets a BJ? If 10,000 is max. he could end up with 45,000. I know BJ is only a 5% chance, I've been beat by a BJ many times.(but I'm extremely unlucky)


bet win/win lose/lose win/push lose/win win/BJ push/BJ lose/BJ

Br1 23,500 2,500 25,500 21,000 26,000 21,000 26,000 23,500 21,000

Br2 10,000 10,000 20,000 0 10,000 20,000 25,000 25,000 25,000

Bottom line: I would not risk being Br1 when betting 1st on last hand. Therefore, my comfortable bet would be 2,500 on 2nd last hand.
Then min bet on last hand if it goes that far.

tgun
sorry about the alignment of columns
Thanks rounder, we'll do our best. Wish you were coming.

 

Close call...

Later I realized that the 22k bet win on penultimate by br1 doesnt protect against a last hand all in bj by br2 when there is win/win on penultimate. It would leave br1 with 45,000 if he bet minimum and lost and br2 would also end with 45,000. Only a min. bet push or win by br1 would protect against a last hand bj by br2.

I wander if it would be much different if br1 had a little more. If BR1 had 25.5 k for example. and BR2 had 10k. BR2 all-in with 10k and br1 bets 25k. A loss/loss on penultimate leaves br1 winner with 500 left. If br2 gets bj penultimate, then its still out of reach on last hand if br1 wins the hand (unless br2 gets another bj). If there is win/win on penultimate (no bjs) then its out of reach even if br2 gets bj on last hand (I think). This is too much thinking for my simple mind. :laugh:

Good Cards,
Rounder21

 

This is good

What's funny is all the different answers to this "relatively simple" question.

Now the hard part - figuring out the percentages of the 6500 vs 2000 vs 20,000 in 30 seconds or less!

Personally I CAN'T do it that quickly - I haven't found the implant that lets me calculate the optimal bet yet! But I haven't given up!

In my opinion this is where BJT.com members have an advantage over TBJ players who don't visit this site. Why? Running simulations like this really help me when I get into a live/online situation that is similar to this. To be honest with you I would never have considered a 10,000 or 20,000 bet as BR1.

Why? I did that ONCE on Global - correlated with BRL and got swung. It pissed me off to no extent! :flame: I vowed to NEVER do that again and I haven't. My reasoning wasn't based on math, statistics or probability - just because I had gotten burned in the past.

Thanks to Rounder it brings this issue to the forefront and helps me to come to a mathematical conclusion and solution. Thanks everyone who contributed to this.

The thing I like BEST about this? Realizing that there is someone out there playing more agressive than me!

 

If I illustrate with numbers you or anyone else can always come back and say "yes, but" so I prefer to keep the discussion on this point based on principals. After all, it's the principal we're talking not numbers. Also, as you know, we're talking about a RULE OF THUMB to be applied when one is confused as to what bet to make and/or time is running out and you hear the dealer say "10 seconds".

By matching your opponent's bet you are taking a more conservative approach as opposed to betting 2x his/her bet. Depending on circumstances, you are pretty much guaranteeing that you will be the chip leader going into the final hand were you will be betting first. And as you know, having the chip lead gives you the advantage even if you bet first.

Depending on the amount of BR2's bet, if you bet 2x as a RULE OF THUMB you could very easily be over betting. A simple loss by BR1 can wipe out a substantial lead which would put you in a very bad situation on the last hand. And a swing can change your situation from very good to very bad the instant the dealer turns over that "I don't believe it" card.

To put it another way, BR1 worked the whole session to gain a substantial lead and it would be unwise to risk blowing that lead by making a huge bet without a well thought out reason for doing so. If I were BR2, keeping in mind that I'm in a very bad situation, I'd look on BR1's 2x RULE OF THUMB bet as my best opportunity to catch up.

 

Reachy,

Thank You, Thank You, Thank You. By making your last post you saved me a day of agony of trying to figure out your calculations. I's like having an extra day of life.

PS: Just to keep your mind active, in a short time I will be posting another "second from last hand" proposal as a response to a different thread in this "teaser" category. Watch for it, you may find it interesting.

 

BJ protection

The 22K bet doesn't protect you 100% from the BJ but what it does do is allow you to take the low against an all-in win by BR2 whilst covering a BR2 BJ with a 5K win of your own.

BR1 - 45.5K
BR2 - 20K

Bets:

BR1 - 5k
br2 - 20k

If BR1 started with 25.5K instead of 23.5K then he could bet 25K and lock up the tourney win if they win that hand.

Cheers

Reachy

 

Holy :cow: Batman!

I can't believe it! I agree 100% with EVERYTHING in this post from Toolman! What's the world coming to? Is there a planetary alignment neight? Or have I just finally seen the light?

Oh no, I'm getting that warm fuzzy feeling! What's that?.......

 

Yes, it's the planets. I can't think of another reason. :laugh:

Well it's FRIDAY, go to it. You need about another dozen posts today to meet you average.

 

2500 bet

tgun

I put your 2500 bet through the same process as I did with the other bets and it comes out weaker than both (6500 & 22000) with a probability of success of 77.8% (vs. 88.7% vs 85.3%). I think the reason is that in the win win scenario you will have less than a 1/3 max bet lead which really leaves you exposed when betting first.

I'm not 100% sure of the veracity of my numbers so take with salt, low sodium if you can get it

Cheers

Reachy